Ukraine: a fight to the death!

As we head closer to the six month mark of the Ukraine war, the military confrontation is locked in a virtual stalemate. Despite Russia controlling about twenty percent of pre-war Ukraine there is little likelihood of a military victory by either side anytime soon.

NATO / US will fight until the last Ukrainian and the Russians are in no mood to talk either. The implications of this stubborn desire to fight are severe.

 Source: Pexels

1. Ukraine will suffer more widespread and intense destruction while Ukrainians will continue to be displaced as internal and external refugees (at least the Ukrainians can move freely to other countries!).

2. In a stalemate, NATO is tempted to escalate the war to achieve its aim of weakening Russia, i.e. more advanced weaponry in larger quantities will be sent to Ukraine. In turn, this will increase the likelihood of Russians attacking NATO supply lines within Ukraine but possibly also in Poland. Whether NATO starts protecting these vital supply routes inside Ukraine with 'disguised' NATO personnel (say as foreign mercenaries from the Ukrainian Foreign Legion) or contractors is an open question? Another potential flashpoint.

3. For its part, if Russia believes the war is shifting decisively away it will fall back to a long standing Cold War strategic doctrine, i.e. threaten to go nuclear. Subsequently, NATO will have to play 'nuclear' chicken over Ukraine and call Russia's bluff or threaten escalation itself.

4. Militarily the war can only get more dangerous. Both sides will feel the need to escalate if the balance tips to the other party. NATO and Russia have backed themselves into political corners domestically with little flexibility for a face saving climb down.

5. Oil, gas and food inflation will not subside while Western sanctions remain in force. Poorer nations will suffer disproportionately. Sri Lanka and Ecuador are examples of possible outcomes in many other states. Europe will also suffer due to disruptions in its energy supplies. Hence, European domestic discontent over the war will increase the longer the war lasts.

6. Post war (we'll have to think about a post-war world sometime!), the world will be left with roaming hordes of trained and weaponized far right extremists. These extremists, currently extolled as war heroes fighting for freedom and democracy, will pose an immediate threat to Europe's internal security as they transition from loose, individually driven anti-state movements to battle hardened entities with a chain of command (remember the origins of the Taliban?).

Source: Pexels

To be sure, in the current situation an early end to the war is unlikely. Thus, one wonders who benefits more from a protracted conflict, Russia or NATO?

In Russia war fatigue, especially as sanctions start to bite, will grow with time. Russia will also face problems recruiting soldiers as it runs out of able bodied people due to mounting casualties as well as war fatigue.

Similarly, Ukrainians too will run out of people. Perhaps that may precipitate soldiers from friendly countries like Poland, etc. be given 'leave of absence' to join the Ukrainian Foriegn Legion (of their own volition of course!) to supplement diminishing personnel in the Ukrainian army.

Moreover, as the cost of the war starts to hit US / European budgets, support for Ukraine will cool and feed an anti-war movement, especially as inflation hits people's wallets. This will ultimately force political leaders to shift focus from a military to a diplomatic solution. However, that may be many months away.

The Ukraine war has made the world a messy and dangerous place. Many countries will pay the price for what is essentially another European war (great power politics of the nineteenth century come to mind). One can only hope sanity prevails and efforts shift towards a political solution sooner rather than later. Only after peace is restored can the world can begin the difficult process of rebuilding.

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Imran is an adventurer, blogger, consultant, guide, photographer, speaker, traveler and a banker in his previous life. Imran lives in Singapore. He is available on Instagram (@imranahmedsg) and can be contacted at imran.ahmed.sg@gmail.com.

Corona Covid-19 pandemic: death knell for the post-war world order?

Once upon a time the world – or at least the Free World - was led by Reagan, Thatcher and Mitterand. Leaders with presence, standing and most important of all, respect. They were even respected by opponents.

British Prime Minister Thatcher, US President Reagan, French President Mitterrand and
West German Chancellor Schmidt at an international summit meeting (L to R)

During those times the US and its likeminded 'friends,' e.g. Britain and France, ran the world using a combination of bribery and force. They lorded over other lesser nations through a series of interlocking multilateral security arrangements and an economic institutional framework comprising of entities like the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank.  

In a nutshell, that was the post World War Two world order.

