Corona Covid-19 pandemic: death knell for the post-war world order?

Once upon a time the world – or at least the Free World - was led by Reagan, Thatcher and Mitterand. Leaders with presence, standing and most important of all, respect. They were even respected by opponents.

British Prime Minister Thatcher, US President Reagan, French President Mitterrand and
West German Chancellor Schmidt at an international summit meeting (L to R)

During those times the US and its likeminded 'friends,' e.g. Britain and France, ran the world using a combination of bribery and force. They lorded over other lesser nations through a series of interlocking multilateral security arrangements and an economic institutional framework comprising of entities like the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank.  

In a nutshell, that was the post World War Two world order.

But those were different times. The developed world had money and delivered on promises. Other countries believed them.

The US, as the undisputed leader of the 'Free World,' provided a security blanket for its satellite states. In return for ceding a part of their national sovereignty to the US, the US provided clear leadership, especially in times of crisis.  

That was the 1980s. Much has changed in the ensuing four decades.

The Berlin Wall - the symbolic Iron Curtain dividing the world's two Superpowers (the US and the Soviet Union) - came down in 1991. That same year the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) morphed – nay collapsed – and became the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). (The CIS structure was a graceful way for the USSR to exit the Russian Empire's historic obligations and focus on saving Russia itself.)

Socialism all but died with the Soviet Union. Today all countries engage in private enterprise and global trade. Meanwhile Socialism has been discredited though significant parts of socialist philosophy have made their way into mainstream thought, e.g. public healthcare and social safety nets.

China's Belt and Road Initiative reflects China's aspirations as a global trading power

As for the global economy, the US is no longer the undisputed master. To be sure, the US Dollar remains king but its throne is a little shaky.

In the past it was said, "If the US sneezes then the world catches a cold." Today, if the US sneezes, the rest of the world simply says, "Bless You" and moves on. The risk of catching a cold is remote – at least not an intense life threatening cold resulting in mass unemployment.

In 2020 the communist party managed People's Republic of China (PRC) has the world's largest economy. Based on data released by the IMF, World Bank and the CIA, China's economy is significantly larger than its closest rival. Indeed, China's gross domestic product (GDP) surpasses the GDP of the combined European Union (EU) nations.

The deterioration in the US position has not been only in the economic domain.

Extraordinary leaders create and husband prestige. Prestige is an invisible halo which adds to the 'je ne sais quoi' aura of rulers. It is built up over decades but can be lost quickly. 

American prestige reached its peak during the first Iraq war with Operation Desert Storm in 1991 and Powell's 'Shock and Awe' tactics of overwhelming force. Since 1991 a series of events have diminished US global standing.

Militarily, the downtrend started with the 1993 failed US intervention in Somalia, Operation Restore Hope and the casualties suffered in the Battle of Mogadishu. Then came the 9/11 attack, which taking place on US domestic soil was a watershed moment. The subsequent War on Terror, especially the Iraq war and the present scramble to exit Afghanistan, did little to help stem the dissipation of US prestige.

Simultaneously a succession of other minor events, though not as individually significant as the 9/11 attack, cumulatively resulted in tarnishing America's sheen. These include the US federal government shutdown in 2018 – 2019 (35 days) and 1995 – 1996 (26 days) and the 2008 Global Financial Crisis.

Despite the signs of decay, many still placed the mantle of leadership squarely on the US and its small coterie of European friends. However, with recent events surrounding the Covid-19 pandemic it has become increasingly clear the US and its 'friends' no longer rule the roost.

In its management of the Covid-19 pandemic, the world has seen the US's dysfunctional soul. While state governors are at loggerheads with the federal government over steps to contain the crisis the US Covid-19 death toll and infection numbers rise uncontrollably. As of April 2, 2020 US deaths attributed to Covid-19 have surpassed China, the original epicentre of the virus.

