Ukraine: a fight to the death!

As we head closer to the six month mark of the Ukraine war, the military confrontation is locked in a virtual stalemate. Despite Russia controlling about twenty percent of pre-war Ukraine there is little likelihood of a military victory by either side anytime soon.

NATO / US will fight until the last Ukrainian and the Russians are in no mood to talk either. The implications of this stubborn desire to fight are severe.

 Source: Pexels

1. Ukraine will suffer more widespread and intense destruction while Ukrainians will continue to be displaced as internal and external refugees (at least the Ukrainians can move freely to other countries!).

2. In a stalemate, NATO is tempted to escalate the war to achieve its aim of weakening Russia, i.e. more advanced weaponry in larger quantities will be sent to Ukraine. In turn, this will increase the likelihood of Russians attacking NATO supply lines within Ukraine but possibly also in Poland. Whether NATO starts protecting these vital supply routes inside Ukraine with 'disguised' NATO personnel (say as foreign mercenaries from the Ukrainian Foreign Legion) or contractors is an open question? Another potential flashpoint.

3. For its part, if Russia believes the war is shifting decisively away it will fall back to a long standing Cold War strategic doctrine, i.e. threaten to go nuclear. Subsequently, NATO will have to play 'nuclear' chicken over Ukraine and call Russia's bluff or threaten escalation itself.

4. Militarily the war can only get more dangerous. Both sides will feel the need to escalate if the balance tips to the other party. NATO and Russia have backed themselves into political corners domestically with little flexibility for a face saving climb down.

5. Oil, gas and food inflation will not subside while Western sanctions remain in force. Poorer nations will suffer disproportionately. Sri Lanka and Ecuador are examples of possible outcomes in many other states. Europe will also suffer due to disruptions in its energy supplies. Hence, European domestic discontent over the war will increase the longer the war lasts.

6. Post war (we'll have to think about a post-war world sometime!), the world will be left with roaming hordes of trained and weaponized far right extremists. These extremists, currently extolled as war heroes fighting for freedom and democracy, will pose an immediate threat to Europe's internal security as they transition from loose, individually driven anti-state movements to battle hardened entities with a chain of command (remember the origins of the Taliban?).

Source: Pexels

To be sure, in the current situation an early end to the war is unlikely. Thus, one wonders who benefits more from a protracted conflict, Russia or NATO?

In Russia war fatigue, especially as sanctions start to bite, will grow with time. Russia will also face problems recruiting soldiers as it runs out of able bodied people due to mounting casualties as well as war fatigue.

Similarly, Ukrainians too will run out of people. Perhaps that may precipitate soldiers from friendly countries like Poland, etc. be given 'leave of absence' to join the Ukrainian Foriegn Legion (of their own volition of course!) to supplement diminishing personnel in the Ukrainian army.

Moreover, as the cost of the war starts to hit US / European budgets, support for Ukraine will cool and feed an anti-war movement, especially as inflation hits people's wallets. This will ultimately force political leaders to shift focus from a military to a diplomatic solution. However, that may be many months away.

The Ukraine war has made the world a messy and dangerous place. Many countries will pay the price for what is essentially another European war (great power politics of the nineteenth century come to mind). One can only hope sanity prevails and efforts shift towards a political solution sooner rather than later. Only after peace is restored can the world can begin the difficult process of rebuilding.

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Imran is an adventurer, blogger, consultant, guide, photographer, speaker, traveler and a banker in his previous life. Imran lives in Singapore. He is available on Instagram (@imranahmedsg) and can be contacted at imran.ahmed.sg@gmail.com.

Occupied: Norwegian television series a review

Occupied is a Norwegian television series which tells the story of a series of political events leading to the Russian military occupation of Norway.

A Russian military occupation of Norway may sound unrealistic but the series plays out in such a manner that it's almost believable. After a few episodes it doesn't really matter as the plot fully draws in the viewer. The intricate plot blends love, political intrigue, action and European politics in a believable fashion.

The military intervention was all about Norway's enormous oil and gas reserves.

Yes, the geopolitics of oil and gas are intense. After all, wasn't the US intervention in Iraq all about oil? So why should one be so surprised something similar could happen in the heart of Europe with Russia as the antagonist?

Occupied is watchable despite the acting. At times, the acting leaves a lot to be desired. It is wooden with characters seeming to simply 'go through the motions.' The depth in characters is therefore missing.

