New Ottomans, Persian Iran and diminishing American influence

In the sixteenth century the Mediterranean Sea was an Ottoman lake. From their capital Istanbul, the Ottomans held sway over lands including Egypt, Libya, Tunisia and Syria. Perhaps as a result of Ottoman suzerainty of Arab lands, Arabs have traditionally not held sympathetic views about Turks.

Like most modern Turks, the Ottomans identified themselves as a European power with a constant desire to modernize in the footsteps of industrializing Western Europe. However, controlling Islam's Holy cities of Mecca, Medina and other vast areas of the Arab world granted Ottoman's political legitimacy as Defenders of the Faith.

A map of the Ottoman Empire during various periods (source: Wikipedia)

The Ottoman Empire may no longer exist but Turkish influence in the region is seeing a renaissance of sorts. Turkey's renewed regional role is predicated on a confluence of events. It is a reminder of days former Ottoman governorates took orders from Istanbul's Topkapi Palace before making key policy decisions.

After decades of watching non-Muslim Eastern European nations waltz into Brussels, the Turks finally decided European Union (EU) need not be the raison d'etre of Turkish foreign policy. To Turks, the EU looks more and more like an exclusive Christian Club with which Muslims are only permitted 'association agreements.'

The Turkish political elite have finally tired of being humiliated by Brussels.

Consequently, as the snubs by Europe became more frequent, Turkey adopted a less 'western-centric' foreign policy. One facet of Turkey's new approach is greater economic and diplomatic ties with the Arab world.

The Arabs, fearing greater Irani encroachment into the Sunni Islamic world, grudgingly reciprocated Turkey's outreach. The fear of Iran feeds into Arab acceptance of Turkey in more ways. When the US invasion of Iraq unwittingly opened the door for aggressive Iranian influence, Sunni Arab nations calculate that Turkey can act as a possible counterweight to Iran.

Arab nations have other reasons to be fearful of a power vacuum in the region. US credibility has suffered with its inability to score an outright win in Iraq or Afghanistan even after ten years of fighting. Moreover, traditional Arab monarchies were aghast with the ease with which the Americans dropped long time ally and client, Egypt's Hosni Mubarak. The more vulnerable monarchies have decided that reliance on US support for survival is dangerous. America cannot be trusted.

Turkey's increasing economic power plays a vital part in Turkey's revival of fortunes. Based on 2010 data, the Turkish economy is the seventeenth largest in the world. That puts Turkey ahead of nations like Australia, Switzerland and long time rival Greece. 

The Ottoman Navy fleet during its eight month 'wintering' in the French port of Toulon in 1543

Turkish private sector corporations have demonstrated tremendous capacity to expand overseas in support of Turkish diplomacy. Large Turkish companies, having sewn up markets in recently independent Central Asian and Caucasus states, have moved aggressively into Arab countries to undertake a variety of projects.

Money has a way of increasing influence and Turkey has been pumping Liras into its neighbourhood.

Politics is not a zero sum game but Turkey's shift towards the Islamic world has not gone unnoticed with erstwhile ally, Israel. A Turkey more confident of its leadership role within the Islamic world has taken a harder line against Israel's Palestine policies.

Turkey's rise to prominence amongst the Arab nations has not occurred overnight. Al-Qaeeda's 9/11 attacks set off a series of global political realignments, many of which are still in motion. Introspection and a reassessment of political Islam are occurring across the Islamic world. Turkey is no exception. The NATO member's historical post World War II tilt towards the west is being recalibrated in line with new realities.

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Imran is a business and management consultant. Through his work at Deodar Advisors, Imran improves the profitability of small and medium sized businesses. He can be reached at imran@deodaradvisors.com.  

Is Singapore’s Administration of Muslim Law Act immune from debate?

Since my return to Singapore in 2009, the Straits Times has published many of my letters. Subjects have included Temasek Holding, Singapore Post, the Singapore Law Society and SMRT amongst others.

