Ukraine: a fight to the death!

As we head closer to the six month mark of the Ukraine war, the military confrontation is locked in a virtual stalemate. Despite Russia controlling about twenty percent of pre-war Ukraine there is little likelihood of a military victory by either side anytime soon.

NATO / US will fight until the last Ukrainian and the Russians are in no mood to talk either. The implications of this stubborn desire to fight are severe.

 Source: Pexels

1. Ukraine will suffer more widespread and intense destruction while Ukrainians will continue to be displaced as internal and external refugees (at least the Ukrainians can move freely to other countries!).

2. In a stalemate, NATO is tempted to escalate the war to achieve its aim of weakening Russia, i.e. more advanced weaponry in larger quantities will be sent to Ukraine. In turn, this will increase the likelihood of Russians attacking NATO supply lines within Ukraine but possibly also in Poland. Whether NATO starts protecting these vital supply routes inside Ukraine with 'disguised' NATO personnel (say as foreign mercenaries from the Ukrainian Foreign Legion) or contractors is an open question? Another potential flashpoint.

3. For its part, if Russia believes the war is shifting decisively away it will fall back to a long standing Cold War strategic doctrine, i.e. threaten to go nuclear. Subsequently, NATO will have to play 'nuclear' chicken over Ukraine and call Russia's bluff or threaten escalation itself.

4. Militarily the war can only get more dangerous. Both sides will feel the need to escalate if the balance tips to the other party. NATO and Russia have backed themselves into political corners domestically with little flexibility for a face saving climb down.

5. Oil, gas and food inflation will not subside while Western sanctions remain in force. Poorer nations will suffer disproportionately. Sri Lanka and Ecuador are examples of possible outcomes in many other states. Europe will also suffer due to disruptions in its energy supplies. Hence, European domestic discontent over the war will increase the longer the war lasts.

6. Post war (we'll have to think about a post-war world sometime!), the world will be left with roaming hordes of trained and weaponized far right extremists. These extremists, currently extolled as war heroes fighting for freedom and democracy, will pose an immediate threat to Europe's internal security as they transition from loose, individually driven anti-state movements to battle hardened entities with a chain of command (remember the origins of the Taliban?).

Source: Pexels

To be sure, in the current situation an early end to the war is unlikely. Thus, one wonders who benefits more from a protracted conflict, Russia or NATO?

In Russia war fatigue, especially as sanctions start to bite, will grow with time. Russia will also face problems recruiting soldiers as it runs out of able bodied people due to mounting casualties as well as war fatigue.

Similarly, Ukrainians too will run out of people. Perhaps that may precipitate soldiers from friendly countries like Poland, etc. be given 'leave of absence' to join the Ukrainian Foriegn Legion (of their own volition of course!) to supplement diminishing personnel in the Ukrainian army.

Moreover, as the cost of the war starts to hit US / European budgets, support for Ukraine will cool and feed an anti-war movement, especially as inflation hits people's wallets. This will ultimately force political leaders to shift focus from a military to a diplomatic solution. However, that may be many months away.

The Ukraine war has made the world a messy and dangerous place. Many countries will pay the price for what is essentially another European war (great power politics of the nineteenth century come to mind). One can only hope sanity prevails and efforts shift towards a political solution sooner rather than later. Only after peace is restored can the world can begin the difficult process of rebuilding.

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Imran is an adventurer, blogger, consultant, guide, photographer, speaker, traveler and a banker in his previous life. Imran lives in Singapore. He is available on Instagram (@imranahmedsg) and can be contacted at imran.ahmed.sg@gmail.com.

Corona Covid-19 pandemic: death knell for the post-war world order?

Once upon a time the world – or at least the Free World - was led by Reagan, Thatcher and Mitterand. Leaders with presence, standing and most important of all, respect. They were even respected by opponents.

British Prime Minister Thatcher, US President Reagan, French President Mitterrand and
West German Chancellor Schmidt at an international summit meeting (L to R)

During those times the US and its likeminded 'friends,' e.g. Britain and France, ran the world using a combination of bribery and force. They lorded over other lesser nations through a series of interlocking multilateral security arrangements and an economic institutional framework comprising of entities like the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank.  

In a nutshell, that was the post World War Two world order.

But those were different times. The developed world had money and delivered on promises. Other countries believed them.

The US, as the undisputed leader of the 'Free World,' provided a security blanket for its satellite states. In return for ceding a part of their national sovereignty to the US, the US provided clear leadership, especially in times of crisis.  

