Radicalizing ASEAN's Muslims: ASEAN's Myanmar problem

It is a sad day when in 2017 a Nobel Peace Prize winner presides over a process which the United Nations refers to as ethnic cleansing. Unfortunately, there is no doubting the harsh reality of the Myanmar government's actions in Rakhine province. They occur daily, within Singapore's neighborhood and by a fellow ASEAN member state.

Singapore continues to struggles with its response to Myanmar's attrocious behavior. Certainly, the 'ASEAN Way' suggests there should be no interference in the domestic affairs of another ASEAN member state. This is a wise principle. Until recently, the axiom has served ASEAN well and allowed the organization to grow roots.

An old photograph of a mosque in Akyab. Akyan is now known as Sittwe and is the capital of Myanmar's Rakhine province. (Source: Wikipedia)

However, the humanitarian crisis in Myanmar's western Rakhine province no longer an internal matter. It has transformed into a regional crisis. The events unfolding in Myanmar's Rakhine state have grave security implications for Singapore, Malaysia and other ASEAN states.

Consequently, the time has come for Singapore and ASEAN to take a bolder stand in its relationship with Myanmar.

ASEAN is no stranger to violence perpetrated by Islamic extremists. Indonesia's off and on problem with such violence threatens to hit the headlines on any given day. Indeed, the region's traditionally 'non-Arab' strand of Islam has weakened enough to make the threat of Islamist violence in Malaysia so pervasive that Malaysian authorities arrest potential 'Jihadis' with alarming regularity. Even at the fringe of the Malay world in southern Thailand, religious-ethnic violence is a disturbingly routine affair.

Nonetheless, it is the Philippines which takes the (Islamic extremist) crown. Despite a 'strongman' leader the country faces an Iraq-like scenario with militants apparently loyal to Islamic State (ISIS) having taken over Marawi - a mid-size city - and held it captive for the previous four months. The siege to recapture Marawi is ongoing at the time of writing.

A photo dating from British colonial days of a mosque in Akyab (now Sittwe) the capital of Myanmar's Rakhine province. (Source: Wikipedia)

The events in Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Myanmar may seem far removed from the Singapore's CCTV flooded sterile streets. However, in today's global village they can neve be far from Singapore's shores. These Islamic extremists feed a deviant belief structure which menacingly lurks below Singapore's ostensibly calm surface. 

Starting with the 2001 plot to bomb Yishun subway station stretching to the recent arrests of an Islamic State radicalized female infant care giver and two auxiliary police officers Singapore is not immune to Islamic extremism. On the contrary, based on the number of arrests, the threat to Singapore from Islamic extremists has increased in recent years.

The Rohingya Crisis in Myanmar feed a sense of injustice within Singapore (and the region's) Muslim community. Furthermore, the Singapore government's lack of condemnation of the Myanmar government's brutal behaviour risks alienating Muslims from Singapore's Islamic establishment. Singapore may be one of the largest foreign investors in Myanmar hoping for the crisis to miraculously disappear; but Singapore ignores the Rohingya crisis at its own peril.

Imran is an adventurer, blogger, consultant, guide, photographer, speaker, traveler and a banker in his previous life. At the time of writing, Imran is living in Rashidabad until December 2017 while a volunteer at the SST Public School. He is available on twitter (@grandmoofti); Instagram (@imranahmedsg) and can be contacted at imran.ahmed.sg@gmail.com.

Pakistan's Peshawar: Gandharan relics, warriors and food all wrapped in Pashtun hospitality!

In only a few days Peshawar and its people have won me over! The City of Flowers history, tradition and warm people have more than compensated for the awful dark skies and rain which welcomed me to the provincial capital earlier this week.

Street side stall holder proudly displays his selection of food. Peshawar's food, especially kababs, is divine 

During the last few years, Peshawar has disappeared from the radar of most travelers, Pakistani and international alike. The Taliban Trail of Terror has replaced the Hippie Trail. Still, in the intervening years the city seems to have lost none of its charm. (I must confess my last visit to Peshawar was at least twenty years ago – so long that I don't even remember the exact year!)