Nonetheless, Occupied is a must watch for anyone interested in political thrillers. It builds a credible story based on plausible situations. The gaps in the plot are forgivable given the entertainment value of the series.

Note: At the the time of writing, two season of Occupied are available on Netflix in many jurisdiction.

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Imran is an adventurer, blogger, consultant, guide, photographer, speaker, traveler and a banker in his previous life. He is available on twitter (@grandmoofti); Instagram (@imranahmedsg) and can be contacted at imran.ahmed.sg@gmail.com.

Burning Country: Syrians in Revolution and War - a book review

Think your life is complicated? Try figuring out the Syrian war. Only then can one really know what complicated means.

Burning Country: Syrians in Revolution and War, coauthored by Robin Yassin-Kassab and Leila Al-Shami, tries to lucidly dissect the state of the nation as at 2016. Sure, it's hard for academic works to keep pace with the fast changing ground realities of the country. However, Burning Country does provide a summary of events which led to Syria becoming a playground for opposing forces, including Assad, Islamic State (ISIS) and Kurdish Leftist groups.

Both authors suggest the present state of affairs is a byproduct of a home grown revolution designed only to overthrow the Assad patriarchal state. Due to the Assad regime's brutally violent counterrevolutionary response a power vacuum ensued. It's this power vacuum which has been filled by opposing domestic forces as well as the (none too invisible) hands of foreign influences.

The Gulf monarchies, Iran, Russia, Turkey and the US exercise varying degrees of influence to protect their interests. The authors' are cynical of virtually all foreign countries indicating no nation recognizes the Revolution as indigenous and none does much to address the humanitarian crisis tearing Syria apart. Indeed, the book suggests foreigners play a dirty, selfish game by maintaining a balance of power between several domestic players – as long as ISIS is kept in check.

Burning Country underscores the complexities of modern Middle Eastern politics. It's a sad book to read as the reader clearly sees the train wreck arising out of the many missteps and gradual militarization of an erstwhile civil disobedience movement. The slow destruction of a state with the consequent impact on millions of lives is apparent for all to see (refugee crisis anyone?).

Undoubtedly, Syria has now gone the way of Afghanistan (Iraq?). It ceases to be a 'normal' nation state and will be difficult, if not impossible, to fix in the coming decades. Not least because of the substantial depopulation and sectarian hatred besetting today's Syria.

Imran is a Singapore based Tour Guide with a special interest in arts and history. Imran has lived and worked in several countries during his career as an international banker. He enjoys traveling, especially by train, as a way to feed his curiosity about the world and nurture his interest in photography. He is available on twitter (@grandmoofti); Instagram(@imranahmedsg) and can be contacted at imran.ahmed.sg@gmail.com.

The 'Post 9/11' era and periods in history

World history is conveniently divided into periods. It is likely September 11, 2001 marked the end of the post-war period and the beginning of a new era. The events of 9/11 are a handy reference point for a 'before' and 'after' comparison.

'Before' included a relatively stable economic order buttressed by the Bretton Woods Agreement; a political structure based on clear demarcations between the Communist bloc led by the Soviet Union (remember the USSR?) and the Free World led by the US.

Developing nations joined either the American or Soviet camp. In return for supporting either the capitalist or communist systems these countries were given economic and military aid, a form of clientelism. Ostensibly, the aid delivered by the patron Superpower was meant for development. To be sure, much of the aid did trickle down to the masses, positively affecting the lives of millions. However, a large part of the aid money was recycled back into Western economies. Corrupt politicians pocketed aid money and deposited these funds into bank accounts say in London and Geneva. Once in the international banking system, the money returned to the developed economies.

While the 'Eastern bloc – Western bloc' system may not have worked for all, it worked for some. Certainly it worked for those at the top who managed it.

Then came the demise of the USSR. And the evolution of 'Socialism with Chinese characteristics' in Deng Xiaoping's China. The Communist bloc disappeared almost overnight. If that weren't enough, 9/11 happened.

Suddenly, the world was reeling from violence underpinned by a so-called Islamic ideology (even if the ideology is decidedly un-Islamic to most Muslims). One thing led to another and before sane people could blink, the US and its Coalition of the Willing implemented Operation Enduring Freedom and invaded Iraq in 2003.

US soldiers enter a palace in Baghdad, Iraq in 2003 (Source: Wikipedia)

The Iraq invasion precipitated a chain of events which continue in motion until today. Already a tinderbox due to the Palestinian question, the Middle East erupted into a cacophony of wars, revolutions and ever changing political alliances.

