Pakistan in 2023: optimism is hard to find

 

It's hard to be optimistic about Pakistan these days. The country's multiple crises are coming together to bring about a perfect storm. (I can't remember when the country was last in non-crisis mode?)

Credit: Unsplash - The Artist Studio

The two main political parties contending for power - Nawaz Sharif's (now Shehbaz Sharif's?) PML-N and Imran Khan's PTI - are playing a savage game of musical chairs in Islamabad and several provincial capitals. There is even less focus on governance than is usually the case.

And governance is what is required to pull Pakistan's economy back from the precipice. Ordinary Pakistanis are already struggling under the weight of 30 percent plus food price inflation (officially) pushing food insecurity to a level not seen in several decades. Moreover, electricity brownouts and gas shortages have expanded such that Islamabad seeks to implement policies to encourage reduced consumption (increasing suppy to keep pace with demand is much too difficult as it requires strategic planning). Foreign exchange is in such short supply that each day we receive news of more factories suspending production due to lack of imported raw materials. It's a mess even before one mentions the 'circular debt' plaguing the energy sector – which gets worse with each passing day.

All this while the security situation deteriorates alarmingly (let's talk some more with the Taliban?!). Afghanistan's Taliban government has reinvigorated, many would also say supported, the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) to carry out a series of high profile attacks especially in the western border province of Khyber Pakhtoonkhwa (KPK). These attacks have laid bare the state's claim that terrorism, particularly the TTP, had been defeated. No, the various groups were simply biding their time while regrouping. This time – and space - was provided to them by the recent attempt to negotiate. Releasing tens of militants from Pakistani jails by the authorities as a confidence building measure preceding the talks was simply icing on the cake.

Credit: Unsplash - Hassan Anwer

But wait, the bad news isn't finished yet. There's another open wound which has been festering for several decades and the infection looks to be spreading, i.e. the Baloch separatist movement. Despite the secular, republican nature of the Baloch insurgent movement there are whispers of collaboration between them and the revitalized religious extremists. The enemy of my enemy is my friend right?

Moreover, a nascent Sindhi nationalist movement has recently turned to violence - with the support of Baloch insurgents. Though it's a tentative, cautious shift at the moment, if a tight Sindhi-Baloch nationalist nexus is formed in future it spell more trouble (and violence) for Pakistan. Such violence, particularly if it emerges in Karachi, the country's commercial hub will further damage economic growth prospects. (Already business confidence within the city has been affected by a post-COVID resurgence in street crime.)

Unfortunately, most of these issues are systemic and cannot be wished away without sustained reform. (To be sure, having six, or was it seven, Finance Ministers in the last 4.5 years across two governments is not conducive to reform efforts!) Nonetheless, Pakistan has to start somewhere in order not to break more promises to its citizens.

Stay tuned (i.e.please follow!) for future posts in which I take a closer look at each of these subjects, including my suggestions for tackling these issues.

NB - I will be traveling to Pakistan in the next few weeks and will get a better understanding of ground realities following my visit.

Karachi: Pakistan’s orphan without a guardian

On a trip to Karachi during the summer monsoon season 2019 the Federal Government made loud promises about cleaning up Karachi (and its drains) within one week. To add substance to the claims the Frontier Works Organization (FWO) and the Pakistan Rangers, both branches of the powerful military establishment, were handed the task. The Federal Minister for Ports and Shipping was appointed to handle the task and, as with the PML-Ns ‘law and order’ clean up initiated in 2013 – the Federal Government was prepared to go it alone if the efforts were not supported by the provincial and civic authorities.

Yet another public fund (remember the Dam Fund?) was created to solicit public donations to help pay for Karachi’s cleaning. One supposes charitable funds are required for this essential civic service because not enough taxes are collected by the authorities in Karachi? Not.