However, try as hard as I might, the Straits Times refuses to publish any of my opinions on Singapore's Administration of Muslim Law Act. I have sent many letters on the subject to the Straits Times.



Islamic law being implemented in the Indonesian province of Banda Aceh

My experience certainly gives me the impression that public discourse, constructive or not, remains controlled. An opinion given greater credence by  allegations contained in a document recently revealed by Wikileaks on Singapore's Straits Times newspaper.

It's fine to speak about common space and freedom of action –unless one is a Singaporean Muslim. In which case, she is denied many rights which are freely available to non-Muslim Singaporeans. Surely, discussion about Singapore's sharia and its implications for 'Common Space' cannot be beyond Singapore's self imposed 'out of bonds' markers?

Below is the text of a letter sent to the Straits Times on September 4, 2011. It represents my latest attempt at initiating a debate on Singapore's Administration of Muslim Law Act.

The Straits Times,

Singapore.

September 4, 2011

To the Editor:

It was heartening to read the Acting Minister for Community Development, Youth and Sports Chan Chun Sing's recent statements about efforts to increase Singapore's common space.

I hope these efforts will include a review of Singapore's Sharia legal system. The imposition of Sharia upon Singaporean Muslims creates a legal barrier between Muslims and Singapore's other races. Additionally, sharia law has the potential to create rifts between Malay and non-Malay Muslims.

Legislation applicable to citizens only on the basis of religion has little place in a modern republic such as Singapore. It is high time the government initiate efforts to make all Singaporeans, irrespective of race and religion, subject to a unified legal code.

Sincerely,

Imran Ahmed

For more articles on the subject please see:

http://imranwrites.blogspot.com/2009/09/singapores-secularism-regional-dangers.html

http://imranwrites.blogspot.com/2009/11/singapores-secularism-is-there-opt-in.html

http://imranwrites.blogspot.com/2009/11/locally-manufactured-versus-imported.html

http://imranwrites.blogspot.com/2009/12/whither-singapores-secularism-note-to.html

http://imranwrites.blogspot.com/2010/02/islam-converts-and-singapores-shariah.html

http://imranwrites.blogspot.com/2010/09/is-singapores-ministry-or-law-listening.html

http://imranwrites.blogspot.com/2011/02/social-integration-singapores-shariah.html

http://imranwrites.blogspot.com/2011/08/charity-muis-and-being-pakistani-malay.html

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Imran is a business and management consultant. Through his work at Deodar Advisors, Imran improves the profitability of small and medium sized businesses. He can be reached at imran@deodaradvisors.com.

Singapore’s ‘Arabian Spring’ and its new political landscape

A gust of the Arabian Spring breeze blew straight across West Asia and found itself on the shores of East Asia's Little Red Dot. Arab discontent had few release valves, ultimately forcing citizens onto the streets. Fortunately, Singaporeans have the chance to use a less disruptive method: elections.

Surprising many observers, Singapore's democracy demonstrated vibrancy not anticipated even a few years ago. Complacency and apathy have given way to mild forms of activism, first during the 2011 general elections and subsequently during the presidential polls.  

Although Singapore's ruling People's Action Party (PAP) won both contests, shifting voting patterns indicate that the traditional patriarchal relationship between the PAP and Singapore citizens is dying.



Both main candidates in the recent Presidential Elections were former PAP members.



Singaporeans appreciate the economic advances engineered by the PAP during its four decades rule but those advances are history – voters are looking to the future. Today's voter asks, 'What have you done for me lately?'

Singapore's changing political landscape lends itself to a few observations.

The 'Fear Factor' (or is it a 'Guilt Factor?') associated with voting for a non-PAP candidate has disappeared. Earlier, individuals, rightly or wrongly, believed that voting for non-PAP candidates might have real consequences.

The argument went that the PAP can identify persons who vote for the opposition voters and might 'punish' them for doing so. Perhaps tax documents would come under intense scrutiny, private companies would lose government business or expired professional licenses may be more difficult to renew. This perceived fear partly explains the large quantum of 'spoilt' votes at each general election – spoilt votes are effectively votes against the PAP.