But those were different times. The developed world had money and delivered on promises. Other countries believed them.

The US, as the undisputed leader of the 'Free World,' provided a security blanket for its satellite states. In return for ceding a part of their national sovereignty to the US, the US provided clear leadership, especially in times of crisis.  

That was the 1980s. Much has changed in the ensuing four decades.

The Berlin Wall - the symbolic Iron Curtain dividing the world's two Superpowers (the US and the Soviet Union) - came down in 1991. That same year the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) morphed – nay collapsed – and became the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). (The CIS structure was a graceful way for the USSR to exit the Russian Empire's historic obligations and focus on saving Russia itself.)

Socialism all but died with the Soviet Union. Today all countries engage in private enterprise and global trade. Meanwhile Socialism has been discredited though significant parts of socialist philosophy have made their way into mainstream thought, e.g. public healthcare and social safety nets.

China's Belt and Road Initiative reflects China's aspirations as a global trading power

As for the global economy, the US is no longer the undisputed master. To be sure, the US Dollar remains king but its throne is a little shaky.

In the past it was said, "If the US sneezes then the world catches a cold." Today, if the US sneezes, the rest of the world simply says, "Bless You" and moves on. The risk of catching a cold is remote – at least not an intense life threatening cold resulting in mass unemployment.

In 2020 the communist party managed People's Republic of China (PRC) has the world's largest economy. Based on data released by the IMF, World Bank and the CIA, China's economy is significantly larger than its closest rival. Indeed, China's gross domestic product (GDP) surpasses the GDP of the combined European Union (EU) nations.

The deterioration in the US position has not been only in the economic domain.

Extraordinary leaders create and husband prestige. Prestige is an invisible halo which adds to the 'je ne sais quoi' aura of rulers. It is built up over decades but can be lost quickly. 

American prestige reached its peak during the first Iraq war with Operation Desert Storm in 1991 and Powell's 'Shock and Awe' tactics of overwhelming force. Since 1991 a series of events have diminished US global standing.

Militarily, the downtrend started with the 1993 failed US intervention in Somalia, Operation Restore Hope and the casualties suffered in the Battle of Mogadishu. Then came the 9/11 attack, which taking place on US domestic soil was a watershed moment. The subsequent War on Terror, especially the Iraq war and the present scramble to exit Afghanistan, did little to help stem the dissipation of US prestige.

Simultaneously a succession of other minor events, though not as individually significant as the 9/11 attack, cumulatively resulted in tarnishing America's sheen. These include the US federal government shutdown in 2018 – 2019 (35 days) and 1995 – 1996 (26 days) and the 2008 Global Financial Crisis.

Despite the signs of decay, many still placed the mantle of leadership squarely on the US and its small coterie of European friends. However, with recent events surrounding the Covid-19 pandemic it has become increasingly clear the US and its 'friends' no longer rule the roost.

In its management of the Covid-19 pandemic, the world has seen the US's dysfunctional soul. While state governors are at loggerheads with the federal government over steps to contain the crisis the US Covid-19 death toll and infection numbers rise uncontrollably. As of April 2, 2020 US deaths attributed to Covid-19 have surpassed China, the original epicentre of the virus.

Through an unending sea of social media content, the world has witnessed the complete disarray in the US (and most of Western Europe) caused by the pandemic. Most revealing are not the lack of resources available to these governments' in tackling the virus but more so the lack of national leadership and policy implementation through state bureaucracies.

The world is used to headlines decrying poor governance, weak infrastructure; limited resources, etc. Such news headlines are common across large swathes of the world. However, they are more normally reserved for parts of Africa or developing Asia than for the US or Europe.

The Covid-19 pandemic has hastened post war global structural changes. The US and Europe, though still powerful, are less relevant international players. 

Following a steady erosion of economic and military power the irreparable loss of reputational prestige due to the management of the Covid-19 pandemic, neither the US nor Europe are able to provide global leadership. For example, there will be no Group of Seven summit resulting in a Baker Plan or issuance of Brady Bonds to save the world's economy from the ravages of the Covid-19 catastrophe. It's every nation for herself.

Until further notice, the world suffers a leadership vacuum.

