Corona Covid-19 pandemic: death knell for the post-war world order?

Once upon a time the world – or at least the Free World - was led by Reagan, Thatcher and Mitterand. Leaders with presence, standing and most important of all, respect. They were even respected by opponents.

British Prime Minister Thatcher, US President Reagan, French President Mitterrand and
West German Chancellor Schmidt at an international summit meeting (L to R)

During those times the US and its likeminded 'friends,' e.g. Britain and France, ran the world using a combination of bribery and force. They lorded over other lesser nations through a series of interlocking multilateral security arrangements and an economic institutional framework comprising of entities like the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank.  

In a nutshell, that was the post World War Two world order.

But those were different times. The developed world had money and delivered on promises. Other countries believed them.

The US, as the undisputed leader of the 'Free World,' provided a security blanket for its satellite states. In return for ceding a part of their national sovereignty to the US, the US provided clear leadership, especially in times of crisis.  

That was the 1980s. Much has changed in the ensuing four decades.

The Berlin Wall - the symbolic Iron Curtain dividing the world's two Superpowers (the US and the Soviet Union) - came down in 1991. That same year the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) morphed – nay collapsed – and became the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). (The CIS structure was a graceful way for the USSR to exit the Russian Empire's historic obligations and focus on saving Russia itself.)

Socialism all but died with the Soviet Union. Today all countries engage in private enterprise and global trade. Meanwhile Socialism has been discredited though significant parts of socialist philosophy have made their way into mainstream thought, e.g. public healthcare and social safety nets.

China's Belt and Road Initiative reflects China's aspirations as a global trading power

As for the global economy, the US is no longer the undisputed master. To be sure, the US Dollar remains king but its throne is a little shaky.

In the past it was said, "If the US sneezes then the world catches a cold." Today, if the US sneezes, the rest of the world simply says, "Bless You" and moves on. The risk of catching a cold is remote – at least not an intense life threatening cold resulting in mass unemployment.

In 2020 the communist party managed People's Republic of China (PRC) has the world's largest economy. Based on data released by the IMF, World Bank and the CIA, China's economy is significantly larger than its closest rival. Indeed, China's gross domestic product (GDP) surpasses the GDP of the combined European Union (EU) nations.

The deterioration in the US position has not been only in the economic domain.

Extraordinary leaders create and husband prestige. Prestige is an invisible halo which adds to the 'je ne sais quoi' aura of rulers. It is built up over decades but can be lost quickly. 

American prestige reached its peak during the first Iraq war with Operation Desert Storm in 1991 and Powell's 'Shock and Awe' tactics of overwhelming force. Since 1991 a series of events have diminished US global standing.

Militarily, the downtrend started with the 1993 failed US intervention in Somalia, Operation Restore Hope and the casualties suffered in the Battle of Mogadishu. Then came the 9/11 attack, which taking place on US domestic soil was a watershed moment. The subsequent War on Terror, especially the Iraq war and the present scramble to exit Afghanistan, did little to help stem the dissipation of US prestige.

Simultaneously a succession of other minor events, though not as individually significant as the 9/11 attack, cumulatively resulted in tarnishing America's sheen. These include the US federal government shutdown in 2018 – 2019 (35 days) and 1995 – 1996 (26 days) and the 2008 Global Financial Crisis.

Despite the signs of decay, many still placed the mantle of leadership squarely on the US and its small coterie of European friends. However, with recent events surrounding the Covid-19 pandemic it has become increasingly clear the US and its 'friends' no longer rule the roost.

In its management of the Covid-19 pandemic, the world has seen the US's dysfunctional soul. While state governors are at loggerheads with the federal government over steps to contain the crisis the US Covid-19 death toll and infection numbers rise uncontrollably. As of April 2, 2020 US deaths attributed to Covid-19 have surpassed China, the original epicentre of the virus.