That was the 1980s. Much has changed in the ensuing four decades.

The Berlin Wall - the symbolic Iron Curtain dividing the world's two Superpowers (the US and the Soviet Union) - came down in 1991. That same year the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) morphed – nay collapsed – and became the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). (The CIS structure was a graceful way for the USSR to exit the Russian Empire's historic obligations and focus on saving Russia itself.)

Socialism all but died with the Soviet Union. Today all countries engage in private enterprise and global trade. Meanwhile Socialism has been discredited though significant parts of socialist philosophy have made their way into mainstream thought, e.g. public healthcare and social safety nets.

China's Belt and Road Initiative reflects China's aspirations as a global trading power

As for the global economy, the US is no longer the undisputed master. To be sure, the US Dollar remains king but its throne is a little shaky.

In the past it was said, "If the US sneezes then the world catches a cold." Today, if the US sneezes, the rest of the world simply says, "Bless You" and moves on. The risk of catching a cold is remote – at least not an intense life threatening cold resulting in mass unemployment.

In 2020 the communist party managed People's Republic of China (PRC) has the world's largest economy. Based on data released by the IMF, World Bank and the CIA, China's economy is significantly larger than its closest rival. Indeed, China's gross domestic product (GDP) surpasses the GDP of the combined European Union (EU) nations.

The deterioration in the US position has not been only in the economic domain.

Extraordinary leaders create and husband prestige. Prestige is an invisible halo which adds to the 'je ne sais quoi' aura of rulers. It is built up over decades but can be lost quickly. 

American prestige reached its peak during the first Iraq war with Operation Desert Storm in 1991 and Powell's 'Shock and Awe' tactics of overwhelming force. Since 1991 a series of events have diminished US global standing.

Militarily, the downtrend started with the 1993 failed US intervention in Somalia, Operation Restore Hope and the casualties suffered in the Battle of Mogadishu. Then came the 9/11 attack, which taking place on US domestic soil was a watershed moment. The subsequent War on Terror, especially the Iraq war and the present scramble to exit Afghanistan, did little to help stem the dissipation of US prestige.

Simultaneously a succession of other minor events, though not as individually significant as the 9/11 attack, cumulatively resulted in tarnishing America's sheen. These include the US federal government shutdown in 2018 – 2019 (35 days) and 1995 – 1996 (26 days) and the 2008 Global Financial Crisis.

Despite the signs of decay, many still placed the mantle of leadership squarely on the US and its small coterie of European friends. However, with recent events surrounding the Covid-19 pandemic it has become increasingly clear the US and its 'friends' no longer rule the roost.

In its management of the Covid-19 pandemic, the world has seen the US's dysfunctional soul. While state governors are at loggerheads with the federal government over steps to contain the crisis the US Covid-19 death toll and infection numbers rise uncontrollably. As of April 2, 2020 US deaths attributed to Covid-19 have surpassed China, the original epicentre of the virus.

Through an unending sea of social media content, the world has witnessed the complete disarray in the US (and most of Western Europe) caused by the pandemic. Most revealing are not the lack of resources available to these governments' in tackling the virus but more so the lack of national leadership and policy implementation through state bureaucracies.

The world is used to headlines decrying poor governance, weak infrastructure; limited resources, etc. Such news headlines are common across large swathes of the world. However, they are more normally reserved for parts of Africa or developing Asia than for the US or Europe.

The Covid-19 pandemic has hastened post war global structural changes. The US and Europe, though still powerful, are less relevant international players. 

Following a steady erosion of economic and military power the irreparable loss of reputational prestige due to the management of the Covid-19 pandemic, neither the US nor Europe are able to provide global leadership. For example, there will be no Group of Seven summit resulting in a Baker Plan or issuance of Brady Bonds to save the world's economy from the ravages of the Covid-19 catastrophe. It's every nation for herself.

Until further notice, the world suffers a leadership vacuum.

China may vie to fill the position but it's not ready yet - perhaps in a few decades. More likely, second tier regional powers like India, Russia and Turkey will temporarily fill the void in their respective neighborhoods until a more stable arrangement is reached. 

No matter what the coming new world order looks like, one fact is clear: Trump, Boris and Macron cannot fill the shoes of Reagan, Thatcher or Mitterrand.