Shia Persia – contemporary Iran – viewing itself as a historic regional power adeptly filled political vacuums in Iraq and Syria thereby adding to its already strong foothold in Lebanon via Hezbollah. Simultaneously, Sunni Islam's Al-Qaeeda virus transformed into a more deadly disease called Islamic State (IS). IS, mainly through its involvement in Syria and Iraq, fueled the symbiotic relationship between extreme versions of Sunni and Shia Islam. Ultimately influential state actors were sucked into the conflict.

Saudi Arabia, along with its new best friend the United Arab Emirates (UAE), initiated a military expedition in Yemen with sideshows in Bahrain and Qatar. All three operations avowedly designed to block Shia Iran's expanding influence in the Arab world. Indeed, it now appears a tacit alliance between Saudi Arabia and the Arab world's historic 'Mother of All Enemies' i.e. Zionist Israel, is in the works to counter Iran's regional strength.

Throw in a hot-headed 32 year old ruler – Saudi Arabia's new Crown Prince – and a fiery anti-Western Turkish Islamist politician – President Erdogan – and the ingredients for prolonged instability are truly in place.

An Al-Qaeeda affiliated fighter in the Sahel region of Africa (Source: Wikipedia)

On the bigger global stage, a reprise of the 1970s Cold War is taking place in the form of renewed conflict between the US and Russia (and China). Meanwhile, 'Red' China has transformed itself into an economic and political powerhouse. Indeed, the health of the global economy hinges on Chinese growth rates. If China sneezes the world catches a cold. Buttressed by its new found economic clout, China now employs a more muscular foreign policy in order to project its strength. The South China Sea dispute is evidence of China's new approach.

The world is in a new 'Post 9/11' phase. It is doubtful there were many certainties in the past. Now there are even fewer certainties – simply many questions which only time can answer.

It is in this context that I enrolled for the online course, “Understanding 9/11: Why 9/11 Happened and How Terrorism Affects Our World Today” offered by Duke University. The course should provide me with information about recent changes. Undoubtedly, like any humanities course, there are biases in the material and its presentation. However, I intend to soak in the knowledge in order to make better personal judgments about the subject (isn't that the purpose of learning?).

To complete the course I am required to submit two papers. The first assignment – a maximum of 1,000 words – is about 'Radical Islamic Fundamentalism.' Through the document I must explain key elements of Al-Qaeeda's philosophy, its origins and the radicalization process to my local police chief.

Below is my paper in its entirety.

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To: The Commissioner,

Singapore Police Force,

Republic of Singapore.

From: Imran Ahmed,

Policy Consultant,

Radical Islamic Fundamentalism Expert.

Subject: Origins and key elements of radical Islamic fundamentalism and the radicalization process

Date: November 18, 2017

'Radical Islamic Fundamentalism' has the potential to drive individuals towards violence. One dangerous strand of radical Islamic fundamentalist ideology is provided by Osama Bin Laden's (OBL) Al-Qaeeda and its offshoots such as ISIS and Jemaah Islamia (JI). These fringe Islamic ideologies form a critical part of any individual's radicalization process and must be understood as they potentially pose a threat to Singapore as a plural multicultural society.

Origins of Radical Islamic Fundamentalism

Radical Islamic fundamentalism relies on specific interpretations of historical and contemporary conditions found in the Islamic world. These conditions can be categorized into three broad headings: political and economic decline; 'un-Islamic' religious practices; and Westernization of Muslim societies.

Firstly, radicals believe the political and economic decline of the Islamic world is directly attributed to non-Muslim Western nations, e.g. the destruction of the Ottoman Empire and related Islamic Caliphate. Western colonialism is also blamed for the demise of Islamic nations and dividing the Islamic Ummah into arbitrarily defined nation states.

Secondly, radical Islamists consider contemporary Islamic beliefs and practices to be tainted by centuries of influence from 'un-Islamic' ideas. Consequently, present day Islamic society and religion is believed be fundamentally 'corrupt.'

Lastly, these radicals believe Islamic societies have been 'Westernized' through centuries of contact with 'un-Islamic' Western nations. That is, Islamic societies are diffused with un-Islamic cultural and social practices. In recent years, this belief has been compounded by the forces of globalization.

