Pakistan’s 2013 General Elections: some positives and negatives

Positive

1.   Largest voter turnout in three decades drowns out Islamic militant extremists;

2.   PPP candidates suffer a drubbing! Electorate demonstrates unhappiness with disastrous five years under Zardari and his people. Bhutto aura appears to be fading;

3.   Imran Khan's party goes some way to break the traditional two-party stranglehold on Pakistani politics;

4.   Clear mandate to PML-N;

5.   All politics is local – province's voted according to local issues;

6.   Imran Khan's PTI to most certainly be part of new KPK government – will provide opportunity to party to demonstrate practically PTI's effectiveness at governance;

7.   Many first time voters across the country. The power of the ballot seeps into national consciousness.

Negative

1.   Imran Khan's party splits electorate;

2.   Clear mandate to a party with a dubious /mixed historical track record in governing Pakistan;

3.   Clear divide in voting patterns across the four provinces – national versus provincial politics;

4.   Other than Punjab, likely that governments of three smaller provinces will not be from party forming federal government – will most certainly lead to tensions between Centre and Provinces;

5.   Islamic militants and 'gangster' elements demonstrate ability to carry out violent acts almost at will throughout the country. Law enforcement agencies appear helpless;

6.   Likely that PML-N will soften stance against religious extremists thus setting country back socially. Women's rights and cultural environment to particularly suffer;

7. Secular ANP party virtually wiped out from KPK assemblies.

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Imran is a business and management consultant. Through his work at Deodar Advisors and the Deodar Diagnostic, Imran improves profits of businesses operating in Singapore and the region. He can be reached at imran@deodaradvisors.com. 

Singapore’s future social mix and today's immigration policies

Until recently, population growth through immigration was a major part of the Singapore government's economic growth model. During the last two decades, the island's population has grown by over 60 percent. From a population of approximately three million in 1990, Singapore entered the 2010s with a population of five million.

Prima facie, the population growth policy appears to have worked and generated economic growth on the island. From 1990-2010 (inclusive), the Singapore economy grew at an average GDP growth rate of 6.6 percent. During the same period, the economy contracted only twice: 2001 and 2009.

Nonetheless, there have been some unintended consequences of the government's 'open door policy.' Politically, the People's Action Party (PAP) has seen support amongst Singaporean voters plummet from historically high levels. The last general elections saw several senior PAP personalities lose 'safe' constituencies. While not yet a threat to the PAP's ability to form a government, the opposition has significantly increased its parliamentary representation, including controlling a Group Representation Constituency (GRC).

Another effect of Singapore's liberal immigration policies has been the skyrocketing of domestic real estate prices. Not only have prices of high-end properties in premium districts risen to record highs but resale prices of public housing built by the Housing Development Board (HDB Singapore) has soared.

There has also been a general outpouring of discontent about the impact of 'extra' people on Singapore's limited land mass. The Republic's resources and infrastructure is groaning under the weight of additional persons – literally in the case of the city's subway system. From being unheard of a few years ago, train breakdowns and system delays are now considered 'normal.' Much of the blame lies with the increased load factor and poor maintenance.

There is another side to immigration which Singaporeans have yet to fully experience: the osmosis of new and different cultures into the mainstream of the city's daily culture. The mass of new immigrants from mainland China and India – along with the odd few from 'out of the ordinary' countries like Pakistan – bring with them a different way of seeing the world.

'Mainland' Indians have different dietary habits. Their experience of the caste system's role in society is distinct from the locally born Indian. Likewise, for non-Malay Muslims, the different lens with which they view the world often provides a different interpretation regarding the traditions of Islamic faith and practice.

To be sure, contemporary Singaporeans have every right to express displeasure with any number of government policies. It is their island – they have successfully moved from Third World to First World within one generation. However, from a historical perspective, the recent wave of immigration into Singapore is just a part of the island's centuries old tradition of welcoming economic migrants onto its shores. In the process, the newcomers help transform and rejuvenate Singapore, often in ways which cannot be easily anticipated. At the very least, future Singaporeans can look forward to some interesting fusion food dishes as the most recent mass of migrants build a home for themselves.