For those interested in history and religion, the Peshawar Museum hosts the world's largest collection of artifacts from the Gandharan civilization, which flourished for almost one thousand years, c. 1500 to 500 BC. Gandhara was an ancient kingdom centered around the regions of modern day Peshawar and the Swat Valley. The Gandhara Kingdom was a center of Buddhism, Hinduism and Greco-Buddhism. Greco-Buddhism is “the cultural syncretism between Hellenistic culture and Buddhism, which developed between the 4th century BCE and the 5th century CE.” (Source: Wikipedia)

The entrance to the Peshawar Museum, which houses the world's largest collection of Gandharan artifacts

Other aspects of Peshawar's history can be found in the Storytellers Bazaar or the Qissa Khawani Bazaar. The bazaar dates back at least two thousand years. More recently, in 1930 the Bazaar was the site of a massacre by British colonial authorities of unarmed civilians agitating for independence against British rule.

The imposing Bala Hissar Fort, which sits regally atop a hill, symbolizes the city's strategic and military importance for invaders and defenders as the gateway to India (through the fabled Khyber Pass). It is believed some sort of a fortification has stood on the elevated site since the seventh century. The present structure, used as the Headquarters for the Pakistan's paramilitary Frontier Corps since 1949, was built in the 1830s by the then Sikh rulers of Peshawar.

Peshawar will be done a great injustice if I don't mention the great 'frontier' food found in every nook and cranny of this city. Simply put, anyone leaving Peshawar without trying local barbecue specialties like chapli kababs, seekh kabas or Kabuli pulao cannot claim to have visited Peshawar! Stay away from the fancy restaurants, instead make a beeline for the 'hole in the wall' cafes sprinkled across the city.

Kababs being marinated and barbecued / cooked on coal at a streetside cafe

Perhaps more than the rest of Pakistan, Peshawar has suffered tremendously due to violence perpetrated by Islamic extremists. Nonetheless, Peshawar is a city like no other. A city of warriors, food and people with big hearts. Not surprisingly, despite the recent ravages of terror, the city's soul remains intact. That soul will surely touch any visitor to the ancient Gandharan city of Purushapura (aka Peshawar). 

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Imran is a business and management consultant. Through his work at Deodar Advisors and the Deodar Diagnostic, Imran improves profits of businesses operating in Singapore and the region. He can be reached at imran@deodaradvisors.com.

Pakistan's bearded brigade, bombs and cricket

Pakistan's Bearded Brigade, as represented by the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), recently lost their best shot at establishing a new foothold in the state's corridors of power. By shunning the opportunity to negotiate with Pakistan's elected government by indulging in non-stop violence during the talks, the mullahs have further alienated popular opinion away from the Taliban. The Taliban will never find a negotiating partner as willing to make 'Islamist' concessions as Sharif!

The battle between one set of Islamic Holy Warriors (Pakistan Army)
and another set of self-proclaimed Islamic warriors (the Tehrik-e-Taliban) continues 

Nawaz Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League party, which won the most seats in Pakistan's May 2013 general elections, is well known to have Islamist ideological tendencies. In May 1991, during one of Sharif's earlier (disastrous) tenures as Prime Minister, he tried to enforce a Sharia Bill in order to impose a version of Islamic law in the country. Sharif's second tenure in 1998 saw him nominate former Justice Rafiq Tarrar, as President of the Republic. Tarar's nomination as head of state revealed  Sharif's  politico-religious underpinnings.

The recent botched negotiations between the government and the mullahs underscore some realities within the Pakistani political landscape.

1.   Much like Al-Qaeeda, its ideological cousin, the TTP is not a unified, monolithic entity. Instead, the TTP is a loose coalition of forces which either oppose the legitimacy of the Pakistani government and / or desire the enforcement of a strict version of Sunni Islamic law across the country. Hence, the TTP's 'leadership' exercises limited control over the various militant factions which fall under its umbrella.