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Imran is a Singapore based Tour Guide with a special interest in arts and history. Imran has lived and worked in several countries during his past career as an international banker. He enjoys traveling, especially by train, as a way to feed his curiosity about the world and nurture his interest in photography. He is available on Instagram (@imranahmedsg); twitter (@grandmoofti) and can be contacted at imran.ahmed.sg@gmail.com.

Occupied: Norwegian television series a review

Occupied is a Norwegian television series which tells the story of a series of political events leading to the Russian military occupation of Norway.

A Russian military occupation of Norway may sound unrealistic but the series plays out in such a manner that it's almost believable. After a few episodes it doesn't really matter as the plot fully draws in the viewer. The intricate plot blends love, political intrigue, action and European politics in a believable fashion.

The military intervention was all about Norway's enormous oil and gas reserves.

Yes, the geopolitics of oil and gas are intense. After all, wasn't the US intervention in Iraq all about oil? So why should one be so surprised something similar could happen in the heart of Europe with Russia as the antagonist?

Occupied is watchable despite the acting. At times, the acting leaves a lot to be desired. It is wooden with characters seeming to simply 'go through the motions.' The depth in characters is therefore missing.

Nonetheless, Occupied is a must watch for anyone interested in political thrillers. It builds a credible story based on plausible situations. The gaps in the plot are forgivable given the entertainment value of the series.

Note: At the the time of writing, two season of Occupied are available on Netflix in many jurisdiction.

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Imran is an adventurer, blogger, consultant, guide, photographer, speaker, traveler and a banker in his previous life. He is available on twitter (@grandmoofti); Instagram (@imranahmedsg) and can be contacted at imran.ahmed.sg@gmail.com.

Europe can accept large numbers of immigrants – a lesson learnt in yesterday's Malaya!

Recently, television screens are filled with pictures of a stream of mostly Arab refugees wandering into Europe. Many Europeans are disturbed at the images of sheer desperation but are also worried about the future impact of accepting these refugees.

One may argue these refugees are simply 'collateral damage' from the various invasions and wars (Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and Syria) waged by Western powers in the name of freedom and democracy. One may also pontificate about the moral obligation Europe, particularly NATO member states, have towards refugees from war torn regions of the Middle East.

Note the countries accepting the largest refugee populations in the world, based on UN data, are not wealthy, e.g. Lebanon, Pakistan, Turkey.

Let us not do either and, instead, take a look at a few numbers.

According to the CIA, Iraq has an estimated population of 37 million people and Syria 17 million. Simple mathematics suggests that if Europe hypothetically accepts and relocates the entire living populations of both Syria and Iraq, i.e. 54 million souls, they will Europeans will still account for just about ten percent of Europe's current population of over 500 million people. In other words, 'existing' European residents will comprise 90 percent of the population even after such a large (and unrealistic) dislocation of populations.

Undoubtedly, there are issues of geographic concentrations, etc. but then these refugees are 'Yuppie Migrants.' They are better educated than the average economic migrant of the last few centuries.

Refugees march through Hungary in August 2015

Now take a look at some historic numbers from Southeast Asia.

Singapore and the broader Malaya region (today's Malaysia) was virtually exclusively inhabited by various Malay speaking peoples from the region in 1819. Then in 1819 the British East India Company established its presence and colonized the island for king and country. Subsequently, British colonial authorities opened up the floodgates to new arrivals (this is not the place to analyze the reasons for such a policy).

Immigration from China and India was so intense that Malays are a minority in Singapore. Malays now account for less than fifteen percent of Singapore's population. In Malaysia, non-Malays constitute approximately forty percent of the country's population. The demographics of Singapore and Malaya have changed indescribably since the advent of colonialism.

Here is an account of events from Singapore published in 1846. It reads much like events pertaining to the European Refugee Crisis of today.

Incessant Chinese migrant arrivals stretch colony's infrastructure

Singapore's authorities are overwhelmed by the daily arrival of thousands of economic migrants from China and India. The wave of immigrants, primarily from China's southern Fujian province, arrive at a make-shift jetty on Telok Ayer Street. Thence, the fortunate souls who survive the perilous weeks long sea journey immediately proceed to the nearby Thian Hock Keng Temple to give thanks to the Goddess of the Seas – Ma Zhu. Most Chinese immigrants believe their safe arrival is due in large part to Ma Zhu's helping hand.

While speaking to this correspondent about the difficulties of accommodating such a large number of immigrants, social worker John Doe said, "To add to our problems, a steady stream of migrants from the Tamil speaking Coromandel coast of India are also arriving in large numbers. Both groups are fleeing instability and poverty in their homelands and believe Singapore to be the new Promised Land."