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Imran is a business and management consultant. Through his work at Deodar Advisors and the Deodar Diagnostic, Imran improves profits of businesses operating in Singapore and the region. He can be reached at imran@deodaradvisors.com. 

Singapore’s aspiring democrats turn to violence

With the vandalism of Singapore's Cenotaph, politics in the nation crossed another 'Red Line.' Violence has crept into Singapore's political sphere.

Let's be clear, spray painting a national monument is violence, not 'graffiti art.' Sure, the structure was not destroyed. Nor does the damage appear irreparable. However, violence against Singapore's history eats at the nation's soul.

Singapore's Cenotaph monument located in the Esplanade Park

Singaporeans, like people everywhere, are shaped by shared historical experiences. The colonial era, including participation in the last century's two world wars, is part of Singapore's recent history.  

As Singapore builds upon its history, citizens aspire for greater freedoms. However, the Cenotaph's vandalism may be interpreted as a sign that some Singaporeans are not ready for greater personal responsibility, a by-product of freedom.

Civil society is a prerequisite for democracy. According to the Merriam-Webster dictionary, 'Civil' means, "Adequate in courtesy and politeness; of, relating to, or based on civil law; established by law."

Democracy is more than 'one person, one vote.' Democracy is a culture - a way of thinking. Democracy grants freedoms but requires respect. Democracy is a way for society to establish laws; laws which are just and in line with the ambitions of society.

Respect for the law is paramount for any 'wannabe' democrat.

Undoubtedly, there are those who disagree with some prevalent laws. Consider the gay community with its repugnance for Section 377A of Singapore's penal code. To their credit, those opposed to Singapore's homosexuality laws are encouraging change in a mature manner – by challenging the statute through Singapore's Supreme Court.

Additionally, there is the example of Singaporean cartoonist Leslie Chew arrested for sedition. The cartoonist proclaims his views openly, not hiding behind a cloak of anonymity. He overtly confronts the system and appears prepared to face the legal consequences. In other words, if laws are perceived to be unjust then transparent, civil disobedience is the answer.

Violence – call it vandalism if you like – is not a catalyst for change. Vandalism in democracy's name is as abhorrent as violence in religion's name.

Misguided passion will not engender more political freedoms, leave alone democracy.

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Imran is a business and management consultant. Through his work at Deodar Advisors and the Deodar Diagnostic, Imran improves profits of businesses operating in Singapore and the region. He can be reached at imran@deodaradvisors.com. 

Leadership lessons from Pope Francis

Crisis management is not an easy task, particularly for a global organization with a mission statement which might read, 'Spread the gospel and the word of God.' Nonetheless, Pope Francis has done an admirable job in reviving the fortunes of the Catholic Church since taking office a few weeks ago. Indeed, his behaviour provides an interesting case study in leadership.

For starters, Pope Francis made his intentions for the papacy clear through his choice of name. Branding and names are inextricably linked. By (unexpectedly) associating himself with a Saint best known for helping the poor and a love for animals, Pope Francis underscored his priorities.

However, branding is more than a name. It is about actions creating a deserved image. At least so far, the Pope practices what he preaches.

The Pope reminds us the Catholic Church, like any religious structure, exists to better the spiritual and material welfare of humans. Undoubtedly, the Pope's behaviour must adapt to the integrity of the high office he now holds – he is no longer an Archbishop in a Latin American country.

Nonetheless, he has refused the elaborate trappings associated with the papacy, preferring the simplicity he was used to as the Archbishop of Buenos Aires. Famously remarking, "This is enough space for 300 people," Pope Francis declined to live in the Pope's ostentatious quarters, instead choosing communal apartments reserved for high Vatican officials in its place.

The Pope appears to stress a 'back to basics' policy. Let's focus the Church and its bureaucracy on alleviating the suffering of people.

The Pope has even broken some cardinal rules, apparently flouting Church canonical law in some instances. Such was the case during the ritual washing of feet during traditional Easter rites. In a 'double whammy' move, the Pope washed and kissed the feet of a Muslim Woman. Never before has any Pope washed the feet of females, leave alone a non-Catholic woman.

Again, the Pope stays true to his own conscience; sets a real example of 'doing good' overriding 'ritual.' Controversial? Maybe. Effective? Yes.