China may vie to fill the position but it's not ready yet - perhaps in a few decades. More likely, second tier regional powers like India, Russia and Turkey will temporarily fill the void in their respective neighborhoods until a more stable arrangement is reached. 

No matter what the coming new world order looks like, one fact is clear: Trump, Boris and Macron cannot fill the shoes of Reagan, Thatcher or Mitterrand.

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Imran is a Singapore based Tour Guide with a special interest in arts and history. Imran has lived and worked in several countries during his past career as an international banker. He enjoys traveling, especially by train, as a way to feed his curiosity about the world and nurture his interest in photography. He is available on Instagram (@imranahmedsg); twitter (@grandmoofti) and can be contacted at imran.ahmed.sg@gmail.com.

Istanbul – not Constantinople

Turkey is a long way from Singapore. And despite 97 percent of the country's land mass and approximately 90 percent of Turkey's population being in Asia – it's a stretch to consider Turkey an Asian nation. At least not the Asia represented by Singapore.

A view across the Golden Horn on the European side of Istanbul. The Galata Tower can be seen towering over the city skyline (photo: Imran Ahmed)

Though Singapore and Turkish Airlines offer direct flights covering the almost 9,000 kilometers between Singapore and Istanbul, Gulf carriers like Emirates and Qatar Airways offer cheaper fares though with the discomfort of a transit in Dubai and Doha respectively. On this journey I chose Qatar Airways and had a two hour layover in Doha.

Qatar Airways was a good decision. The airline did not disappoint. New planes with good in-flight entertainment options; staff was attentive and available for that cup of tea or glass of water even in the middle of the night (both flights were night flights).

Doha airport? It's a contrast from Dubai airport. Dubai airport is crowded (bustling!) and has started to look tired. Dubai shows its age - it has been a popular air travel hub for several decades. On the contrary, Doha Hamad Airport is (relatively) new. Passengers have some breathing space. Perhaps it's not fair to compare an airport (Doha) which serves 35 million passengers with the third busiest airport (Dubai) in the world serving almost 90 million passengers in 2018?

There's no reaching a destination without a journey … but this post is about my arrival in Istanbul and not my experiences getting to Istanbul.

Crowds of people throng the streets of Kadikoy in the Asian side of Istanbul (photo: Imran Ahmed)

Istanbul, not Constantinople!

More than many cities, Istanbul is a living collection of the multiple civilizations which have owned the city streets over the centuries. Dating from the pre-Christian Roman period to today's Turkish Republic. Physical traces of each civilization are visible around the nation, from Roman ruins to Byzantine churches to Ottoman mosques and everything in between.

However, Istanbul's 'je ne sais quoi' comes from its cultural uniqueness.

By any yardstick, Istanbul is an European city. It has an European feel about it. Yet, the uninitiated may be surprised to hear the Azan or Muslim call to prayer ringing crisply through the air five times daily. Moreover, a glass of wine or beer are easily available at restaurants and cafes around the city. Again, the uninitiated will soon realize it's virtually impossible to find a ham and cheese sandwich in Istanbul. Alcoholic beverages are alright but pig meat is not!

Just as there is more to Istanbul than the Hagia Sofia and the Blue Mosque there is more to Turkey than Istanbul. Stay tuned for more from Turkey. The mystery and adventures in the proverbial Orient are just beginning.

Imran is a Singapore based Tour Guide with a special interest in arts and history. Imran has lived and worked in several countries during his career as an international banker. He enjoys traveling, especially by train, as a way to feed his curiosity about the world and nurture his interest in photography. He is available on twitter (@grandmoofti); Instagram(@imranahmedsg) and can be contacted at imran.ahmed.sg@gmail.com.

Occupied: Norwegian television series a review

Occupied is a Norwegian television series which tells the story of a series of political events leading to the Russian military occupation of Norway.

A Russian military occupation of Norway may sound unrealistic but the series plays out in such a manner that it's almost believable. After a few episodes it doesn't really matter as the plot fully draws in the viewer. The intricate plot blends love, political intrigue, action and European politics in a believable fashion.

The military intervention was all about Norway's enormous oil and gas reserves.

Yes, the geopolitics of oil and gas are intense. After all, wasn't the US intervention in Iraq all about oil? So why should one be so surprised something similar could happen in the heart of Europe with Russia as the antagonist?

