Pakistan in 2023: optimism is hard to find

 

It's hard to be optimistic about Pakistan these days. The country's multiple crises are coming together to bring about a perfect storm. (I can't remember when the country was last in non-crisis mode?)

Credit: Unsplash - The Artist Studio

The two main political parties contending for power - Nawaz Sharif's (now Shehbaz Sharif's?) PML-N and Imran Khan's PTI - are playing a savage game of musical chairs in Islamabad and several provincial capitals. There is even less focus on governance than is usually the case.

And governance is what is required to pull Pakistan's economy back from the precipice. Ordinary Pakistanis are already struggling under the weight of 30 percent plus food price inflation (officially) pushing food insecurity to a level not seen in several decades. Moreover, electricity brownouts and gas shortages have expanded such that Islamabad seeks to implement policies to encourage reduced consumption (increasing suppy to keep pace with demand is much too difficult as it requires strategic planning). Foreign exchange is in such short supply that each day we receive news of more factories suspending production due to lack of imported raw materials. It's a mess even before one mentions the 'circular debt' plaguing the energy sector – which gets worse with each passing day.

All this while the security situation deteriorates alarmingly (let's talk some more with the Taliban?!). Afghanistan's Taliban government has reinvigorated, many would also say supported, the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) to carry out a series of high profile attacks especially in the western border province of Khyber Pakhtoonkhwa (KPK). These attacks have laid bare the state's claim that terrorism, particularly the TTP, had been defeated. No, the various groups were simply biding their time while regrouping. This time – and space - was provided to them by the recent attempt to negotiate. Releasing tens of militants from Pakistani jails by the authorities as a confidence building measure preceding the talks was simply icing on the cake.

Credit: Unsplash - Hassan Anwer

But wait, the bad news isn't finished yet. There's another open wound which has been festering for several decades and the infection looks to be spreading, i.e. the Baloch separatist movement. Despite the secular, republican nature of the Baloch insurgent movement there are whispers of collaboration between them and the revitalized religious extremists. The enemy of my enemy is my friend right?

Moreover, a nascent Sindhi nationalist movement has recently turned to violence - with the support of Baloch insurgents. Though it's a tentative, cautious shift at the moment, if a tight Sindhi-Baloch nationalist nexus is formed in future it spell more trouble (and violence) for Pakistan. Such violence, particularly if it emerges in Karachi, the country's commercial hub will further damage economic growth prospects. (Already business confidence within the city has been affected by a post-COVID resurgence in street crime.)

Unfortunately, most of these issues are systemic and cannot be wished away without sustained reform. (To be sure, having six, or was it seven, Finance Ministers in the last 4.5 years across two governments is not conducive to reform efforts!) Nonetheless, Pakistan has to start somewhere in order not to break more promises to its citizens.

Stay tuned (i.e.please follow!) for future posts in which I take a closer look at each of these subjects, including my suggestions for tackling these issues.

NB - I will be traveling to Pakistan in the next few weeks and will get a better understanding of ground realities following my visit.

Imran Khan: don’t you have a province to govern?

As a cricketer, Imran Khan was a fine leader and brought cricketing glory to Pakistan in 1992. However, even during his World Cup victory speech it was clear what Imran Khan is about – himself! Imran's victory speech ignored Pakistani fans, the nation and his teammates. It only referred to his personal obsession and his career (watch the video from one minute onward to understand why I make the claim).

As a politician, Imran Khan has fared less well. For starters, it seems Imran's ego cannot accept losing Pakistan's 2013 general elections, particularly to a 'twice tried and failed' Nawaz Sharif and the Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N). After all, Imran Khan's Pakistan's Tehrik Insaf (PTI) party promised to rid the nation of corruption in 100 days; build a cricket pitch in each district; and, most importantly, was led by the only person who knows how to fix Pakistan, i.e. Imran Khan himself.

So maybe it was Imran's ego which led to the PTI's poorly timed (Pakistan's Independence Day – really?) and unsuccessfully executed 'Long March' from Lahore to Islamabad. Once the Long March fizzled out, the Prime Minister 'wannabe' decided to take his party deeper into the political wilderness. He has called for a civil disobedience movement  against the government by demanding Pakistanis stop paying utility bills, taxes, etc (Imran Khan: Pakistan's Martin Luther King, jr. in the nation's fight against an 'illegitimate' government?!).

The Pakistan Monument located in Islamabad, the nation's Capital city

Now the PTI has asked all its Parliamentarians to resign from the National and Provincial Assemblies. But wait, there's some fine print. No Parliamentarians need to resign from the Khyberpukhtoonkhwa (KPK) Provincial Assembly! I guess the polls were only rigged in the three provinces where the PTI did not win enough seats to form a government?

Imran Khan – hit the reset button and get with the national storyline! You can still salvage the PTI and yourself from the hole you have dug over the last few weeks.