Through an unending sea of social media content, the world has witnessed the complete disarray in the US (and most of Western Europe) caused by the pandemic. Most revealing are not the lack of resources available to these governments' in tackling the virus but more so the lack of national leadership and policy implementation through state bureaucracies.

The world is used to headlines decrying poor governance, weak infrastructure; limited resources, etc. Such news headlines are common across large swathes of the world. However, they are more normally reserved for parts of Africa or developing Asia than for the US or Europe.

The Covid-19 pandemic has hastened post war global structural changes. The US and Europe, though still powerful, are less relevant international players. 

Following a steady erosion of economic and military power the irreparable loss of reputational prestige due to the management of the Covid-19 pandemic, neither the US nor Europe are able to provide global leadership. For example, there will be no Group of Seven summit resulting in a Baker Plan or issuance of Brady Bonds to save the world's economy from the ravages of the Covid-19 catastrophe. It's every nation for herself.

Until further notice, the world suffers a leadership vacuum.

China may vie to fill the position but it's not ready yet - perhaps in a few decades. More likely, second tier regional powers like India, Russia and Turkey will temporarily fill the void in their respective neighborhoods until a more stable arrangement is reached. 

No matter what the coming new world order looks like, one fact is clear: Trump, Boris and Macron cannot fill the shoes of Reagan, Thatcher or Mitterrand.

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Imran is a Singapore based Tour Guide with a special interest in arts and history. Imran has lived and worked in several countries during his past career as an international banker. He enjoys traveling, especially by train, as a way to feed his curiosity about the world and nurture his interest in photography. He is available on Instagram (@imranahmedsg); twitter (@grandmoofti) and can be contacted at imran.ahmed.sg@gmail.com.

Book review: The China-Pakistan Axis by Andrew Small

Over the years the China-Pakistan relationship has become a virtual constant in foreign policy matters pertaining to South Asia. Yet it is a relationship about which little is known. That is partly by design – the two nations like to keep the exact nature of the relationship out of the spotlight – but also because few experts have taken the time to dissect it.

Source: Wikipedia

The China – Pakistan Axis by Andrew Small is a worthy attempt to shine light on the longstanding linkages between the two nations.

The book chronicles the development of the relationship over the decades since the 1960s in a changing geopolitical environment. Indeed, the author brackets the relationship into easy to understand ‘bite size’ segments based on underlying themes during particular periods.

By the end of Small’s work, the reader has a good understanding of the main tenets of the Pak – China relationship. Nonetheless, the book is at best an introduction and not an in depth analysis. To be sure, it is an entertaining and worthy introduction.

However, the subject warrants more detailed analyses including in individual aspects of the China – Pakistan relationship, e.g. foreign policy coordination; counter terror cooperation especially with regard to Uygur separatism; economic cooperation; and even military industrial production.

One hopes Small’s book will be the first in a series – by different authors - on what is until now an enigmatic relationship between two very different nations.

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Imran is a Singapore based Tour Guide with a special interest in arts and history. Imran has lived and worked in several countries during his past career as an international banker. He enjoys traveling, especially by train, as a way to feed his curiosity about the world and nurture his interest in photography. He is available on Instagram (@imran_traveller); twitter (@grandmoofti) and can be contacted at imran.ahmed.sg@gmail.com.

Hong Kong: heading towards irrelevance?

A few days ago a friend in the United States asked for my opinion on recent events in Hong Kong (HK). He prefaced his question with Chinese claims about international (read ‘Western’) involvement in stoking the unrest.

Admittedly, my response is not an essay worthy of Foreign Policy magazine. Nonetheless, for interested readers I have reproduced my response below.

Surely, there are 'agent provocateurs' within the HK protest scene. Intelligence agencies directly or at least indirectly are involved with the unrest. There is also a cyber war underway and both parties are pushing their respective narrative through social media.

However, the scale, depth and duration - it's been three months now - suggest genuine underlying grievances garnering popular support from a broad segment of the Hong Kong population.