Occupied is watchable despite the acting. At times, the acting leaves a lot to be desired. It is wooden with characters seeming to simply 'go through the motions.' The depth in characters is therefore missing.

Nonetheless, Occupied is a must watch for anyone interested in political thrillers. It builds a credible story based on plausible situations. The gaps in the plot are forgivable given the entertainment value of the series.

Note: At the the time of writing, two season of Occupied are available on Netflix in many jurisdiction.

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Imran is an adventurer, blogger, consultant, guide, photographer, speaker, traveler and a banker in his previous life. He is available on twitter (@grandmoofti); Instagram (@imranahmedsg) and can be contacted at imran.ahmed.sg@gmail.com.

Europe can accept large numbers of immigrants – a lesson learnt in yesterday's Malaya!

Recently, television screens are filled with pictures of a stream of mostly Arab refugees wandering into Europe. Many Europeans are disturbed at the images of sheer desperation but are also worried about the future impact of accepting these refugees.

One may argue these refugees are simply 'collateral damage' from the various invasions and wars (Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and Syria) waged by Western powers in the name of freedom and democracy. One may also pontificate about the moral obligation Europe, particularly NATO member states, have towards refugees from war torn regions of the Middle East.

Note the countries accepting the largest refugee populations in the world, based on UN data, are not wealthy, e.g. Lebanon, Pakistan, Turkey.

Let us not do either and, instead, take a look at a few numbers.

According to the CIA, Iraq has an estimated population of 37 million people and Syria 17 million. Simple mathematics suggests that if Europe hypothetically accepts and relocates the entire living populations of both Syria and Iraq, i.e. 54 million souls, they will Europeans will still account for just about ten percent of Europe's current population of over 500 million people. In other words, 'existing' European residents will comprise 90 percent of the population even after such a large (and unrealistic) dislocation of populations.

Undoubtedly, there are issues of geographic concentrations, etc. but then these refugees are 'Yuppie Migrants.' They are better educated than the average economic migrant of the last few centuries.

Refugees march through Hungary in August 2015

Now take a look at some historic numbers from Southeast Asia.

Singapore and the broader Malaya region (today's Malaysia) was virtually exclusively inhabited by various Malay speaking peoples from the region in 1819. Then in 1819 the British East India Company established its presence and colonized the island for king and country. Subsequently, British colonial authorities opened up the floodgates to new arrivals (this is not the place to analyze the reasons for such a policy).

Immigration from China and India was so intense that Malays are a minority in Singapore. Malays now account for less than fifteen percent of Singapore's population. In Malaysia, non-Malays constitute approximately forty percent of the country's population. The demographics of Singapore and Malaya have changed indescribably since the advent of colonialism.

Here is an account of events from Singapore published in 1846. It reads much like events pertaining to the European Refugee Crisis of today.

Incessant Chinese migrant arrivals stretch colony's infrastructure

Singapore's authorities are overwhelmed by the daily arrival of thousands of economic migrants from China and India. The wave of immigrants, primarily from China's southern Fujian province, arrive at a make-shift jetty on Telok Ayer Street. Thence, the fortunate souls who survive the perilous weeks long sea journey immediately proceed to the nearby Thian Hock Keng Temple to give thanks to the Goddess of the Seas – Ma Zhu. Most Chinese immigrants believe their safe arrival is due in large part to Ma Zhu's helping hand.

While speaking to this correspondent about the difficulties of accommodating such a large number of immigrants, social worker John Doe said, "To add to our problems, a steady stream of migrants from the Tamil speaking Coromandel coast of India are also arriving in large numbers. Both groups are fleeing instability and poverty in their homelands and believe Singapore to be the new Promised Land."

Authorities are concerned at the impact the newcomers will have on the ethnic mix of the predominantly Malay-Muslim population of Singapore. Already, some Malays have expressed discomfort at the changing racial and ethnic mix on the island. The disgruntlement about the changing character of the island is compounded by the religious and cultural traditions of most new migrants. These Malays suggest the large influx of idol worshipping foreigners will create tensions among an otherwise harmonious complex of diverse Malay communities.