The human defines the office, any office. Individuals bring a personal leadership style to the office, be it the Papacy or CEO of a multinational corporate. First and foremost, these leaders must inspire others to assume ownership of the organization's collective goals. Lest there is any confusion, the Church's goals have been clearly articulated through the Pope's behaviour.

Pope Francis might be exactly what the doctor ordered to rejuvenate the Catholic Church.  Indeed, he has already succeeded in providing hope to millions of Christians the world over. From my point of view, Pope Francis might also usher in a new period of interfaith dialogue between Islam and Christianity, thereby shunning his immediate predecessor's tendency to provoke differences between the two Abrahamic faiths.

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Imran is a business and management consultant. Through his work at Deodar Advisors and the Deodar Diagnostic, Imran improves profits of businesses operating in Singapore and the region. He can be reached at imran@deodaradvisors.com. 

China plays the ‘Russia Card’

During the Cold War in the 1970s, United States President Nixon played the 'China Card' against Soviet Union. The 'China Card' was powerful enough to trump most anything played by America's Soviet opponents. The US won that hand. That was several decades ago.

In 2013, Red China is adeptly playing its own game of global diplomacy. China watchers have replaced yesterday's Cold War Kremlin watchers.

Modern China holds several strong cards. Global financial markets analyze each and every statistic – no matter how trivial – released by the People's Republic of China (PRC). Every move of influential members of the Communist Party of China is analyzed. Hence, when the new Chinese president makes Russia the destination of his first foreign trip, theories about the tour's significance abound. However, the reason for the visit is simple.

China is playing the 'Russia Card,' directed against the US. China is signalling to the US that the world is not completely unipolar; that public hacking allegations against the Chinese military may have consequences.

The US may be the only nation with the ability to intervene militarily in countries far from its own borders, like Iraq, but even the US has constraints. Those restraints come partially in the form of Russia and China.

To be sure, Russia and China are neighbours with shared interests. Close relations between the two erstwhile communist neighbours makes sense. Nonetheless, Russia and the US clearly feel the need to form a loose alliance against the current dominant world power. Neither country wishes to grant the US a license to ride roughshod over the world – something the US did spectacularly unsuccessfully in Iraq.

History is destined to repeat itself, often only with changed names and dates. Surely that is the case with the present Sino-Russian relationship? The American-Chinese relationship of the 1970–80s was something similar: a marriage of convenience built on a mutual mistrust of the Soviet Union. In the new millennium, a 'China-Russia' axis has been partly catalyzed by shared suspicions about US foreign policy actions.  

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Imran is a business and management consultant. Through his work at Deodar Advisors and the Deodar Diagnostic, Imran improves profits of businesses operating in Singapore and the region. He can be reached at imran@deodaradvisors.com. 

Lessons for Singapore from the island of Cyprus

Singapore's strict banking secrecy laws, sound fiscal management and reputation as a robust legal jurisdiction all combined to transform Singapore into an international private banking hub within the last few decades. Like Singapore, Cyprus too relied upon private banking to act as a vehicle for growth for its residents.  

Cyprus is located in Europe and, despite being a politically divided island, qualified for European Union (EU) membership in 2004. Like the country's 'Big Brother' Greece, Cyprus underwent an attitudinal change following EU membership.

Suddenly, a small island with a population of just over one million people had its future guaranteed by behemoth states like Germany, France and Britain. Cypriot banks became less risky. Russian wealth searching for a 'legitimate' home within the regulated borders of the EU looked no farther than Cyprus.

The Cypriot banking system became awash with cash. Partly as a result of these inflows into its banking system, the Cypriot economy racked up almost USD 107 billion of external debt; a princely amount for an economy with a total Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of USD 22.5 billion. By 2012, the services sector, primarily finance and tourism, accounted for almost 81 percent of the Cypriot economy. The finance sector could make or break the small island's economy.

Almost a decade after joining the EU, Cyprus is negotiating a tough economic bailout package with the International Monetary Fund and the EU. As part of the package, depositors in Cypriot banks are expected to pay a levy on bank deposits. In other words, savers will likely be penalized for squirreling money away for a rainy day. Why? Cynics argue the tax is necessary simply because, somewhere along the line, economic managers and bankers got too greedy and precipitated the recent Global Financial Crisis.

