Military coups just aren’t what they used to be!

In the good old days the military simply had to secure key sites like the radio, television broadcasters, airports, other transport hubs and newspaper offices. Once the sites were under control, then detain the ‘disputed’ head of government along with her key associates. Finally, put some helmeted soldiers decked out in combat gear on the streets of major cities, preferably with some tanks nearby for the ‘wow’ factor. The civil service and judiciary naturally fell into line by taking new oaths of loyalty or were simply fired from their roles. 

(Source: Pexels.com)

All of the above happened in darkness and in typically the space of a few hours between midnight and dawn. Depending on the size of the country a few thousand loyal soldiers were all that was required for a successful coup. If a more detailed playbook were required then ‘Coup D’Etat: a Practical Handbook’ by Edward Luttwak would serve the purpose.

No more. That was the last century. Like many similar handbooks, Luttwak’s book is obsolete. Things are different in the new millennium.

The first sign that something was amiss came in July 2016 with the failed coup attempt in Turkey.

Yes, Turkey. A country where the military is revered and coups are (were) a normal fact of life. Despite these two factors, the coup was neither able to dethrone President Erdogan nor install a military council to run affairs of state.

Today the world is witnessing the ongoing efforts by Myanmar’s military to unseat the civilian government of Aung San Suu Kyi. At the time of writing, it seems unclear if efforts by Min Aung Hlaing, the military commander leading the coup attempt, will succeed. The coup is certainly not ‘done and dusted’ the way it would have been in the past.

What has changed in the last two decades to make successful, naked military coups a rarity?

News Monopoly

Remember the days everyone read newspapers in the morning at breakfast? Then families gathered together in the evening to watch the news on national television. And only the news that was fit to print was printed. 

International newspapers often arrived a few days late and circulation was easy to control. There were no international television broadcasters. Even radio broadcasts by international politically motivated broadcasters such as Voice of America or Radio Free Europe had limited success in shaping opinions in target countries.

In other word, national governments’ had a monopoly on information. Even print publications of the ‘free’ press could be coerced by into reporting with a particular slant or just simply not reporting certain events. A low ranking officer posted at the office of the major newsprint companies and the national radio / television broadcasters was sufficient to manage news flow.

(Source: Pexels.com)

Along came social media and broke the information monopoly paradigm. Not only has information become virtually impossible to control but the proliferation of disinformation, often politically motivated, has also become routine. Moreover, international news broadcasters are regularly watched in living room televisions all around the world.

Consequently, managing negative news – or any news for that matter - associated with a military coup is impossible. No state maintains a monopoly on news anymore. This less controlled movement of information and the immediacy of many social media platforms also allow ordinary citizens to mobilize protest movements in a manner not possible in the past.

Global Superpower Rivalries

The Cold War between the US and its Soviet rival spawned many doctrines. All were expedient for their time but among the most relevant (and loved) doctrine for coup makers was the Kirkpatrick Doctrine. The doctrine was postulated by the former US Ambassador to the United Nations Jeane Kirkpatrick in a 1979 essay.

In her essay, Kirkpatrick made a distinction between Totalitarian and Authoritarian regimes. While totalitarian regimes try and control all aspects of a society and its citizens – including thought, authoritarian regimes try and control only certain behaviours. Additionally, authoritarian regimes are more amenable to gradual reform thus making them easier to move towards democratic norms. 

In essence, the doctrine was Cold War influenced intellectual justification for supporting authoritarian dictatorships from Argentina to the Philippines - as long as these rulers supported free enterprise (read permitted US businesses to operate freely) and sided with the US in its battle against Soviet inspired communism.

In practice, the Kirkpatrick Doctrine gave a blank check to coup makers to overthrow leftist regimes. Once in control, these same coup makers could expect continued support from the Free World until the ‘threat’ from communism was defeated. Support for such right wing authoritarian regimes was only withdrawn if / when the optics of maintaining domestic control became untenable.

Corporate Dollars and the Rise of Social Media

In a bygone era, large multinational corporations often acted as catalysts for coups. Whether it was a left leaning government that needed ‘course correction’ or a privileged monopolistic position in a market was under threat by government policy changes, corporations were in the thick of things – typically on the side of the coup instigators.

Note the origins of the term, Banana Republic, which stemmed from the installation of a military government via a coup in Honduras in the early 1900s. The coup was championed and funded by an American businessman and founder of a fruit company with significant economic interests in the Honduran fruit industry.