2.   The Pakistani state, at least in its present format, and the TTP cannot coexist. Several of the TTP's fundamental demands fly in the face of the (already Islamic!) Pakistani Constitution, including curbing women's rights and other basic freedoms.

3.   Despite being religiously conservative, Pakistani Muslims are unable and unwilling to wholeheartedly accept Salafi Islam. Several influences, such as Barelvi thought, Sufi tendencies, inculcation of Hindu practices / beliefs into local culture, differentiate Pakistanis from Saudi religious reactionaries. Not to mention the considerable influence of Pakistan's combined 25-30 percent Shia and non-Muslim minority population. Importantly, the Shia minority is prominently represented within the country's armed forces.

Now that talks between the Taliban and the Pakistani government have broken down, one hopes the authorities will again get serious in battling the militants. The recent violence inflicted by the TTP and its partners on Pakistan's security forces and civilians signals the lack of intent on the TTP's part to compromise. Frankly, one hopes there is also no desire by the authorities to compromise the personal freedoms of Pakistanis.

After all, can a nation obsessed with cricket ever accept a Taliban leadership which has unreservedly expressed its abhorrence for the nation's one unifying force! "These [the government] secular people want to distance our youth from jihad and Islamic teachings through cricket. We are strongly against cricket and dislike it."

Source: Taliban refuse Pakistani minister's cricket match peace offer. February 25, 2014. AFP. Emphasis added by author.

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Imran is a business and management consultant. Through his work at Deodar Advisors and the Deodar Diagnostic, Imran improves profits of regional businesses. He can be reached at imran@deodaradvisors.com. 

Reflections from Pakistan XII: Malala’s Swat Valley

Until a few years ago, Pakistan's Swat Valley was a serene, beautiful region known only to a handful of foreign and Pakistani domestic tourists. All that changed with the gradual infiltration of the valley by Taliban extremists during the 2000s. In fact, by 2006 the Pakistani state had lost control of most of the valley. The Pakistani state was left protecting Buddhist relics in the Swat Museum and a few other isolated pockets of authority, mostly in the form of minor paramilitary bases.

However, with the gradual Taliban takeover of the valley, alarm bells rang in Islamabad. Islamabad, Pakistan's capital, is approximately 250 kilometres and a four hours drive from the Swat's largest town, Mingora. (As the crow flies, the distance between the two cities is approximately 135 kilometers.)

Additionally, Swat is part of Pakistan 'proper,' civil courts, Constitution and all. The Swat Valley is not part of Pakistan's Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). There is no comparison between Swat and South Waziristan.

Pakistani soldiers raise the Pakistan flag at the Baine Baba Ziarat, the highest point in the Swat Valley located at a height of approximately 2,130 meters 

Initially uncertain about how to respond to the Taliban's encroachment on Pakistani territory, the state marshalled its forces and acted in 2009. Taking advantage of an unprecedented act of 'Islamic' justice – the whipping of a teenage girl by extremists in a public square – the government lined up public opinion behind a massive military offensive intended to eject Islamic militants from the Swat Valley.

Following bloody street battles and hand to hand combat, the military emerged victorious and declared victory a few months after Operation Rah-e-Rast began in May 2009. The operation came with a heavy price tag: millions of Swatis became temporarily homeless and street fighting had destroyed much physical infrastructure in the valley.

As Malala's optimism testifies, the war was worth the cost. The Swat Valley is open for tourism again. As a visitor to the Swat Valley myself late last year, I bear witness to the Valley's beauty and also its return to normalcy.

Surely, isolated (and unacceptable) acts of violence still occur across the Valley. However, the Taliban has been driven out. Girl schools are open. Women walk the streets alone – subject to 'pre-Taliban' social constraints imposed by the traditionally conservative Pashtun culture. Swat's residents radiate hope and happiness; more so than most other parts of Pakistan. Electricity shortages mean nothing to Swat's residents, they are happy simply to breathe freely again.