The Karachi Municipal Corporation (KMC) building. The KMC is one of the several governmental agencies responsible for Karachi's current state of civic neglect. (Photo: Wikipedia)

One year later – monsoon season 2020 - Karachites are reminded they live in Pakistan's largest orphan city. City roads are streams inundated with various blends of sewage and rain water – clean drinking water is an unrealistic dream not worth mentioning.

In other words, no substantial improvements have been made during the last twelve months. Additionally, there has been no accountability at any level neither for the civic lapses nor for the millions collected in donations by the 2019 Clean Karachi campaign.

As if on cue, accusations of blame regarding inaction and lack of preparedness are being hurled. These accusations are closely followed by tall claims about immediate action including by the Prime Minister himself, i.e. political grand standing.  

While the city (MQM), provincial (PPP) and federal (PTI) governments' fight for supremacy over the goose that lays golden (revenue) eggs, ordinary Karachites continue to suffer. Karachites don't care which political party, e.g. ANP, MQM, PML-N, PPP or PTI, fixes their city. People simply want the political leadership to stop bickering and take action.

Pakistan’s leadership must ask itself if Pakistan can progress while its economic heart and largest city is mired in civic despair.

A listless Karachi places a glass ceiling on Pakistan’s development while a vibrant Karachi acts as a catalyst for national growth.

Conclusion: Karachites wait patiently for monsoon 2021 when, in all likelihood, they will again wake to urban flooding. The flooding will automatically be followed initially by finger pointing and subsequently by dramatic promises from politicians (and ‘non-political’ military men) of renewed efforts to clean Karachi. Ironically, while Karachi waits for monsoon 2021 the city will return to its usual water shortages and the water mafia.  

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Imran is a Singapore based Tour Guide with a special interest in arts and history. Imran has lived and worked in several countries during his past career as an international banker. He enjoys traveling, especially by train, as a way to feed his curiosity about the world and nurture his interest in photography. He is available on Instagram (@imranahmedsg); twitter (@grandmoofti) and can be contacted at imran.ahmed.sg@gmail.com.

Pakistan's Kashmir obsession: unhealthy and unrealistic?

As the Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan arrives in New York for the latest session of the United Nations General Assembly it's necessary for Pakistanis to ask exactly what the country can do about Indian Kashmir.

Muzaffarabad is the largest city and capital of Azad Jammu and Kashmir. It is located near the confluence of the Jhelum and Neelum Rivers and is a four hour drive from Islamabad, Pakistan's capital. (Source: Wikipedia: Obaid 747) 

The country's economic managers are walking around with a begging bowl because the country cannot pay its bills leave alone spend money on national development. The Pakistan Banao (Bachao?) Certificates launched with great fanfare early in Khan's term and designed to raise Pakistan's foreign currency reserves have done little to strengthen reserves.

The economy is in the midst of a serious downturn with no recovery in sight for at least the coming 18-24 months. Large scale manufacturing is shrinking while small and medium sized enterprises labor under the effects of increased taxation, a sharp drop in the value of the Rupee and an emasculated consumer struggling to make ends meet while losing more discretionary income with each passing day given an official inflation rate above thirteen percent.

The country is running out of water but has no money to build dams. Despite arm twisting and 'forced donations' (e.g. via each Pakistan Railways ticket sold) the Supreme Court's Dam Fund is nowhere near numbers required to seriously assist with the urgent building of dams across the country. Indeed, the much hyped Dam Fund has become a hazy memory for most and an embarrassing one for those promoting crowdfunding as an alternate means to pay for massive national infrastructural projects. 

The electricity situation is no better. Despite suffering shortages and brownouts for the last several decades, Pakistan has been unable to fix its electricity load shedding problem until today. Much of the country suffers hours without electricity daily in both Winter and Summer months. Even when electricity is available it is not stable with voltage fluctuations playing havoc with machinery; a disincentive for manufacturing concerns requiring stable, uninterrupted electricity for normal operations.