Things did not change because multinationals miraculously grew a conscience and stopped supporting dictatorial rulers. That was a slow process and relied largely on consumer pressure. It reached critical mass in the 1980s as campus activists pressured companies doing business in apartheid South Africa to divest their holdings.

Activists held that by doing business with a racist regime in apartheid South Africa, large corporations like Bank of America and General Motors, were helping to prop up the system. Initially, this led to the establishment of the Sullivan Principles, a voluntary code of business ethics devised by a Baptist Minister, for companies involved in South Africa. However, ultimately it forced businesses to rethink their presence in apartheid South Africa.

Over the last several decades, the trend of social activism has entered the mainstream with concepts like ESG – environmental, social and governance, becoming an essential part of the framework used to review and analyze corporations. With the rise of citizen journalism and social media it is virtually impossible for companies to cover up unethical practices, including openly supporting regime change in foreign countries. On the contrary, companies have found it almost essential to implement positive and transparent ESG policies to cater to rising social awareness among contemporary consumers.

(Source:Pexels.com)

The New Normal

The generals in Myanmar are finding out the hard way that coups are an anachronism of the last century. To be sure, the Thai military successfully executed a coup in 2014 under General Prayut likely because the coup was quickly legitimized by a much revered monarch, the late King Bhumibol. The late King’s actions must be considered as a major factor in the success of the 2014 coup. Arguably, Thailand is the exception that proves the rule.  

A new balance in civil-military relations has been precipitated by changing social conditions. While there is no clear rule for ‘new’ civil – military relationships the experience of Turkey, Thailand and Pakistan are illustrative.

In Turkey, the once all powerful Turkish military has had to swallow humble pie. From being able to change a government by issuing a memo, Coup by Memorandum, the Turkish military now plays a less powerful role under a powerful president. In Thailand, the military has so far resisted meaningful change. Though it is hard to predict how events will unfold in the coming years. In Pakistan, the military’s dominance remains a key part of the state power equation. Partly this is due to the military’s relationship with the current Prime Minister Imran Khan and partly because the military establishment has been careful in playing its hand. The possibility of the Pakistani military establishment overplaying its cards a la Myanmar must loom large with senior Pakistani generals.

As for Myanmar, only time will tell how the situation will play out. Even if the generals do survive intact until the next promised elections it is clear the military junta’s operational freedoms have already been circumscribed by domestic protests.

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Imran is a Singapore based Tour Guide with a special interest in arts and history. Imran has lived and worked in several countries during his past career as an international banker. He enjoys traveling, especially by train, as a way to feed his curiosity about the world and nurture his interest in photography. He is available on Instagram (@imranahmedsg); twitter (@grandmoofti) and can be contacted at imran.ahmed.sg@gmail.com.

Radicalizing ASEAN's Muslims: ASEAN's Myanmar problem

It is a sad day when in 2017 a Nobel Peace Prize winner presides over a process which the United Nations refers to as ethnic cleansing. Unfortunately, there is no doubting the harsh reality of the Myanmar government's actions in Rakhine province. They occur daily, within Singapore's neighborhood and by a fellow ASEAN member state.

Singapore continues to struggles with its response to Myanmar's attrocious behavior. Certainly, the 'ASEAN Way' suggests there should be no interference in the domestic affairs of another ASEAN member state. This is a wise principle. Until recently, the axiom has served ASEAN well and allowed the organization to grow roots.

An old photograph of a mosque in Akyab. Akyan is now known as Sittwe and is the capital of Myanmar's Rakhine province. (Source: Wikipedia)

However, the humanitarian crisis in Myanmar's western Rakhine province no longer an internal matter. It has transformed into a regional crisis. The events unfolding in Myanmar's Rakhine state have grave security implications for Singapore, Malaysia and other ASEAN states.

Consequently, the time has come for Singapore and ASEAN to take a bolder stand in its relationship with Myanmar.

ASEAN is no stranger to violence perpetrated by Islamic extremists. Indonesia's off and on problem with such violence threatens to hit the headlines on any given day. Indeed, the region's traditionally 'non-Arab' strand of Islam has weakened enough to make the threat of Islamist violence in Malaysia so pervasive that Malaysian authorities arrest potential 'Jihadis' with alarming regularity. Even at the fringe of the Malay world in southern Thailand, religious-ethnic violence is a disturbingly routine affair.

Nonetheless, it is the Philippines which takes the (Islamic extremist) crown. Despite a 'strongman' leader the country faces an Iraq-like scenario with militants apparently loyal to Islamic State (ISIS) having taken over Marawi - a mid-size city - and held it captive for the previous four months. The siege to recapture Marawi is ongoing at the time of writing.