Surely, Cypriots should address their economic problems without interference from a Singaporean blogger. The 'if, when and how' of any bank deposit levy is a Cypriot debate.

Nonetheless, there are some lessons for Singapore from recent events in Cyprus, particularly given the importance of financial services and private banking to Singapore.

1.   Singapore must continue to manage its public finances prudently. Economic managers must resist the temptation to 'socialize' the economy and liberally hand out more 'free' services to the population at large. In reality, 'free' services are paid for by taxpayers. Only by avoiding financial crises can the Little Red Dot maintain the confidence of global investors, especially as the government administered Central Provident Fund begins to see net outflows of cash as Singapore's ageing population draws from the mandatory savings scheme.

2.   Financial services rely heavily on an aura of confidence around the Singapore brand. Major unexpected negative events could result in large and rapid outflows of moneys from Singapore's banking system – a catastrophic event for the country's economy. To avoid such an eventuality, policy makers must avoid drastic and unexpected shifts. Additionally, the central bank must continue to work with banks to make certain bank capitalizations are (and remain) more generous than international Basel requirements, even if that means lower bank profits. Singapore is not a member of the EU and the country's lender of last resort should remain the MAS and not an IMF bailout program.

3.   Economic policy makers ought to be conscious of Singapore's dependence on financial services. The ongoing efforts to diversify the economy across several value added service sectors of the economy will be helpful.

Singapore is no Cyprus in the making. Singapore's economy is not drowning in external debt. Typically, the government runs an annual budget surplus. However, like Cyprus, Singapore has a large (oversized?) banking sector reliant upon a high volume of offshore cash deposits. If not properly managed, Singapore's economy contains many of the ingredients required to cook up a domestic financial crisis at short notice.

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Imran is a business and management consultant. Through his work at Deodar Advisors and the Deodar Diagnostic, Imran improves profits of businesses operating in Singapore and the region. He can be reached at imran@deodaradvisors.com. 

Singapore turns to populist politics?

Are Singapore's ruling party members losing their cool? Some of them seem to be extremely worried about losing their seats at the next elections – that is if one goes by some of the 'populist' statements which have started surfacing recently in parliament.

Populist policy ideas do not fall in line with the normal characteristics of the People's Action Party (PAP) historical ruling style. Typically, PAP MPs lead from the front and in a paternalistic fashion, i.e. as a PAP MP I am better qualified to make decisions about Singapore's future so please just trust me; it's for your own good.

These unusual ideas – clearly designed to catch the eyes of voters and popular sentiment – include a National Defence Duty for foreigners as well as providing free public transport for commuters during off-peak hours. (Do these officials remember that Singapore's train and bus companies are publicly listed entities and the Board of Directors has fiduciary obligations towards shareholders?)

To be sure, it is good that elected representatives are suddenly more responsive to their constituencies. Nevertheless, Singaporeans must be concerned about the direction some of its elected leaders appear to be taking. In fact, if such thinking reflects broader views within the ruling party then alarm bells should start to ring.

Singapore did not go from Third World to First World by appeasing all constituencies every step of the way. The political leadership demonstrated a fair balance of vision and compromise. For example, when much of the developing world embraced 'socialism' and left wing thought, Singapore turned to the right and free market policies.

It took courage to go against the grain.

Surely, Singapore faces real issues about the country's future. The city state's economic model – which hitherto relied heavily on population growth through immigration – is under pressure. Its 'true blue' citizens are disturbed as their 'traditional' way of life is disrupted by an unprecedented influx of foreigners: approximately two million in the last two decades. The 'taken for granted' yearly improvement in living standards has sputtered during the last few years.

Expectations are not being met. The traditional social contract is under stress. Singapore's leadership must put its head down and address these issues. Populist, pseudo socialist policies will take Singapore nowhere fast.

Singaporeans like having their voice heard but they still wish to be led by thinkers. Not by people who are willing to sacrifice the country's long term stability for short term gains.

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Imran is a business and management consultant. Through his work at Deodar Advisors and the Deodar Diagnostic, Imran improves profits of businesses operating in Singapore and the region. He can be reached at imran@deodaradvisors.com.