Rescind calls for civil disobedience and move away from confrontation. Instead, start delivering on election promises through the PTI managed KPK provincial government. Focus energies on constructive and useful issues, e.g. spearhead the polio immunization campaign in KPK, champion female education in a province still sceptical of its benefits, etc. There are a thousand and one things in KPK which scream for attention and political will. Voters will naturally flock to the PTI once they see KPK effectively governed by the party.

The way to winning the Pakistani people is not through confrontational politics. It is through good governance. The people of KPK gave you an opportunity to showcase your party's effectiveness in governing. Don't squander the trust of the KPK electorate.

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Imran is a business and management consultant. Through his work at Deodar Advisors and the Deodar Diagnostic, Imran improves profits of businesses operating in Singapore and the region. He can be reached at imran@deodaradvisors.com. 

Pakistan's bearded brigade, bombs and cricket

Pakistan's Bearded Brigade, as represented by the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), recently lost their best shot at establishing a new foothold in the state's corridors of power. By shunning the opportunity to negotiate with Pakistan's elected government by indulging in non-stop violence during the talks, the mullahs have further alienated popular opinion away from the Taliban. The Taliban will never find a negotiating partner as willing to make 'Islamist' concessions as Sharif!

The battle between one set of Islamic Holy Warriors (Pakistan Army)
and another set of self-proclaimed Islamic warriors (the Tehrik-e-Taliban) continues 

Nawaz Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League party, which won the most seats in Pakistan's May 2013 general elections, is well known to have Islamist ideological tendencies. In May 1991, during one of Sharif's earlier (disastrous) tenures as Prime Minister, he tried to enforce a Sharia Bill in order to impose a version of Islamic law in the country. Sharif's second tenure in 1998 saw him nominate former Justice Rafiq Tarrar, as President of the Republic. Tarar's nomination as head of state revealed  Sharif's  politico-religious underpinnings.

The recent botched negotiations between the government and the mullahs underscore some realities within the Pakistani political landscape.

1.   Much like Al-Qaeeda, its ideological cousin, the TTP is not a unified, monolithic entity. Instead, the TTP is a loose coalition of forces which either oppose the legitimacy of the Pakistani government and / or desire the enforcement of a strict version of Sunni Islamic law across the country. Hence, the TTP's 'leadership' exercises limited control over the various militant factions which fall under its umbrella.

2.   The Pakistani state, at least in its present format, and the TTP cannot coexist. Several of the TTP's fundamental demands fly in the face of the (already Islamic!) Pakistani Constitution, including curbing women's rights and other basic freedoms.

3.   Despite being religiously conservative, Pakistani Muslims are unable and unwilling to wholeheartedly accept Salafi Islam. Several influences, such as Barelvi thought, Sufi tendencies, inculcation of Hindu practices / beliefs into local culture, differentiate Pakistanis from Saudi religious reactionaries. Not to mention the considerable influence of Pakistan's combined 25-30 percent Shia and non-Muslim minority population. Importantly, the Shia minority is prominently represented within the country's armed forces.

Now that talks between the Taliban and the Pakistani government have broken down, one hopes the authorities will again get serious in battling the militants. The recent violence inflicted by the TTP and its partners on Pakistan's security forces and civilians signals the lack of intent on the TTP's part to compromise. Frankly, one hopes there is also no desire by the authorities to compromise the personal freedoms of Pakistanis.

After all, can a nation obsessed with cricket ever accept a Taliban leadership which has unreservedly expressed its abhorrence for the nation's one unifying force! "These [the government] secular people want to distance our youth from jihad and Islamic teachings through cricket. We are strongly against cricket and dislike it."

Source: Taliban refuse Pakistani minister's cricket match peace offer. February 25, 2014. AFP. Emphasis added by author.

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Imran is a business and management consultant. Through his work at Deodar Advisors and the Deodar Diagnostic, Imran improves profits of regional businesses. He can be reached at imran@deodaradvisors.com. 

Reflections from Pakistan XI: Islamabad is a foreign city

Islamabad is Pakistan's custom built capital. A city built on an empty piece of land during the 1960s. Until recently, Pakistanis were not 'from' Islamabad – they just happened to live in Islamabad. (Until recently, only bureaucrats and diplomats lived in Islamabad.) However, today a new generation of 'Islamabadis,' with their own culture and lifestyle has emerged.

Islamabad's location on the Potohar Plateau surrounded by the Margalla Hills was no accident. Despite sitting astride an earthquake fault line, President Ayub Khan selected the location due to its proximity with Rawalpindi, Lahore and Peshawar. As a bonus, nearby hill stations like Murree, standing at a comfortable 2,300 meters above sea level, are just about one hour drive north. From the capital, Lahore is several hours drive south while Peshawar is a road journey of a couple of hours northwest.