The country has no proper waste management systems. Without a drastic betterment in urban sanitation levels improvements in preventive healthcare will remain wanting. (Picking up litter from urban areas and dumping it on the outskirts of cities so it is out of sight does not constitute proper waste management.) It's not surprising Pakistan is one of the only countries where polio still afflicts children. 

The air quality in Pakistan's cities is rapidly deteriorating due to pollution. Indeed, Lahore is blanketed by haze virtually on a daily basis with air quality moving into the healthy range an exception to the daily norm. Islamabad and Karachi are not far behind. This is the air Pakistan's infants breathe daily – and there is no shortage of infants given the country's fertility rate.

Pakistan cannot provide adequate food, housing, education or medical care to the majority of Pakistanis. In many households, animals are more precious than women, who have few effective social or economic freedoms. All these problems are compounded by Pakistan's unbridled population growth with its population increasing exponentially every few decades.

So as PM Khan travels back to Pakistan in a few days on on a borrowed Saudi luxury jet he may wish to ask himself what's more important for Pakistan's two hundred million plus citizens: ratcheting up Kashmir hysteria a few more notches or implementing a national development agenda on a war footing?

Imran is a Singapore based Tour Guide with a special interest in arts and history. Imran has lived and worked in several countries during his career as an international banker. He enjoys traveling, especially by train, as a way to feed his curiosity about the world and nurture his interest in photography. He is available on twitter (@grandmoofti); Instagram(@imranahmedsg) and can be contacted at imran.ahmed.sg@gmail.com.

PTI’s Khan panders to Islamists and Mr Chief Justice I can’t hear you now?

Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehrik-Insaf (PTI) government's recent collapse in facing down Islamist radicals over the appointment of Pakistani Princeton University economist - who happens to be Qadiani - to a government advisory panel, is shameful.

Even more shameful is that Imran Khan did not use even one iota of his considerable political capital to support Atif Mian. There was no public statement from King Khan himself, only official comments by his minions.

Source: Wikipedia

Is this the Naya Pakistan for which Pakistanis voted?

Apart from the fact that the government's behavior is illegal - Pakistan's Constitution is unambiguous on the subject – it sets a dangerous precedent for the State's future. 

PTI's surrender places in doubt Khan's ability to follow through with his ambitious reform program in the face of protest. Economic reform requires tough decisions and if the government is only capable or willing to implement populist policies then whence the reform?

The incident underscores  the recent disintegration of Imran Khan's principles at the altar of political expediency – following on from his decision to appoint 'lotas' (aka electables) in a hitherto principled political party.

Undoubtedly, we cannot bury the notion of Naya Pakistan until the PTI's five year term is complete. However, the PTI has not had an auspicious start and the omens don't look good, especially for women and non-Muslim minorities.

Before one gives up all hope, perhaps one can give a shout out to the otherwise activist 'Suo Moto' Chief Justice? Yes, we appreciate your efforts in building dams Mr Chief Justice but can we request you also focus on your day job and dutifully enforce Pakistan's Constitution in Atif Mian's case?

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[i] No citizen otherwise qualified for appointment in the service of Pakistan shall be discriminated against in respect of any such appointment on the ground only of race, religion, caste, sex, residence or place of birth. Pakistan Constitution, Article 27 (1)

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Imran is a former banker and  has lived and worked in several countries during his international banking career. He enjoys traveling, especially by train, as a way to feed his curiosity about the world and nurture his interest in photography. He is available on twitter (@grandmoofti); Instagram (@imranahmedsg) and can be contacted at imran.ahmed.sg@gmail.com

Imran Khan: don’t you have a province to govern?

As a cricketer, Imran Khan was a fine leader and brought cricketing glory to Pakistan in 1992. However, even during his World Cup victory speech it was clear what Imran Khan is about – himself! Imran's victory speech ignored Pakistani fans, the nation and his teammates. It only referred to his personal obsession and his career (watch the video from one minute onward to understand why I make the claim).