Authorities have established cells to register the migrants, though most simply make their way to the nearest Chinese clan association for assistance. The lucky ones knock on the doors of a distant relative or friend who is already residing in Singapore.

Medical practitioners are alarmed at the crowded conditions in streets surrounding South Bridge Road and are urging authorities to designate special buildings as refugee camps for the wary, hungry and often sick refugees.

Excerpt from "Incessant Chinese migrant arrivals stretch colony's infrastructure." The Straights Times, August 14, 1846.*

First port of call for many Chinese refugees arriving in Singapore was the Thian Hock Keng Temple, now a popular tourist attraction

Singapore not only survived the onslaught of migrants from foreign lands but perhaps the island thrived as a result of the new migrants!

Europe, too, has an opportunity to reinvent itself and emerge a stronger and more dynamic continent. European nations may either do this willingly by helping integrate the current wave of refugees or, alternately, these nations may swim against the tide of history by erecting physical and psychological barriers against the new entrants.

Let us see whether European values extend beyond the continent's own borders.

* Please note this article is a fictional account of events written by the blogger in 2015. It is not a genuine excerpt from any newspaper of other publication.

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Imran is a business and management consultant. Through his work at Deodar Advisors and the Deodar Diagnostic, Imran improves profits of businesses operating in Singapore and the region. He can be reached at imran@deodaradvisors.com.

Sarajevo: Bosnia’s microcosm of humanity

If Serbia was an eye-opener then Bosnia was no less an amazing experience!

As the crow flies, the distance between Belgrade and Sarajevo is less than 200 kilometres – a couple of hours on a German autobahn or an intercity train! However, train services between Belgrade and Sarajevo were suspended in 2012 making bus travel the best option.

Given the mountainous (and beautiful!) terrain traversed during the road journey, the actual distance traveled on a bus is approximately 300 kilometres. Including a few rest stops, immigration formalities to exit Serbia and enter Bosnia (two independent nations), the entire journey takes almost eight hours. A long but manageable ride.

The Sebilj or Ottoman style wooden fountain located in Bascarsija Square, an old city district

The highway from Belgrade takes one through fairly typical (yet beautiful!) European countryside. It is only closer to the Bosnian frontier that the land becomes mountainous. Sarajevo proper is situated 500 meters above sea level in a valley of the Dinaric Alps.

Although the Bosnian countryside is spectacular especially when seen from such high vantage points, it is the pervasiveness of graveyards, large and small, dotted across Bosnia which one finds striking. The cemeteries are a reminder of the horrors – and massacres – of the Yugoslav civil war of the 1990s. As recently as October 2013, a mass grave believed to contain over 1,000 bodies was found near a village in Northwest Bosnia.

(View a vivid pictorial essay of the Bosnian War by the Atlantic magazine here.)

The bus curves its way up mountains on narrow roads until at some point it begins its descent again. (Travelers prone to motion sickness or suffering from fear of heights may wish to carry ginger and / or sleeping pills!)

There is a sense of excitement about entering Sarajevo after hours of driving in sparsely populated rural areas; entering civilization after wandering about in 'no man's land!'

The Latin Bridge across the Miljacka River. The bridge was the site of Austrian Archduke Franz Ferdinand's assassination in 1914, an event which precipitated World War One 

From first glance, one realizes Sarajevo is an old and unique city. Europe but still not quite Europe: more Europe than Istanbul but as Ottoman as any Turkish city, especially in architectural terms.

Moreover, Sarajevo is a city of hills with narrow streets and lanes. A great city for keeping fit as walking – even a short distance of a few hundred meters to the nearest tram station – requires negotiating steep inclines. There is also a medieval, 'stone houses and cobbled streets' atmosphere within Sarajevo, nowhere more so than in the Baščaršija Square located in the old town.

Sarajevo is a must see city for any traveler: a city of functioning synagogues, cathedrals and mosques; a city which recently hosted Pope Francis. Sarajevo is also a city which was only recently (at least for historians!) plunged into despair, despondency and an orgy of bloodletting along religious and ethnic lines.  

A dog drinks water at the Sebilj water fountain

In so many ways, Sarajevo personifies the best and worst of human nature: a city of tolerance, peace and harmony and yet also a city of war and unspeakable atrocities.