Daman-e-Koh park in the Margalla Hills which surround Islamabad

Islamabad is home to Pakistan's Parliament and civil bureaucratic leadership. The country's lawmakers and senior mandarins live in nice, leafy neighbourhoods dotted across the city's 900 square kilometer area. Despite being the country's capital, many Pakistanis feel Islamabad is a foreign city; not a part of the 'real' Pakistan. It is easy to understand why such a belief is so widespread.

Islamabad has a sense of order and logic absent from Pakistan's other cities. The 'grid' design of Islamabad city streets helps reinforce the perception of order. In stark contrast, Pakistan's other cities have developed with little or no urban planning. Cities like Karachi and Lahore are breaking under the weight of the country's ever expanding population.

Islamabad's order is far removed from the problems of 'real' Pakistan. Thus, by residing in Islamabad, Pakistani lawmakers and senior mandarins have little practical understanding of the life experienced by most Pakistanis.

Given Pakistan's multitude of serious problems, it is easy to understand why the Pakistani political elite might wish to insulate itself from the rest of the nation by sticking its head inside Islamabad's hallowed ground.

Unfortunately, Pakistan's problems are compounding to the extent that Islamabadis cannot hide from them any longer. Islamabad has electricity rationing like the rest of the country. Extremist mullahs make noise in Islamabad – even violently such as during the 2007 Lal Masjid incident, 2008 attack on Islamabad's Marriott Hotel, or most recently during protests in September 2012 against an allegedly blasphemous film – as in the rest of the country. Other ills plaguing Pakistan, including crime, inflation and unemployment, ultimately find themselves seeping through Islamabad's sterilized door.

Certainly, Islamabad is a nice showcase for Pakistan. But Islamabad is a foreign country. Pakistanis can only hope Prime Minister designate Nawaz Sharif's government will remember there is more to Pakistan than Islamabad (and Lahore).

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Imran is a business and management consultant. Through his work at Deodar Advisors and the Deodar Diagnostic, Imran improves profits of businesses operating in Singapore and the region. He can be reached at imran@deodaradvisors.com. 

Sharif’s enviable tasks for Pakistan

With Pakistan's elections out of the way, Pakistanis are eagerly anticipating two things sorely missed during the last five years of democracy: governance and leadership.

One would expect democracy – with its large quotient of accountability to the people – will have provided large doses of both governance and leadership to Pakistan.  Not so. Since the removal of President Musharraf's regime, the only aspect of democracy visible to most Pakistanis has been an unmistakable slide towards anarchy.

The military, still smarting from the ignominies associated with the final few years of Musharraf's rule, stayed away from active politics. Moreover, the military is busy fighting Taliban militants bent on undermining the Pakistani state. It was left to an activist judiciary to try and maintain some semblance of control over an inept civilian government. The judiciary's controversial efforts unseated Prime Minister Gilani but failed to galvanize the government to implement any meaningful policy reforms.

Imran Khan, the white knight ever-ready to save Pakistan, made some electoral inroads in Election 2013. Khan's party was helped by the 'protest vote' against Pakistan's two mainstream political parties (vehicles for Zaradari and Sharif). Having won the most seats in the Khyberpukhtoonkhwa (KPK) provincial assembly, Khan has the opportunity to prove himself by forming the KPK government. Voters will be watching closely to see how his party fares in the rough and tumble of Pakistani politics.  

Nonetheless, Nawaz Sharif won a handsome victory in Election 2013. People expect him to put his mandate to good use. Top of the nation's wish list are security and reliable electricity. Sharif has the reputation of being pro-business. Surely, a businessperson understands that electricity is a prerequisite for a modern economy!

Additionally, people outside of Sharif's stronghold of Punjab province will scrutinize his focus on Pakistan's three smaller provinces. Will he abandon the likes of Karachi, rural Sindh, KPK and Balochistan or will the federal government help to provincial governments' resolve pressing issues? If Sharif acts as the Prime Minister of Punjab, the strategic repercussions for the federation may be severe. Already, separatist forces are clearly at work in Balochistan. It will not take much for disgruntled elements to undermine the federation in the other provinces.

Zardari's government chose to compromise national interests in favor of competing personal interests. Sure, Pakistanis can vote out Sharif's government in five years if his party too fails the country. However, the country is fast running out of time; and five years is a long time in today's wired age.

Pakistan rightly expect Sharif's incoming regime to make progress in stemming the country's decline. Pakistanis may not tolerate another five years of supporting a political elite which does no more than attend the National Assembly a few times a year, while keeping themselves isolated from national consciousness behind multiple layers of state sponsored security.

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Imran is a business and management consultant. Through his work at Deodar Advisors and the Deodar Diagnostic, Imran improves profits of businesses operating in Singapore and the region. He can be reached at imran@deodaradvisors.com.