Authorities are concerned at the impact the newcomers will have on the ethnic mix of the predominantly Malay-Muslim population of Singapore. Already, some Malays have expressed discomfort at the changing racial and ethnic mix on the island. The disgruntlement about the changing character of the island is compounded by the religious and cultural traditions of most new migrants. These Malays suggest the large influx of idol worshipping foreigners will create tensions among an otherwise harmonious complex of diverse Malay communities.

Authorities have established cells to register the migrants, though most simply make their way to the nearest Chinese clan association for assistance. The lucky ones knock on the doors of a distant relative or friend who is already residing in Singapore.

Medical practitioners are alarmed at the crowded conditions in streets surrounding South Bridge Road and are urging authorities to designate special buildings as refugee camps for the wary, hungry and often sick refugees.

Excerpt from "Incessant Chinese migrant arrivals stretch colony's infrastructure." The Straights Times, August 14, 1846.*

First port of call for many Chinese refugees arriving in Singapore was the Thian Hock Keng Temple, now a popular tourist attraction

Singapore not only survived the onslaught of migrants from foreign lands but perhaps the island thrived as a result of the new migrants!

Europe, too, has an opportunity to reinvent itself and emerge a stronger and more dynamic continent. European nations may either do this willingly by helping integrate the current wave of refugees or, alternately, these nations may swim against the tide of history by erecting physical and psychological barriers against the new entrants.

Let us see whether European values extend beyond the continent's own borders.

* Please note this article is a fictional account of events written by the blogger in 2015. It is not a genuine excerpt from any newspaper of other publication.

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Imran is a business and management consultant. Through his work at Deodar Advisors and the Deodar Diagnostic, Imran improves profits of businesses operating in Singapore and the region. He can be reached at imran@deodaradvisors.com.

Ataturk's withering Istanbul?

Istanbul is one of my favorite cities. I first visited Istanbul in February 2003, on the eve of the US invasion of Iraq. From 2003 onwards, I have visited Istanbul regularly.

In Istanbul, one cannot take more than a few steps without running into a historical monument or place of worship. Istanbul, after all, was the home of the Ottoman Empire – the Sublime Porte. An Empire which attempted to synthesize modernity and Islam, ultimately leading to the personality of Ataturk and ideas associated with Kemalism.

A painting of Ottoman era Istanbul. The Blue Mosque and the Hagia Sophia are visible in the background. 

For me, Turkey is Ataturk's Turkey. A nation pursuing a staunch, fascist-like, secular vision believing secularist thought is a prerequisite for modernizing society. Headscarves were not permitted in government institutions. Islamist tending politicians were persona non grata in Ankara, the nation's capital. Any deviation from Ataturk's path and the military flexes its muscles to remind society of the correct way. Remember Turkey's 'post-modern' coup and the fate of Erbekan's Islamist government in 1997?

Since 2003, Istanbul's character has changed. Along with the rest of the world, Turkey has seen a resurgence of religiosity in the post 9/11 environment. Ataturk's secular ideals have withered with time. Secularism is all but dead.

A process helped on its way by three successive governments formed by the Islamically inclined Justice and Development Party (AKP). Since the AKP's first election victory in 2002, the party swept the polls again in 2007 and most recently in 2011.

Tayyip Erdogan, in his capacity as Prime Minister from 2003-2014 and from 2014 as President, has presided over many far reaching changes in Turkish society. The headscarf debate is history. His wife – as Turkey's First Lady - adorns the headscarf at state functions. The AKP's symbolic victory in the headscarf debate underscores the increasing influence of religion in Ataturk's secular Turkey.

To the AKP's credit, Turkey has seen its status and image in the world transformed. With the largest standing army within the NATO alliance, Turkey was always an important state militarily. However, Turkey is now an economic powerhouse too. At the end of 2012, Istanbul had twenty-four billionaire residents, ranking it at number seven in the list of cities with the most billionaires. According to compiled by the CIA, Turkey's economy is the seventeenth largest in the world. It's GDP per capita on a purchasing parity basis is over USD 15,000. Turkish companies are global players with large overseas investments, particularly in neighboring Central Asian and Balkan states.

Politically, Turkey now pursues a more muscular and independent foreign policy – often bringing the country into conflict with its traditional US and NATO allies. Consider Turkey's vacillations over supporting Kurdish militias in battling extremist Islamic State fighters lodged in the Syrian city of Kobani. Or Turkey's increasingly active role in regional conflict zones such as Libya and Palestine.

Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, the founder of the modern Turkish Republic, seen in his military uniform (1918)

Perhaps all of these changes simply represent a maturing of Turkish society? Or maybe the shift towards Islam is a belated recognition of the European Union's non-acceptance of Turkey as an European state? (Turkey has virtually abandoned the formal process of becoming an EU member state.) More likely, it is a combination of several factors. Whatever the reasons, the changes are unlikely to stop me from visiting Istanbul again in the coming years – as often as I possibly can. It remains a charmingly, beautiful city with many hidden secrets I have yet to uncover!

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Imran is a Singapore based Tour Guide with a special interest in arts and history. Imran has lived and worked in several countries during his past career as an international banker. He enjoys traveling, specially by train, as a way to feed his curiosity about the world and nurture his interest in photography. Imran can be contacted at imran.ahmed.sg@gmail.com.

Lessons for Singapore from the island of Cyprus

Singapore's strict banking secrecy laws, sound fiscal management and reputation as a robust legal jurisdiction all combined to transform Singapore into an international private banking hub within the last few decades. Like Singapore, Cyprus too relied upon private banking to act as a vehicle for growth for its residents.  

Cyprus is located in Europe and, despite being a politically divided island, qualified for European Union (EU) membership in 2004. Like the country's 'Big Brother' Greece, Cyprus underwent an attitudinal change following EU membership.

Suddenly, a small island with a population of just over one million people had its future guaranteed by behemoth states like Germany, France and Britain. Cypriot banks became less risky. Russian wealth searching for a 'legitimate' home within the regulated borders of the EU looked no farther than Cyprus.

The Cypriot banking system became awash with cash. Partly as a result of these inflows into its banking system, the Cypriot economy racked up almost USD 107 billion of external debt; a princely amount for an economy with a total Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of USD 22.5 billion. By 2012, the services sector, primarily finance and tourism, accounted for almost 81 percent of the Cypriot economy. The finance sector could make or break the small island's economy.

Almost a decade after joining the EU, Cyprus is negotiating a tough economic bailout package with the International Monetary Fund and the EU. As part of the package, depositors in Cypriot banks are expected to pay a levy on bank deposits. In other words, savers will likely be penalized for squirreling money away for a rainy day. Why? Cynics argue the tax is necessary simply because, somewhere along the line, economic managers and bankers got too greedy and precipitated the recent Global Financial Crisis.

Surely, Cypriots should address their economic problems without interference from a Singaporean blogger. The 'if, when and how' of any bank deposit levy is a Cypriot debate.

Nonetheless, there are some lessons for Singapore from recent events in Cyprus, particularly given the importance of financial services and private banking to Singapore.

1.   Singapore must continue to manage its public finances prudently. Economic managers must resist the temptation to 'socialize' the economy and liberally hand out more 'free' services to the population at large. In reality, 'free' services are paid for by taxpayers. Only by avoiding financial crises can the Little Red Dot maintain the confidence of global investors, especially as the government administered Central Provident Fund begins to see net outflows of cash as Singapore's ageing population draws from the mandatory savings scheme.

2.   Financial services rely heavily on an aura of confidence around the Singapore brand. Major unexpected negative events could result in large and rapid outflows of moneys from Singapore's banking system – a catastrophic event for the country's economy. To avoid such an eventuality, policy makers must avoid drastic and unexpected shifts. Additionally, the central bank must continue to work with banks to make certain bank capitalizations are (and remain) more generous than international Basel requirements, even if that means lower bank profits. Singapore is not a member of the EU and the country's lender of last resort should remain the MAS and not an IMF bailout program.

3.   Economic policy makers ought to be conscious of Singapore's dependence on financial services. The ongoing efforts to diversify the economy across several value added service sectors of the economy will be helpful.

Singapore is no Cyprus in the making. Singapore's economy is not drowning in external debt. Typically, the government runs an annual budget surplus. However, like Cyprus, Singapore has a large (oversized?) banking sector reliant upon a high volume of offshore cash deposits. If not properly managed, Singapore's economy contains many of the ingredients required to cook up a domestic financial crisis at short notice.

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Imran is a business and management consultant. Through his work at Deodar Advisors and the Deodar Diagnostic, Imran improves profits of businesses operating in Singapore and the region. He can be reached at imran@deodaradvisors.com.