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Imran is a business and management consultant. Through his work at Deodar Advisors and the Deodar Diagnostic, Imran improves profits of businesses operating in Singapore and the region. He can be reached at imran@deodaradvisors.com. 

Bulgaria: the gateway to Europe

Sofia is not well known for tourism. The capital of Bulgaria has no recognizable icons like the Eiffel Tower nor commercial attractions like Disneyland. In fact, most people will be hard pressed to place Sofia - or even Bulgaria - on a map of Europe.

Nonetheless, for any traveler proceeding to Europe from the East by land, Bulgaria is unavoidable. On their march to siege the city walls of Vienna, Ottoman Sultans proceeded westwards into Europe through Bulgaria. The road to Vienna traveled through Sofia and while borders may change, geography does not. Hence, it was through Sofia that I went westwards, deeper into Balkan Europe.

Sofia's impressive Alexander Nevsky Cathedral

The Bulgars are a predominantly Eastern Orthodox people following their own church, the Church of Bulgaria. The Church of Bulgaria is one of the oldest churches within Christianity, formally recognized by the Constantinople hierarchy in the early 900s. Not surprisingly, one of the top sights in the city is the Alexander Nevsky Cathedral, catherdal church of the Patriarch of Bulgaria.

The Nevsky Cathedral in just over 100 years old. The structure was completed in 1912. The cathedral has a capacity of 10,000 persons and is one of the largest Eastern Orthodox Cathedrals in the world. The cathedral is named after Alexander Nevsky, a Russian prince. The cathedral also honors Russian soldiers who died in the Russo-Ottoman war of 1877-78, following which Bulgaria obtained its independence after almost five centuries of Ottoman rule.

During Ottoman times Sofia had over seventy mosques but today only one remains, the Banya Bashi Mosque. The remainder were destroyed once the Ottomans were vanquished by Bulgarian nationalists. The Banya Bashi Mosque is one more marvel of Ottoman Master Architect Sinan. The mosque was completed in 1576 and, unusually, was built over natural thermal spas. The mosque serves the city's Muslim minority. Muslims comprise almost ten percent of Bulgaria's present population.

Sofia's sole surviving mosque, the Banya Bashi Mosque, completed in 1576

Outside of Sofia there is a beautiful monastery located high in the Rile mountains. The Monastery of Saint Ivan of Rila or the Rila Monastery is located approximately 120 kilometers south of Sofia and at an elevation of 1,150 meters above sea level. The monastery was founded in the tenth century and also houses a museum. A visit to the monastery makes for a pleasant day trip.

A view of the Rila Monastery as seen on the back of the One Lev banknote

Undoubtedly, Bulgaria is European. Indeed, for railway enthusiasts Sofia is also the perfect starting point for any rail journey heading west into Europe. So while Bulgaria has been part of the European Union since 2007, the nation is anything but mainstream Europe. The remnants of decades of communism and political isolation are still pervasive – though slowly disappearing - making Bulgaria an unique travel experience.

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Imran is a Singapore based Tour Guide with a special interest in arts and history. Imran has lived and worked in several countries during his past career as an international banker. He enjoys traveling, specially by train, as a way to feed his curiosity about the world and nurture his interest in photography. Imran can be contacted at imran.ahmed.sg@gmail.com.

Ataturk's withering Istanbul?

Istanbul is one of my favorite cities. I first visited Istanbul in February 2003, on the eve of the US invasion of Iraq. From 2003 onwards, I have visited Istanbul regularly.

In Istanbul, one cannot take more than a few steps without running into a historical monument or place of worship. Istanbul, after all, was the home of the Ottoman Empire – the Sublime Porte. An Empire which attempted to synthesize modernity and Islam, ultimately leading to the personality of Ataturk and ideas associated with Kemalism.

A painting of Ottoman era Istanbul. The Blue Mosque and the Hagia Sophia are visible in the background. 

For me, Turkey is Ataturk's Turkey. A nation pursuing a staunch, fascist-like, secular vision believing secularist thought is a prerequisite for modernizing society. Headscarves were not permitted in government institutions. Islamist tending politicians were persona non grata in Ankara, the nation's capital. Any deviation from Ataturk's path and the military flexes its muscles to remind society of the correct way. Remember Turkey's 'post-modern' coup and the fate of Erbekan's Islamist government in 1997?