Singapore's New Media is a powerful agent of change. Surely, the mainstream media is far from irrelevant. Nonetheless, the traditional media's credibility as an independent source of news has suffered with the proliferation of New Media. Recent revelations by Wikileaks will certainly not help the traditional print media's reputation.

Singaporeans' appetite for a truly independent media has risen exponentially in the last few years. A non-state controlled newspaper may yet be years away but it is a discussion very much in the making.

In the coming years, the grey areas where the Singapore state and the ruling PAP overlap will come under increased scrutiny. The recent controversy about the use of HDB public areas and the People's Association is likely the beginning of many more such debates. The complex, often incestuous, relationships between various organs of state and government will change as political consciousness increases with time.

It is likely that voters will continue to demand greater transparency surrounding financial entities such as Temasek and GIC. A system to distribute a portion of Temasek and GIC's long term investment gains, 'Temasek Bonus Shares,' may be the logical result of greater transparency.

Singaporeans must be encouraged by the beginnings of genuine national debate about the republic's future. Recent political changes may be subtle but they are significant. Singaporeans, the PAP and the opposition alike, have a responsibility to build upon the foundations of the last four decades. Incremental change which builds upon past successes will be more sustainable than radical, ad-hoc change.   

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Imran is a business and management consultant. Through his work at Deodar Advisors, Imran improves the profitability of small and medium sized businesses. He can be reached at imran@deodaradvisors.com.  

Eid Mubarik

 The Grand Moofti wishes Eid mubarik to all readers!

Libya and Egypt: regime versus leadership change

Almost without exception, Arab summers are hot: temperatures above forty degrees normal. However, summer 2011 may go down as one of the region's hottest seasons irrespective of mercury readings. Several Arab countries still feel the heat of popular revolt.

Libya's Tripoli is all but conquered. Gaddafi and his sons remain at large but his leadership's achievements are material for history books. Syria's Baath party might soon go the way of Saddam's Iraqi Baathist regime. Much depends on how Western powers view the benefits of a stable Syria under Assad versus the dangers of an unstable 'democracy' such as 'new' Iraq or 'new' Egypt.

Oil rich Gulf Arab states, especially Bahrain, may have seen off the worst of the unrest a few months ago. Nevertheless, despite the Gulf Cooperation Council nation's massive oil wealth, a perpetual nervousness haunts the conservative monarchies. Amongst other things, the spectre of Shia unrest stirred by nearby Iran gives Sunni rulers sleepless nights.

Morocco and Jordan may seem like peripheral nations within the Arab world so the media pays scant attention to them. In both countries, trouble is never more than one royal political misstep away. Remember, Tunisia too was a small and unimportant Arab nation until a street vendor decided enough was enough and committed suicide through self-immolation.

Clearly, the Arab world is in a transitory period.

It might be social media, a globalized world, a population bulge or simply a passing of the leadership baton to a younger generation. Most likely, the travails are a combination of all four and then some more.

So far, change within the Arab world has been of two types: cosmetic changes of 'personalities' and more revolutionary 'regime change.'

To varying degrees, Egypt and Tunisia continue to operate within the power structures created by the Mubarak and Ben Ali regimes. The configuration of power has not altered substantially. Only the personalities dispensing the power have changed. The operating freedoms of the new rulers are circumscribed by the frameworks of the 'old' systems – frameworks enforced by the military establishments in both nations.

Tunisia's Office of Merchant Marine and Ports with a portrait of ex-President Ben Ali

Iraq and Libya fall into the former category. Both nations have undergone revolutionary changes to their political systems. Institutions (and much physical infrastructure) created by previous rulers, Saddam Hussain and Muammar Gaddafi, was demolished and replaced by new political infrastructures.

Progress cannot occur without change. Hence, changes in the Arab world must be welcomed. Nonetheless, revolutions are disruptive and outcomes uncertain so are better avoided, if possible. Yet, history teaches that few regimes voluntarily relinquish power. At least for now, the bubbling uncertainty in most parts of the Arab world will continue.