Most importantly, an unambiguous and defiant message has been delivered to the Pakistani Taliban by the Pakistani state and people: there is a line in the sand beyond which Islamist encroachment onto the country's 'mainland' will not be tolerated.

One may find many reasons to criticize the Pakistan army, beginning with General Zia's disastrous 'Islamization' process in the 1980s. However, any visitor (or resident) to the Swat Valley can do nothing but praise the Pakistani military. The army has brought order back to the valley – restoring hope and sanity in the process. If Pakistan has only one success story from its war against the Taliban, the Swat Valley has to be it.

View a small selection of my photos from the Swat Valley here.

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Imran is a business and management consultant. Through his work at Deodar Advisors and the Deodar Diagnostic, Imran improves profits of businesses operating in Singapore and the region. He can be reached at imran@deodaradvisors.com. 

Sharif’s enviable tasks for Pakistan

With Pakistan's elections out of the way, Pakistanis are eagerly anticipating two things sorely missed during the last five years of democracy: governance and leadership.

One would expect democracy – with its large quotient of accountability to the people – will have provided large doses of both governance and leadership to Pakistan.  Not so. Since the removal of President Musharraf's regime, the only aspect of democracy visible to most Pakistanis has been an unmistakable slide towards anarchy.

The military, still smarting from the ignominies associated with the final few years of Musharraf's rule, stayed away from active politics. Moreover, the military is busy fighting Taliban militants bent on undermining the Pakistani state. It was left to an activist judiciary to try and maintain some semblance of control over an inept civilian government. The judiciary's controversial efforts unseated Prime Minister Gilani but failed to galvanize the government to implement any meaningful policy reforms.

Imran Khan, the white knight ever-ready to save Pakistan, made some electoral inroads in Election 2013. Khan's party was helped by the 'protest vote' against Pakistan's two mainstream political parties (vehicles for Zaradari and Sharif). Having won the most seats in the Khyberpukhtoonkhwa (KPK) provincial assembly, Khan has the opportunity to prove himself by forming the KPK government. Voters will be watching closely to see how his party fares in the rough and tumble of Pakistani politics.  

Nonetheless, Nawaz Sharif won a handsome victory in Election 2013. People expect him to put his mandate to good use. Top of the nation's wish list are security and reliable electricity. Sharif has the reputation of being pro-business. Surely, a businessperson understands that electricity is a prerequisite for a modern economy!

Additionally, people outside of Sharif's stronghold of Punjab province will scrutinize his focus on Pakistan's three smaller provinces. Will he abandon the likes of Karachi, rural Sindh, KPK and Balochistan or will the federal government help to provincial governments' resolve pressing issues? If Sharif acts as the Prime Minister of Punjab, the strategic repercussions for the federation may be severe. Already, separatist forces are clearly at work in Balochistan. It will not take much for disgruntled elements to undermine the federation in the other provinces.

Zardari's government chose to compromise national interests in favor of competing personal interests. Sure, Pakistanis can vote out Sharif's government in five years if his party too fails the country. However, the country is fast running out of time; and five years is a long time in today's wired age.

Pakistan rightly expect Sharif's incoming regime to make progress in stemming the country's decline. Pakistanis may not tolerate another five years of supporting a political elite which does no more than attend the National Assembly a few times a year, while keeping themselves isolated from national consciousness behind multiple layers of state sponsored security.

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Imran is a business and management consultant. Through his work at Deodar Advisors and the Deodar Diagnostic, Imran improves profits of businesses operating in Singapore and the region. He can be reached at imran@deodaradvisors.com. 

US occupies Pakistan’s Miran Shah in effort to dismantle Haqqani group

The US has finally acted. Miran Shah, headquarters of the Taliban's Haqqani group, is now under US occupation. The American flag flutters at a temporary US base in the North Waziristan town.

