Islam’s front line is not in Europe or Ulema: time to catch up with your flock

After the recent spate of attacks by Islamic extremists in Europe many have suggested the international media mans the front line against Jihadist Islamic terrorism. Undoubtedly, the Western media constitutes a prime target for Islamic extremists, especially since the provocative cartoons of the Prophet Mohammed became a rallying cry for opposing sides in the debate. However, the real front line for the war of ideas rests neither in Paris nor the rest of the Western world. The true battleground lies in the conservative Islamic heartlands of countries like Pakistan, Egypt or Turkey.

This is a war for the soul of Islam. A war which will be won not by American or NATO soldiers but by Muslim theologians reinterpreting religious edicts in line with the aspirations of the modern Muslim community. These aspirations do not include killing civilians, denying girls' education, making women sit at home or killing polio vaccinators doing their job.

Similar to their non-Muslim counterparts across the world, most Muslims lead humdrum, boring lives. Muslim adults send children to schools, watch their kids start families, become grandparents and lavish affection on their grandchildren. Muslim adults, too, visit dentists and doctors, socialize with friends, watch television and movies.

Muslim hopes and fears are no different from non-Muslim hopes and fears.

Thus, it was encouraging reading the transcript of Egyptian President Sisi's speech to senior Muslim theologians at Al-Azhar University. The Cairo based university is one of the world's oldest and most respected institutions of Islamic learning.

In the speech, Sisi essentially exhorts the Ulema (qualified Islamic theologians) to play a genuine leadership role by returning Islamic dialogue to the realms of normalcy, especially in so far as Islamic law deals with interactions with non-Muslims. In actuality, theologians are simply being asked to endorse the common sense approach to life already employed by the majority of Muslims around the world.

One must applaud Sisi's efforts to galvanize Islamic clerics in the battle for the Islamic mind. Unfortunately, the influence of ultra-conservative clerics fed by a steady diet of petrodollars by oil rich nations remains powerful. It may take many more Islamic philosophers with the fervent vision of Allama Iqbal before a clear consensus about the Reconstruction of Religious Thought in Islam becomes a reality.

Meanwhile, the ordinary Muslim walking the streets of Karachi - not Cannes - is the one in the firing line for her 'moderate' beliefs. By challenging ideas propagated by Islamic extremists in her daily life, she moves us closer to the final victory against obscurantists currently polluting Islamic beliefs.  

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Imran is a business and management consultant. Through his work at Deodar Advisors and the Deodar Diagnostic, Imran improves profits of businesses operating in Singapore and the region. He can be reached at imran@deodaradvisors.com. 

Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria and Mali: still more interventions to come?

Over a decade ago, the United States reacted to the 9/11 attacks with military interventions in Afghanistan and Iraq. Afghanistan's Taliban and Iraq's Saddam Hussein may be history but Islamic extremism is anything but weakened. So, while another attack on the US mainland may not have occurred in the intervening years, US foreign policy successes have been limited at best. Particular if curbing the growth of austere, extremist Islam is defined as a key US policy objective.

A balance sheet of events in the Islamic world since the turn of the century makes poor reading. In the years since America started to proactively (aka militarily) 'defend' its overseas interests, much bad stuff has happened. At the same time and just as important, positive events within the Islamic world have been in short supply.

Afghanistan: The war is winding down and the US seems only interested in making sure Pakistan releases all the Taliban captives held in its custody. Afghanistan may not be another Vietnam but it is hard to argue for a clear-cut American victory. In fact, Islamic radicalism in Pakistan has increased partly due to the effects of the US intervention in Afghanistan.

Islamic terrorism nearly brought Pakistan to its knees a few years ago, with the Pakistani Taliban attempting to move out of its traditional havens in the tribal areas and into 'settled' areas of Pakistan like the Swat Valley and Peshawar's outlying districts. The immediate danger may be past for Pakistan but political instability and Taliban inspired violence will negatively affect the country for some years to come.

Iraq: Saddam's gone and in its place is a nation divided along ethnic and sectarian lines. The Kurds have their piece. Sunni – Shia bloodletting continues with alarming frequency. Iraq's minority Christian community, a beneficiary of Saddam's secular nationalism, is struggling to maintain its freedoms.

The real winner in Iraq is former president Bush's arch-enemy: Iran. Shia politicians have taken over Iraqi state institutions and provide Iran a potent platform through which to play the centuries old Persian – Arab rivalry. The heightened Shia – Sunni tensions in the Arab Gulf, particularly Bahrain, can be attributed partly to Iran's greater presence within the Arab world.