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Imran is a business and management consultant. Through his work at Deodar Advisors, Imran improves the profitability of small and medium sized businesses. He can be reached at imran@deodaradvisors.com.

Charity, MUIS and being a Pakistani-Malay-Indian Singaporean

It is not often I am contacted by the Islamic Religious Council of Singapore (MUIS). When MUIS does contact me it is almost certainly about donations.

Admittedly, I am not MUIS' best patron. I already contest MUIS' stake on my assets through Singapore's Administration of Muslim Law Act (AMLA) as an unfair claim. I do not like the idea of MUIS forcibly determining the disposition of my assets following my death.

It is the holy month of fasting, or Ramzan, for Muslims. Zakat is often paid by Muslims during the holy month. Hence, it is no surprise that MUIS chose this month to inform me of my obligations towards the less privileged.

A wooden Tatar mosque in Kruszyniany, Northeast Poland

I was urged to pay zakat to MUIS so the funds may be used for the welfare of Singapore's Malay-Muslim community.

Zakat is one of Islam's five pillars or one of Islam's five 'non-negotiable absolutes.' Zakat requires all Muslims to annually donate 2.5 percent of net worth to charity. Surely, that is a simplification of the concept of zakat but the purpose is clear: a community's less well off must be supported by the larger community.

Charity is good and must be encouraged. Giving has its own rewards. Altruism's 'feel good' factor cannot easily be replicated by other activities. Nevertheless, there are a few principles about charity which guide my modest giving. These principles might be better referred to as 'priorities.'

Our first obligation is to help those near to us. Think of the Confucian ideal of 'filial piety.' Giving to support parents and family must precede donations for earthquake relief, cancer research, advancement of particular religious beliefs, etc. Of course, this ideal refers not simply to blood relatives but all persons who are a significant part of our life. 

Bronze statue of man carrying his aged mother up some steps at a shrine (Tokyo, Japan)

Next is an obligation to the immediate community. 'Buying' tissues or food from an elderly or disabled person who maintains a 'stall' near my building is more meaningful than writing a check to an established institutional charity.

It is only after community and family responsibilities are met that one may start apportioning money to other causes, e.g. animal welfare, disaster relief, etc.

But let's head back to MUIS and its solicitation of zakat funds. There are some MUIS specific ideas which are pertinent to me.

I am not Malay by ethnicity. Nor do I speak Malay. In fact, under Singapore law persons of Pakistani origin are legally classified 'Indian,' requiring monthly mandatory payments to the Singapore Indian Development Association (SINDA). I may voluntarily give zakat to MUIS but SINDA benefits from my legal classification.

My Housing and Development Board ethnic quota is 'Others' (not Malay) but I am subject to Singapore's Islamic law (AMLA) – legislation designed to fit into Malay religious and cultural traditions.

Being a cynic, I am convinced that were I ever to approach MUIS for assistance, I would politely be sent packing towards SINDA.

I am not a Tamil Indian. Nor do I speak Tamil. Consequently, I will most likely face similar problems convincing SINDA to assist me, especially once SINDA realizes I am Muslim (not difficult given my name).

I imagine there will be a few bouts of 'shuttle diplomacy' between SINDA and MUIS until a senior bureaucrat in some government ministry decides that being categorized Indian or Malay is not as important as being Singaporean, regardless of ethnicity.

Giving is one the easiest and most noble of acts. It is important to give. However, giving without thinking considerably reduces the impact of our efforts.

Nevertheless, giving trumps not giving on any day of the year.

__________________

Imran is a business and management consultant. Through his work at Deodar Advisors, Imran improves the profitability of small and medium sized businesses. He can be reached at imran@deodaradvisors.com.