A view of the protest demonstration in Hong Kong on June 9, 2019 (source: Wikipedia)

HK has historically been a society divided between the ‘haves’ and the ‘have nots’ so perhaps the fear of being left behind among those not in the civil or business elite, especially in light of recent increases in property prices is one major factor?

However, in a general sense Hong Kongers have not mentally accepted their accession to the People’s Republic of China (PRC). That psychological transformation from a British colony to a Special Administrative Region(SAR) of the PRC has not yet been made.

The reality for Hong Kongers is there is no going back to the previous status quo.

There is virtually no possibility of HK being given significantly more autonomy leave alone independence. That parts of the international community are providing 'hope' to protesters suggests, at least to some extent, these protesters are being used by segments of the international community to further their political agendas.

HK had lost its privileged position as a gateway financial hub for the PRC some years ago. PRC 2019 is not the PRC which (re)acquired HK in 1997. 

In the larger context, these protests are accelerating HK’s irrelevance. Within a decade or so HK will simply be another Chinese regional city, like Nanjing, Tianjin, Xian, etc. Surely, like all these smaller Chinese cities, HK will maintain a unique identity based on its own history.

But will HK remain a global, regional or international financial powerhouse and privileged gateway to mainland China? No. HK will become merely another wealthy, entrepreneurial Chinese coastal city.

Ideally, Hong Kongers should embrace their fate (some might even suggest good fortune?) as an SAR within the largest - and still growing - economy in the world. Subsequently, HK can consolidate its competitive strengths within the PRC context to secure a brighter future. 

However, time is fast running out for Hong Kongers to change the current trajectory.

Imran is a Singapore based Tour Guide with a special interest in arts and history. Imran has lived and worked in several countries during his past career as an international banker. He enjoys traveling, especially by train, as a way to feed his curiosity about the world and nurture his interest in photography. He is available on twitter (@grandmoofti); Instagram (@imran_traveller) and can be contacted at imran.ahmed.sg@gmail.com

China plays the ‘Russia Card’

During the Cold War in the 1970s, United States President Nixon played the 'China Card' against Soviet Union. The 'China Card' was powerful enough to trump most anything played by America's Soviet opponents. The US won that hand. That was several decades ago.

In 2013, Red China is adeptly playing its own game of global diplomacy. China watchers have replaced yesterday's Cold War Kremlin watchers.

Modern China holds several strong cards. Global financial markets analyze each and every statistic – no matter how trivial – released by the People's Republic of China (PRC). Every move of influential members of the Communist Party of China is analyzed. Hence, when the new Chinese president makes Russia the destination of his first foreign trip, theories about the tour's significance abound. However, the reason for the visit is simple.

China is playing the 'Russia Card,' directed against the US. China is signalling to the US that the world is not completely unipolar; that public hacking allegations against the Chinese military may have consequences.

The US may be the only nation with the ability to intervene militarily in countries far from its own borders, like Iraq, but even the US has constraints. Those restraints come partially in the form of Russia and China.

To be sure, Russia and China are neighbours with shared interests. Close relations between the two erstwhile communist neighbours makes sense. Nonetheless, Russia and the US clearly feel the need to form a loose alliance against the current dominant world power. Neither country wishes to grant the US a license to ride roughshod over the world – something the US did spectacularly unsuccessfully in Iraq.

History is destined to repeat itself, often only with changed names and dates. Surely that is the case with the present Sino-Russian relationship? The American-Chinese relationship of the 1970–80s was something similar: a marriage of convenience built on a mutual mistrust of the Soviet Union. In the new millennium, a 'China-Russia' axis has been partly catalyzed by shared suspicions about US foreign policy actions.  

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Imran is a business and management consultant. Through his work at Deodar Advisors and the Deodar Diagnostic, Imran improves profits of businesses operating in Singapore and the region. He can be reached at imran@deodaradvisors.com.