Since 2003, Istanbul's character has changed. Along with the rest of the world, Turkey has seen a resurgence of religiosity in the post 9/11 environment. Ataturk's secular ideals have withered with time. Secularism is all but dead.

A process helped on its way by three successive governments formed by the Islamically inclined Justice and Development Party (AKP). Since the AKP's first election victory in 2002, the party swept the polls again in 2007 and most recently in 2011.

Tayyip Erdogan, in his capacity as Prime Minister from 2003-2014 and from 2014 as President, has presided over many far reaching changes in Turkish society. The headscarf debate is history. His wife – as Turkey's First Lady - adorns the headscarf at state functions. The AKP's symbolic victory in the headscarf debate underscores the increasing influence of religion in Ataturk's secular Turkey.

To the AKP's credit, Turkey has seen its status and image in the world transformed. With the largest standing army within the NATO alliance, Turkey was always an important state militarily. However, Turkey is now an economic powerhouse too. At the end of 2012, Istanbul had twenty-four billionaire residents, ranking it at number seven in the list of cities with the most billionaires. According to compiled by the CIA, Turkey's economy is the seventeenth largest in the world. It's GDP per capita on a purchasing parity basis is over USD 15,000. Turkish companies are global players with large overseas investments, particularly in neighboring Central Asian and Balkan states.

Politically, Turkey now pursues a more muscular and independent foreign policy – often bringing the country into conflict with its traditional US and NATO allies. Consider Turkey's vacillations over supporting Kurdish militias in battling extremist Islamic State fighters lodged in the Syrian city of Kobani. Or Turkey's increasingly active role in regional conflict zones such as Libya and Palestine.

Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, the founder of the modern Turkish Republic, seen in his military uniform (1918)

Perhaps all of these changes simply represent a maturing of Turkish society? Or maybe the shift towards Islam is a belated recognition of the European Union's non-acceptance of Turkey as an European state? (Turkey has virtually abandoned the formal process of becoming an EU member state.) More likely, it is a combination of several factors. Whatever the reasons, the changes are unlikely to stop me from visiting Istanbul again in the coming years – as often as I possibly can. It remains a charmingly, beautiful city with many hidden secrets I have yet to uncover!

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Imran is a Singapore based Tour Guide with a special interest in arts and history. Imran has lived and worked in several countries during his past career as an international banker. He enjoys traveling, specially by train, as a way to feed his curiosity about the world and nurture his interest in photography. Imran can be contacted at imran.ahmed.sg@gmail.com.

The Grand Moofti's (East and Central) European Rail Tour 2015

Following from my rail journey from Istanbul to London (via Bucharest, Budapest, Vienna, Munich, Cologne, Bruges) in late 2012, it was time to embark on another epic European land adventure. In 2015, my travels focus on Central and Eastern Europe, including three former Yugoslav republics.

The Sirkeji train station in Istanbul, Turkey. The starting point for Tour Europe 2015.

The 2015 itinerary – at the time of writing I am in Sarajevo – with planned mode of transport between cities is as follows:

Singapore – Istanbul (Turkey). Air.

Istanbul – Sofia (Bulgaria). Combination of bus and train.

Sofia – Belgrade (Serbia). Train.

Belgrade – Sarajevo (Bosnia). Bus.

Sarajevo – Mostar (Bosnia). Bus.

Mostar – Sarajevo (Bosnia). Train.

Sarajevo – Zagreb (Croatia). Train.

Zagreb – Budapest (Hungary). Train.

Budapest – Bratislava (Slovakia). Train.

Bratislava – Prague (Czech Republic). Train.

Prague – Munich (Germany). Train.

Munich – London (England). Train. End of journey.

London – Singapore. Air.

I will pen my thoughts as I go along. Follow my experiences on Twitter (@grandmoofti) and on this blog.

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Imran is a Singapore based Tour Guide with a special interest in arts and history. Imran has lived and worked in several countries during his past career as an international banker. He enjoys traveling, specially by train, as a way to feed his curiosity about the world and nurture his interest in photography. Imran can be contacted at imran.ahmed.sg@gmail.com.