London’s burning: England’s riots ‘a conspiracy hatched in Pakistan’s tribal areas’

Most thought the recent riots in England were simple riots involving hooligans. However, in a bizarre twist to a constantly unfolding plot an 'Al-Qaeeda' connection has been uncovered. British intelligence, in a dossier delivered to the cabinet's COBRA security committee, devoted much time to the theory that the rioting was not spontaneous but rather a part of a sophisticated Islamist conspiracy hatched overseas.

One British intelligence official had this to say of the situation: "This is a game changer. Islamic militants have upped their game several notches and are deliberately employing non-Muslims to indulge in anti-social behaviour."  The official went on to add, "Although the new strategy reflects our success in battling traditional forms of Islamic terrorism, Al-Qaeeda and its affiliates have reinvented themselves by utilizing such unconventional means." 

The report suggests that Mark Duggan's death was part of a complicated Al-Qaeeda plot intended to destabilize Britain. Mark Duggan's death, allegedly at the hands of London police, sparked the rioting which engulfed several British cities last week.

Intelligence sources indicate the report was compiled with assistance from CIA agents responsible for tracking Al-Qaeeda's deep undercover 'sleeper' cells in Europe. Investigators are also working to uncover links between 'English gang leaders' and Egyptian Islamist leaders actively involved in overthrowing Mubarak's regime.

An MI5 representative, the British government agency responsible for counterintelligence, informed prime minister Cameron that the diversity of rioters was a deliberate plan by militants to 'throw the scent' away from Islamists themselves. Non-Muslims were the main instigators of violence for the same purpose of gaining 'plausible deniability' for Islamic radicals.

Apparently, the mass of English rioters were 'incubated' over years, sometimes decades, by Islamist radicals operating through a chain of safe houses. European security analysts believe Islamist safe houses, including fully fledged madrassas, exist throughout the British Isles and mainland Europe. Such Islamist safe houses are concentrated mainly in urban areas with large Muslim populations, including in France and Germany.  

Training methods employed by the Islamist cells are often so advanced it is difficult for agents to ascertain whether they are extreme right wing nationalist cells or Islamist cells bent on imposing sharia in Britain. Though the cells are staffed mostly by non-Muslim males, sources suggest cell handlers receive orders from leaders based in Pakistan's tribal areas. 

Unnamed sources informed the Grand Moofti that the immediate use of military force against Islamist safe houses, especially in parts of East London, Bradford and Birmingham was discussed by the cabinet's COBRA committee. However, upon advice from the military's top brass, it was decided to postpone any military action until Special Forces troops with relevant experience in Afghanistan return to Britain later in the year.

Instead, an alternate proposal to redeploy units of the Royal Ulster Constabulary (RUC) from Northern Ireland to England is being actively considered. The RUC's extensive experience in dealing with urban violence sponsored by religiously inspired terrorist cells makes them ideal for the current situation in England.

Muslim activists are alarmed at the allegations linking Islam to the violence. In a public statement, the Muslim Council of Britain stated that "all lawbreakers and miscreants, irrespective of religious affiliation, must feel the full force of the law. This is not a time to further divide the nation. We are all Britons first."

Social activists dismiss the government's claims of an Al-Qaeeda hand in the recent unrest. These activists place the blame squarely upon the creation of an 'underclass' following decades of unbridled 'Thatcherism' within the country. Social activists demand the establishment of a judicial commission to study the 'real' causes of violence. Additionally, they believe the commission should have adequate power to reverse 'harmful and unjust' social policies implemented by successive governments'.

Undeniably, Britain is at a crossroads. The nation's future as an adjunct leader of the Free World is at stake. Britain's leadership sounded a defiant note.

"The future of western civilization is at stake. This is not a battle we can walk away from. Our successes in Iraq and Afghanistan tell us we will succeed right here at home. My government must and will bring to light any and all Al-Qaeeda efforts to disrupt British society. Clearly, Al-Qaeeda has adapted to the new security environment and so must British society," said the Prime Minister in a prepared statement to parliament.

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N.B. The above article is a work of fiction. Names, characters, places and incidents are either the product of the author's imagination or are used fictitiously. Any resemblance to actual persons, living or dead, is entirely coincidental.