As a politician, Imran Khan has fared less well. For starters, it seems Imran's ego cannot accept losing Pakistan's 2013 general elections, particularly to a 'twice tried and failed' Nawaz Sharif and the Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N). After all, Imran Khan's Pakistan's Tehrik Insaf (PTI) party promised to rid the nation of corruption in 100 days; build a cricket pitch in each district; and, most importantly, was led by the only person who knows how to fix Pakistan, i.e. Imran Khan himself.

So maybe it was Imran's ego which led to the PTI's poorly timed (Pakistan's Independence Day – really?) and unsuccessfully executed 'Long March' from Lahore to Islamabad. Once the Long March fizzled out, the Prime Minister 'wannabe' decided to take his party deeper into the political wilderness. He has called for a civil disobedience movement  against the government by demanding Pakistanis stop paying utility bills, taxes, etc (Imran Khan: Pakistan's Martin Luther King, jr. in the nation's fight against an 'illegitimate' government?!).

The Pakistan Monument located in Islamabad, the nation's Capital city

Now the PTI has asked all its Parliamentarians to resign from the National and Provincial Assemblies. But wait, there's some fine print. No Parliamentarians need to resign from the Khyberpukhtoonkhwa (KPK) Provincial Assembly! I guess the polls were only rigged in the three provinces where the PTI did not win enough seats to form a government?

Imran Khan – hit the reset button and get with the national storyline! You can still salvage the PTI and yourself from the hole you have dug over the last few weeks.

Rescind calls for civil disobedience and move away from confrontation. Instead, start delivering on election promises through the PTI managed KPK provincial government. Focus energies on constructive and useful issues, e.g. spearhead the polio immunization campaign in KPK, champion female education in a province still sceptical of its benefits, etc. There are a thousand and one things in KPK which scream for attention and political will. Voters will naturally flock to the PTI once they see KPK effectively governed by the party.

The way to winning the Pakistani people is not through confrontational politics. It is through good governance. The people of KPK gave you an opportunity to showcase your party's effectiveness in governing. Don't squander the trust of the KPK electorate.

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Imran is a business and management consultant. Through his work at Deodar Advisors and the Deodar Diagnostic, Imran improves profits of businesses operating in Singapore and the region. He can be reached at imran@deodaradvisors.com. 

Sharif’s enviable tasks for Pakistan

With Pakistan's elections out of the way, Pakistanis are eagerly anticipating two things sorely missed during the last five years of democracy: governance and leadership.

One would expect democracy – with its large quotient of accountability to the people – will have provided large doses of both governance and leadership to Pakistan.  Not so. Since the removal of President Musharraf's regime, the only aspect of democracy visible to most Pakistanis has been an unmistakable slide towards anarchy.

The military, still smarting from the ignominies associated with the final few years of Musharraf's rule, stayed away from active politics. Moreover, the military is busy fighting Taliban militants bent on undermining the Pakistani state. It was left to an activist judiciary to try and maintain some semblance of control over an inept civilian government. The judiciary's controversial efforts unseated Prime Minister Gilani but failed to galvanize the government to implement any meaningful policy reforms.

Imran Khan, the white knight ever-ready to save Pakistan, made some electoral inroads in Election 2013. Khan's party was helped by the 'protest vote' against Pakistan's two mainstream political parties (vehicles for Zaradari and Sharif). Having won the most seats in the Khyberpukhtoonkhwa (KPK) provincial assembly, Khan has the opportunity to prove himself by forming the KPK government. Voters will be watching closely to see how his party fares in the rough and tumble of Pakistani politics.  

Nonetheless, Nawaz Sharif won a handsome victory in Election 2013. People expect him to put his mandate to good use. Top of the nation's wish list are security and reliable electricity. Sharif has the reputation of being pro-business. Surely, a businessperson understands that electricity is a prerequisite for a modern economy!