A photo dating from British colonial days of a mosque in Akyab (now Sittwe) the capital of Myanmar's Rakhine province. (Source: Wikipedia)

The events in Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Myanmar may seem far removed from the Singapore's CCTV flooded sterile streets. However, in today's global village they can neve be far from Singapore's shores. These Islamic extremists feed a deviant belief structure which menacingly lurks below Singapore's ostensibly calm surface. 

Starting with the 2001 plot to bomb Yishun subway station stretching to the recent arrests of an Islamic State radicalized female infant care giver and two auxiliary police officers Singapore is not immune to Islamic extremism. On the contrary, based on the number of arrests, the threat to Singapore from Islamic extremists has increased in recent years.

The Rohingya Crisis in Myanmar feed a sense of injustice within Singapore (and the region's) Muslim community. Furthermore, the Singapore government's lack of condemnation of the Myanmar government's brutal behaviour risks alienating Muslims from Singapore's Islamic establishment. Singapore may be one of the largest foreign investors in Myanmar hoping for the crisis to miraculously disappear; but Singapore ignores the Rohingya crisis at its own peril.

Imran is an adventurer, blogger, consultant, guide, photographer, speaker, traveler and a banker in his previous life. At the time of writing, Imran is living in Rashidabad until December 2017 while a volunteer at the SST Public School. He is available on twitter (@grandmoofti); Instagram (@imranahmedsg) and can be contacted at imran.ahmed.sg@gmail.com.

Myanmar’s Aung San Suu Kyi’s and the Benazir dilemma

Myanmar is the latest poster child of global democratic and economic reform. The world's capitalists are beating a path to Yangon's door hoping to get a piece of the pie. Much of the new found optimism is due to the legitimacy granted recent changes by celebrated human rights activist Aung San Suu Kyi. Her participation in the last elections is the most visible example of change in process.

Surely, there is ample reason to be sanguine about Myanmar's future but is the world getting ahead of itself? Media reports suggest Suu Kyi herself seems to think so – she cautioned the world against 'reckless optimism' at a recent speech in Bangkok.

I can appreciate Suu Kyi's sentiments. I was in Pakistan in 1988 when Pakistan's own 'beacon of freedom and democracy' – the late Benazir Bhutto - returned after many years in self-imposed exile. After a decade of stifling pseudo-Islamic rule by the late President Zia ul-Haq, Pakistan's democratic era was to lead the nation to freedom and prosperity.

Instead, the 1990s are lamented as Pakistan's lost decade, much like the 2010s look like becoming. Democracy brought nothing but instability.

Yes, Pakistan had democracy – much like today's circus comprising mainly of gangsters and power brokers more concerned about maintaining the perquisites of control than improving the welfare of the common citizen. One needs to look no farther than President Zardari to get an idea of the quality of people currently running the country. Is it any surprise Pakistan's condition has significantly deteriorated in the last few years of 'democratic freedoms?'

Ok, I concede that comparing Suu Kyi with Benazir is a tad unfair to Suu Kyi. For starters, I don't believe Suu Kyi has a spouse comparable to Pakistan's disgraceful President. Nevertheless, Suu Kyi will face at least some of the same obstacles which plagued Benazir's stint as the Muslim world's first female Prime Minister.

Reckless optimism is a nice phrase to capture sentiments which naturally get ahead of themselves, especially amongst the youth. Ordinary citizens will demand change and improvement at a rapid pace – a rate not likely permitted by Myanmar's establishment.

Myanmar's generals will resist change every step of the way. Helping the reactionary forces will be the privileged classes which benefit from an economy designed to buttress the existing regime. It will take more than a few months to dismantle the control systems put in place over a span of years by a military junta.

Certainly, Myanmar and Pakistan are also not comparable in many ways. Myanmar exists in a friendlier neighbourhood. There is no foreign occupation of any of Myanmar's neighbours. Trade links with neighbours should be normal – not a legacy of past wars and hostilities.

Hope makes the world go round. Aung San Suu Kyi brings hope of a better future to Myanmar's people. That is part of Suu Kyi's attraction. However, it is no surprise that Suu Kyi herself wishes to temper expectations of change. She understands the difficulties in reforming a society, especially one as tightly controlled as Myanmar.

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Imran is a business and management consultant. Through his work at Deodar Advisors, Imran improves the profitability of businesses operating in Singapore and the region. He can be reached at imran@deodaradvisors.com.