Emboldened by its successful 'intervention' to kill Bin Laden, the US has decided 'enough is enough.' No more threats or cajoling by US Central Command, ISAF, Panetta or any other high ranking US official.

April 22 early morning, soldiers from the US 101 Airborne were inserted into Miran Shah with orders to secure the city center until reinforcements from the neighbouring Afghan town of Khost arrive and secure the Khost – Miran Shah main road. It is understood that up to 1,500 US soldiers will ultimately be based in Miran Shah, with most arriving from Afghanistan within the next three days.

An aerial shot of the Pakistani town of Miran Shah, North Waziristan

An unnamed source in the Department of Defense said, "This is not a temporary move. Following recent high profile attacks on Kabul it became essential for ISAF to secure a forward base and deny the outlawed Haqqani group operating space and flexibility."

US troops have already begun repairing an old World War Two British airfield so as to permit C-17 transport planes to use the facility. A fort occupying the town's high ground and manned by several hundred Pakistani Frontier Constabulary paramilitary troops has been left untouched.
Despite the incursion, US officials are hoping the Pakistani reaction will be tempered. "US troops have strict orders not to engage Pakistani security personnel in fire fights. Efforts for a commanders meeting between the two sides are on. We hope the Pakistanis understand this is not a move against Pakistan but against terrorism – our joint enemy."

The US appeal for rationality will likely fall on deaf ears in Pakistan.

The recent Bin Laden raid on Abbotabad, the 2010 slaying of several civilians by a CIA operative in Lahore and frequent US drone strikes in the tribal areas have soured Pakistan - US ties almost beyond repair. Anti-Americanism runs higher than at virtually any time in the last two decades – and this is in a country which burnt down the US Embassy in 1979.

It is yet unclear how Pakistan's security establishment will react to the US provocation. Sunday is a holiday in Pakistan. Most in the nation's capital Islamabad are still unaware of the US incursion.

However, it is sure to provide more ammunition to Islamists within and outside the military establishment.

A map of Pakistan's Federally Administered Tribal Areas, including the location of Miran Shah

US officials remain vague on their response if Pakistan's military starts covertly supporting armed anti-US lashkars (tribal militias) opposed to the expansion of the US presence from Afghanistan to Pakistan.

However, the US does seem to have prepared a diplomatic strategy to seize the initiative from Pakistan.

According to a confidential briefing, the State Department has agreed to support Afghanistan's contention that the Durand Line drawn in the 1890s is not an international border between the two nations. Additionally, Pakistani diplomats will be told in no uncertain terms that the US will support Baloch nationalist efforts for an independent state if 'push comes to shove.'

When asked about the US move, Pakistani security analyst Mian Iqbal told TGMS, "Undoubtedly, Obama is playing to his domestic gallery with US presidential elections around the corner. However, for Pakistan this is a disaster. At best, the country will erupt into violence for months, if not years. At worst, this is the beginning of end of Pakistan as we know it today. The Pakistani state, including the military, does not have the capacity to control the situation anymore. The world must be prepared for a manifold increase in global Islamic terrorism – it is the only weapon left for Pakistanis to salvage their tattered self-respect."

One hopes that US military strategists have evaluated all possible outcomes of the new, radical US strategy to quell violence in Afghanistan. Otherwise, it may just be further military escalation of an already unwinnable war.

*IMPORTANT NOTE TO READERS*

Alright, so the events described above did not occur, at least not yet. It describes a fictional (though entirely possible) scenario devised by the Grand Moofti.

Pakistan is fast moving into the global 'doghouse' – the same place the country found itself during its last decade of democracy: the 1990s. In such an environment, anything is possible and one cannot count on rationality from any actors, including the US.

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Imran is a business and management consultant. Through his work at Deodar Advisors, Imran improves the profitability of businesses operating in Singapore and the region. He can be reached at imran@deodaradvisors.com.