Egypt: It seems Egyptians wanted democracy as much as their Iraqi brothers. Egypt did not wait for American troops to bring them democratic freedoms. Instead, following Tunisia's lead, Egyptians took to the streets and brought down longstanding dictator, Mubarak. Subsequently, Mubarak's nemesis, the Muslim Brotherhood has assumed control of the Egyptian state.

The 'legitimization' of the Muslim Brotherhood through the formation of Egypt's government is significant. Arguably, the Brotherhood is the spiritual Godfather of Al-Qaeeda and other Islamic extremist offshoots. How the Brotherhood's leadership uses its new found powers, prestige and organs of the Egyptian state may be decisive in the battle for Islam's silent majority.

Syria: Another bastion of secular Arab nationalism is tottering and on the verge of collapse. In Syria, Western intervention has been crucial in allowing Islamic extremists to create another battleground and, possibly, ultimately control the reins of a recognized nation- state. Islam's historic Sunni - Shia rivalry will most certainly be exacerbated by events in the Levant as Syria's civil war deepens. As in Iraq and Egypt, Syrian Christians will be big losers as Islamist influence further pervades the country.

Africa: Africa has been an unfortunate continent in so many ways for so long. Islamic extremism can now be added to the woes of the African continent.

From Nigeria in the west to Somalia in the east, there is no denying radical Islam has found itself a new playground. Lest one wishes to give Africa the benefit of the doubt, one can throw Mali into the mix for good measure. Oh and there are also thousands of unaccounted weapons and trained jobless Tuareg fighters – formerly part of Libyan leader Gaddafi's military – looking for a piece of land to settle.

Libya itself is not handling the transition to democracy too well. Essentially the country is divided into fiefdoms controlled by different tribes and groupings, with the active participation of Sunni extremists.

Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC): The GCC is mentioned not because several Islamists have been arrested in the normally sedate United Arab Emirates (UAE). Or the troubles in Bahrain continue and threaten to spill over into Saudi Arabia. No, the GCC is important because of Saudi Arabia's influence (and cash) within the wider Islamic world.

In Saudi Arabia, the most pertinent issue is the pace of social reforms and the development of civil society. Surely, reforms are proceeding apace. Women have been nominated into the country's consultative assembly. Nonetheless, real reforms in empowering women and co-opting females into mainstream society are still missing from the agenda. Separate but equal is not only expensive but does not work.

9/11 is understood primarily as an act of war against the US and western interests – and it most certainly was such an attack. However, it is the Islamic world which has suffered the greatest repercussions since September. The show of aggression not only prompted western military interventions in a host of Muslim countries – the list appears to grow annually – but has resulted in introspective soul searching by the Islamic world. During this intellectual exercise, Muslims have killed each other in large numbers with both randomness and precision. Undoubtedly, all the blame cannot be placed at Washington's door. However, the US might better serve international security by nudging reforms in the Saudi kingdom rather than sending troops to foreign shores at the first hint of trouble. The ripple effects from a reforming Saudi society will be positively felt far and wide in the Islamic world.

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Imran is a business and management consultant. Through his work at Deodar Advisors and the Deodar Diagnostic, Imran improves profits of businesses operating in Singapore and the region. He can be reached at imran@deodaradvisors.com. 

Africa's radical Islam: Benghazi and Cairo as harbingers of the future

It is not easy to best the fury of Pakistan's mullahs but several post 'Arab Spring' nations have done so in the last few days. In normal times, Pakistan's radical clerics will be the first to rile up people to destroy public infrastructure whenever there is a 'threat' to Islam. So far, Pakistan's mullahs have been unusually quiet.

However, the furor over the anti-Islam film has caused widespread unrest within other parts of the Islamic world. The US ambassador to Libya was killed allegedly by an outraged mob in Benghazi. Additionally, the US embassy in Cairo was overrun by protestors who burnt the US flag and replaced it with an 'Islamic' flag. Protests have also spread to Tunisia and Sudan.

Clearly, Pakistan's radical clerics have other things on their mind these days. Either they are busy preparing for the forthcoming general election, due by March 2013. Or they have agreed a separate 'deal' with President Zardari to keep the peace. It is impossible to believe that Pakistan's clerics have changed their stripes. They must have calculated this not a politically opportune time to raise the heat in the country.