Additionally, people outside of Sharif's stronghold of Punjab province will scrutinize his focus on Pakistan's three smaller provinces. Will he abandon the likes of Karachi, rural Sindh, KPK and Balochistan or will the federal government help to provincial governments' resolve pressing issues? If Sharif acts as the Prime Minister of Punjab, the strategic repercussions for the federation may be severe. Already, separatist forces are clearly at work in Balochistan. It will not take much for disgruntled elements to undermine the federation in the other provinces.

Zardari's government chose to compromise national interests in favor of competing personal interests. Sure, Pakistanis can vote out Sharif's government in five years if his party too fails the country. However, the country is fast running out of time; and five years is a long time in today's wired age.

Pakistan rightly expect Sharif's incoming regime to make progress in stemming the country's decline. Pakistanis may not tolerate another five years of supporting a political elite which does no more than attend the National Assembly a few times a year, while keeping themselves isolated from national consciousness behind multiple layers of state sponsored security.

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Imran is a business and management consultant. Through his work at Deodar Advisors and the Deodar Diagnostic, Imran improves profits of businesses operating in Singapore and the region. He can be reached at imran@deodaradvisors.com. 

Pakistan's other Imran and its chattering classes

Since the advent of Zardari's Pakistan People's Party (PPP) led government in 2008, governance in Pakistan has all but disappeared. Some may refer to the deterioration as 'creative chaos' but in reality the decline is simply a manifestation of an incompetent government with a corrupt leadership comprising of politicians who have no desire to address any national issues. Their only wish being to retain the privileges of power.

 

 

One beneficiary of the PPP's incompetent government is Pakistan's former cricket star, Imran Khan.

After spending years in the political wilderness, Khan's party the Tehreek Insaf (PTI) is knocking on the doors of Pakistan's political mainstream. For a politician who has yet to win an elections in his own parliamentary constituency, the PTI's progress is no small achievement.

The ordinary Pakistani voters' disillusionment with the country's two main established political parties, the PPP and Nawaz Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League-N, is a major contributing factor to the PTI's popularity.

A vote for PTI is a protest vote. A desperate electorate's plea for help. An electorate repeatedly abandoned and deceived by established politicians. Significantly, Pakistan's protest voters have not turned to Islamic parties, primarily because the orthodox religious establishment is a pillar for the existing decayed political structure.

Khan's success with the PTI bodes well for the future of Pakistani politics.

The party has not shied away from public discussion about difficult political or economic issues. Consequently, not only has public awareness about important national issues increased but, most importantly, the standards for policy debate have improved. Pakistan's vibrant television media - always looking for the next sensational news item - has latched onto the PTI's agenda as a tool to take the establishment to task.

Moreover, the PTI has struck a chord with Pakistan's normally apathetic youth. Suddenly, politics is no longer a dirty and dangerous pastime, but a national obligation. The PTI's 'tsunami' of change is predicated upon politicizing large numbers of young voters.

The PTI has also galvanized educated professionals into action. Many professionals, alarmed at the prospect of retiring in a 'Failed State,' have moved beyond heated debate during whiskey drinking sessions and entered the political arena. Whether such 'technocrats' are merely PR 'talking heads' or they will exercise significant policy making influence within the party remains to be seen.

The Minar-e-Pakistan: erected on the site where the Pakistan Resolution was passed in Lahore in 1940

To most Pakistanis, Imran Khan is a cricketer who also built the Shaukat Khanum Memorial Cancer Hospital and Research Centre. Khan was a playboy who turned into a pseudo-mullah, an anglophile become 'desi.' For Pakistani voters, the PTI may be a naive, confused political party but it does hold out hope for positive change for a people who deserve better than criminals and gangsters walking the corridors of power.

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Imran is a business and management consultant. Through his work at Deodar Advisors and the Deodar Diagnostic, Imran improves profits of businesses operating in Singapore and the region. He can be reached at imran@deodaradvisors.com.