Al-Qaeeda Ideology: Some Key Elements

Al-Qaeeda believes there is a war taking place between Islam and the West, including the US. It is therefore a religious duty of all Muslims to wage war – a lesser Jihad – against Americans and Westerners in order to protect the Islamic world and avenge its mistreatment by the West. Moreover, any Muslims not participating in this war are deemed un-Islamic and, hence, legitimate targets under OBL's call for jihad. The ideology makes no distinction between civilian and military combatants, all are potential targets in this holy war.

In OBL's 1996 Declaration of Jihad, he built on ideas expounded by an Egyptian Islamist thinker named Sayyid Qutb in a book titled Milestones (1964). In Milestones Qutb wrote, “Our whole environment, people's beliefs and ideas, their habits and art, rules and laws - is Jahiliyyah [an age of barbarity or darkness predating Islam].”

In the Declaration, OBL appeals to economic, social and political grievances within the Muslim world to advance his argument. He states Muslims and Islamic nations have been humiliated by Western nations in many ways, e.g. through war, occupation and plunder.

In 1998, in a bid to gain more credibility, OBL joined forces with several known religious figures and issued a statement under the World Islamic Front banner. In this 1998 call to action, Al-Qaeeda focuses more openly on America. He refers to the US 'occupation' of Holy Lands in Saudi Arabia – a reference to US soldiers stationed in Saudi Arabia. Further, the statement speaks of ongoing injustices such as United Nations and US sanctions against Iraq following the 1991 war. In a final bid to convince his audience, Bin Laden attempts to associate the US with Israel, using Israel's general unpopularity within the Islamic world.

Al-Qaeeda's radical Islamic ideology urges violence against American and Western persons and interests. Indeed, the ideology goes further by exhorting Muslims to fulfill their religious duty by undertaking such violence, even against other Muslims who are seen as passive bystanders in this holy war against the US. The 9/11 attacks are the most poignant examples of such violence.

Radicalizing Individuals to Violence

Radicalizing individuals to commit acts of violence is a complex process. There is no predetermined, rigid or formulaic path by which an individual moves from being a non-violent individual to one ready to commit violence in the name of Islam, even if the person is sympathetic to radical Islamic fundamentalist causes.

There are multiple routes towards radicalization and many use forms of social media. Likewise, there appears to be no one type of individual who tends to radicalize.

A review of known radical Islamic terrorists demonstrates diversity across national, ethnic, linguistic, educational and socioeconomic backgrounds. Hence, it is difficult for law enforcers to detect potential terrorists based on a specific racial profile. Nevertheless, evidence indicates that most terrorists tend to be young males.

Some individuals radicalize because they experienced a traumatic event, e.g. death of an acquaintance or family member. Consequently, they may wish to avenge the death and turn to terrorism. Alternately, the individual may identify with a larger group (e.g. Iraqi Sunni Muslims) which he somehow seeks to defend from an 'enemy.'

There are several other known theoretical tracks to radicalization discussed by radicalization expert Clark McCauley. These include thrill seeking by young persons. Another is based on Group Dynamics. Here individuals within a group tend to move towards extremes and ultimately all members of the group are radicalized. Group isolation, where a group is isolated from society and hence strengthens bonds to such an extent where violence becomes acceptable is another possibility. Mass politics is another method. Here if a group is attacked then it may respond in ways – i.e. violence – which otherwise it may otherwise have considered inappropriate.

It is important to state that most sympathizers of radical Islam seem not to take the final step towards violence.

Conclusion

As has been seen by the capture and detention of several Jemaah Islamia (JI) terrorists and radicalized individuals, Al-Qaeeda's extreme radical Islamic fundamentalist ideology has the ability to influence Muslims in Singapore towards extreme violent behavior. (JI is the Al-Qaeeda offshoot active in Southeast Asia.) Radical Islamic fundamentalist ideology espouses violence against open societies such as Singapore and even against Muslims who have integrated into a pluralistic, tolerant society. While there is no single route to radicalization, it is known that the largest group of potential terrorists are young males. Hence, It is important Singapore curbs their ability to seek out and imbibe radical Islamic ideological thought and the individuals / groups which espouse such thought.

Imran is an adventurer, blogger, consultant, guide, photographer, speaker, traveler and a banker in his previous life. At the time of writing, Imran is living in Rashidabad, Pakistan as a volunteer teacher at the SST Public School. He is available on twitter (@grandmoofti); Instagram (@imranahmedsg) and can be contacted at imran.ahmed.sg@gmail.com.