The new face of Egyptian state television

On the other hand, the politics of post 'regime change' Libya and Egypt have become clearer following the reaction to the film, "The Innocence of Muslims." Undoubtedly, the alleged identity of the key filmmaker being a Coptic Christian makes the issue more sensitive in Egypt, given the size of the country's Christian Coptic minority. Nevertheless, in Mubarak's Egypt the storming of the US embassy in Cairo would have been a remote possibility. Egyptian state's machinery was good not only for repression but also for maintaining order on the country's streets.

Likewise in Libya. Unless 'attacks' were intentionally orchestrated by Colonel Gaddafi own apparatus, foreign diplomatic missions in Libya were safe. In this instance, not only was the US consulate in Benghazi overrun but the US ambassador was also killed - an act of war in normal times.

As time progresses, the real face of the Arab Spring reveals itself. Egyptian state television news presenters donning scarves is simply the presentable face. The real danger lies in the unseen elements lurking behind the revolutions: these are the people who conspire to impose wahhabi Islam on all Muslims by force or threat of force.

The attacks on US interests in Libya and Egypt were neither random nor isolated. The world can expect more upheaval as radical Islam seeps into the mainstream political structure in African countries like Egypt, Tunisia, Mali, Nigeria and Libya.

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Imran is a business and management consultant. Through his work at Deodar Advisors and the Deodar Diagnostic, Imran improves profits of businesses operating in Singapore and the region. He can be reached at imran@deodaradvisors.com.

Islam’s civil war and the post 9/11 dialectic

Near term, it's difficult to be optimistic about the Islamic world. Virtually all corners of this diverse grouping face issues of some sort. The latest entrant to the a-list of Muslim problem countries is Syria.

Syria has slowly but surely descended into a chaotic civil war.

The sad fact is that Syria, along with Tunisia and Iraq were relative success stories for the Islamic world. These were reasonably integrated nations with high percentages of non-Muslim minorities living peaceably in their midst. Women's rights were well respected. Physical infrastructure was, if not good, at least passable; certainly, at 'Second World' standards and at par with many parts of Eastern Europe.

Our Lady of Dormition Melkite Greek Catholic Patriarchal Cathedral, Damascus, Syria.

Unfortunately, bad politics makes for bad economics. And when politics deteriorates into wars and endemic civil unrest then economics becomes a subservient part of the national development equation.

Syria must be analyzed within the wider context of the Saudi – Iranian rivalry for regional dominance. Whatever comes next in Syria, one fact is clear: reactionary Islamists will increase their influence in an otherwise socially progressive part of the Arab world. That Saudis bankroll a large part of the rebel Syrian army should be a good indicator of future influence in Damascus.

For its part, Iraq may be on the mend following the US inspired Iraq war. However, if things get ugly in Iran, Iraq cannot escape its geography. Iraq's large Shia population will ensure the country pays a price for any Israeli - US intervention in Iraq's eastern neighbour, Iran.

The drama unfolding in Tunisia and Egypt foreshadows similar encroachments by Islamists in other parts of the Islamic world. More religious interference, formal and informal, in state affairs is a certainty in most Muslim countries.

Few will escape Islam's 'new normal.' Gone are the old post-colonial westernized political elites. These cast members have long been replaced by home grown, often petrodollar sponsored, religious conservatives fed on a staple of Muslim Brotherhood style ideology.

Amongst the most dangerous recent developments, the dialectic between Muslim and Non-Muslim nations has dramatically changed since 9/11. All western actions are put through an Islamic 'religious' paradigm. Likewise, the western world also tends to think in terms of a monolithic Islamic world. Islamic extremists from geographies as diverse as Algeria, Somalia, Afghanistan and Indonesia are unceremoniously lumped into the same 'dronable' problem. As far as Islamists are concerned, the maxim that 'all politics is local' has been conveniently discarded.

Statue of Saladin in Damascus, Syria.

Undoubtedly, the Islamic world is in a mess – and Muslim pride and egos are at low ebb. Muslims themselves must accept a large portion of the blame for the current state of affairs.

Nevertheless, it is darkest before the dawn. Given the depths to which parts of the Islamic world have recently plummeted I presume it can only get better from here.

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Imran is a business and management consultant. Through his work at Deodar Advisors and the Deodar Diagnostic, Imran improves profits of businesses operating in Singapore and the region. He can be reached at imran@deodaradvisors.com.