Through an unending sea of social media content, the world has witnessed the complete disarray in the US (and most of Western Europe) caused by the pandemic. Most revealing are not the lack of resources available to these governments' in tackling the virus but more so the lack of national leadership and policy implementation through state bureaucracies.

The world is used to headlines decrying poor governance, weak infrastructure; limited resources, etc. Such news headlines are common across large swathes of the world. However, they are more normally reserved for parts of Africa or developing Asia than for the US or Europe.

The Covid-19 pandemic has hastened post war global structural changes. The US and Europe, though still powerful, are less relevant international players. 

Following a steady erosion of economic and military power the irreparable loss of reputational prestige due to the management of the Covid-19 pandemic, neither the US nor Europe are able to provide global leadership. For example, there will be no Group of Seven summit resulting in a Baker Plan or issuance of Brady Bonds to save the world's economy from the ravages of the Covid-19 catastrophe. It's every nation for herself.

Until further notice, the world suffers a leadership vacuum.

China may vie to fill the position but it's not ready yet - perhaps in a few decades. More likely, second tier regional powers like India, Russia and Turkey will temporarily fill the void in their respective neighborhoods until a more stable arrangement is reached. 

No matter what the coming new world order looks like, one fact is clear: Trump, Boris and Macron cannot fill the shoes of Reagan, Thatcher or Mitterrand.

__________________

Imran is a Singapore based Tour Guide with a special interest in arts and history. Imran has lived and worked in several countries during his past career as an international banker. He enjoys traveling, especially by train, as a way to feed his curiosity about the world and nurture his interest in photography. He is available on Instagram (@imranahmedsg); twitter (@grandmoofti) and can be contacted at imran.ahmed.sg@gmail.com.

Leadership, paradigms and the Reagan-Thatcher-Mitterand Era

Political leaders are born. Then they are created. Leaders create themselves.

Although leaders are not divorced from wider social trends, a leader by definition influences the direction of these trends. As I look around the world today, I see a world largely bereft of strong leadership.

Obama may be a rock star president to some though on the global stage the US leadership star keeps slipping. PM David Cameron – David who? What - you don't know the name of Britain's prime minister? And President Hollande of France? Yes, Holland is the name of a small Northern European country and Hollande is the name of the recently installed French president.

(Perhaps some social activists may know of Hollande because he is the first French president to move into Paris' Elysee Palace with a 'partner,' not a wife.)

Maybe my concept of political leadership was formed by personalities from the 1980s - a decade of real leadership? Leadership which ultimately led to the demise of the great evil of the day: communism.

Recognize the leaders?

The Brits had Thatcher, the Americans Reagan and the French Mitterand.

All three had presence, aura and a few other things which many leaders of today lack. Sure, there were illegitimate children (Mitterand), the Iran-Contra Scandal (Reagan) but these leaders didn't waffle. They went for the jugular despite social upheavals or negative reactions from the opponents like Arthur Scargill, Galtieri or Brezhnev.  

Look at us today. More than decade into the War on Terror and the world still lives in terror. Aircraft carriers, soldiers and anti-aircraft guns are deployed in the heart of London to stave of terror attacks during the Olympic Games. Granted, OBL was killed in a dramatic commando raid but most everything else is still in a mess.

And, don't try to tell me the global economy's dire straits are not linked to the War on Terror – of which the Iraq occupation was a major part!

It is with mixed emotions that I suggest the world will stay off an even keel for some years to come. Maybe it's that progress is always slightly anarchic – or so I have been told. It's only during periods of stagnation that things stay orderly.

Or maybe, just maybe, I have reached a tipping point in my life - that point at which everything seemed so much better 'back in the day.'

Amidst all this confusion, there is one undisputable fact of which I am certain: music was way better in my day! No debate.

__________________

Imran is a business and management consultant. Through his work at Deodar Advisors and the Deodar Diagnostic, Imran improves profits of businesses operating in Singapore and the region. He can be reached at imran@deodaradvisors.com.