Pakistan in 2023: optimism is hard to find

 

It's hard to be optimistic about Pakistan these days. The country's multiple crises are coming together to bring about a perfect storm. (I can't remember when the country was last in non-crisis mode?)

Credit: Unsplash - The Artist Studio

The two main political parties contending for power - Nawaz Sharif's (now Shehbaz Sharif's?) PML-N and Imran Khan's PTI - are playing a savage game of musical chairs in Islamabad and several provincial capitals. There is even less focus on governance than is usually the case.

And governance is what is required to pull Pakistan's economy back from the precipice. Ordinary Pakistanis are already struggling under the weight of 30 percent plus food price inflation (officially) pushing food insecurity to a level not seen in several decades. Moreover, electricity brownouts and gas shortages have expanded such that Islamabad seeks to implement policies to encourage reduced consumption (increasing suppy to keep pace with demand is much too difficult as it requires strategic planning). Foreign exchange is in such short supply that each day we receive news of more factories suspending production due to lack of imported raw materials. It's a mess even before one mentions the 'circular debt' plaguing the energy sector – which gets worse with each passing day.

All this while the security situation deteriorates alarmingly (let's talk some more with the Taliban?!). Afghanistan's Taliban government has reinvigorated, many would also say supported, the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) to carry out a series of high profile attacks especially in the western border province of Khyber Pakhtoonkhwa (KPK). These attacks have laid bare the state's claim that terrorism, particularly the TTP, had been defeated. No, the various groups were simply biding their time while regrouping. This time – and space - was provided to them by the recent attempt to negotiate. Releasing tens of militants from Pakistani jails by the authorities as a confidence building measure preceding the talks was simply icing on the cake.

Credit: Unsplash - Hassan Anwer

But wait, the bad news isn't finished yet. There's another open wound which has been festering for several decades and the infection looks to be spreading, i.e. the Baloch separatist movement. Despite the secular, republican nature of the Baloch insurgent movement there are whispers of collaboration between them and the revitalized religious extremists. The enemy of my enemy is my friend right?

Moreover, a nascent Sindhi nationalist movement has recently turned to violence - with the support of Baloch insurgents. Though it's a tentative, cautious shift at the moment, if a tight Sindhi-Baloch nationalist nexus is formed in future it spell more trouble (and violence) for Pakistan. Such violence, particularly if it emerges in Karachi, the country's commercial hub will further damage economic growth prospects. (Already business confidence within the city has been affected by a post-COVID resurgence in street crime.)

Unfortunately, most of these issues are systemic and cannot be wished away without sustained reform. (To be sure, having six, or was it seven, Finance Ministers in the last 4.5 years across two governments is not conducive to reform efforts!) Nonetheless, Pakistan has to start somewhere in order not to break more promises to its citizens.

Stay tuned (i.e.please follow!) for future posts in which I take a closer look at each of these subjects, including my suggestions for tackling these issues.

NB - I will be traveling to Pakistan in the next few weeks and will get a better understanding of ground realities following my visit.

Book review: The China-Pakistan Axis by Andrew Small

Over the years the China-Pakistan relationship has become a virtual constant in foreign policy matters pertaining to South Asia. Yet it is a relationship about which little is known. That is partly by design – the two nations like to keep the exact nature of the relationship out of the spotlight – but also because few experts have taken the time to dissect it.

Source: Wikipedia

The China – Pakistan Axis by Andrew Small is a worthy attempt to shine light on the longstanding linkages between the two nations.

The book chronicles the development of the relationship over the decades since the 1960s in a changing geopolitical environment. Indeed, the author brackets the relationship into easy to understand ‘bite size’ segments based on underlying themes during particular periods.

By the end of Small’s work, the reader has a good understanding of the main tenets of the Pak – China relationship. Nonetheless, the book is at best an introduction and not an in depth analysis. To be sure, it is an entertaining and worthy introduction.

However, the subject warrants more detailed analyses including in individual aspects of the China – Pakistan relationship, e.g. foreign policy coordination; counter terror cooperation especially with regard to Uygur separatism; economic cooperation; and even military industrial production.

One hopes Small’s book will be the first in a series – by different authors - on what is until now an enigmatic relationship between two very different nations.

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Imran is a Singapore based Tour Guide with a special interest in arts and history. Imran has lived and worked in several countries during his past career as an international banker. He enjoys traveling, especially by train, as a way to feed his curiosity about the world and nurture his interest in photography. He is available on Instagram (@imran_traveller); twitter (@grandmoofti) and can be contacted at imran.ahmed.sg@gmail.com.

Secrets of State by Matthew Palmer: a book review

Secrets of State, a novel written by former US diplomat Matthew Palmer, is a sophisticated work of fiction. In his book Palmer weaves together a believable plot involving an US and Indian ‘deep state’ conspiracy to militarily destroy Pakistan. The story involves some classy character development, beginning with the main protagonist Sam Trainor.

The plot has ultra-nationalist patriots in the US and Indian collaborate to launch a (false flag?) nuclear attack on an Indian city in order to provoke an Indian military attack aimed at destroying Pakistan (once and for all). For the Americans, the motive is to ‘protect’ the world by preventing Pakistani nukes from following into the wrong hands, i.e. Islamic extremist terrorists.

Through chance, coincidence or synchronicity a retired US South Asia specialist, Sam Trainor, gets a whiff of the plot and starts investigating through his network of Washington contacts. Pretty soon Trainor finds himself in hot waters and realizes he is onto something big.  

Meanwhile, his clandestine love interest – an Indian diplomat at her country’s US mission – and his daughter – a do-gooder, socially conscious, young half-Indian woman doing development work in the slums of Mumbai – both find themselves sucked into the terrorist plot.

Despite what appears to be a far-fetched series of events, Palmer does a good job piecing the story together. He even adds some historical ‘make believe’ stories from time to time to give the novel greater believability. It works.

Events in Secrets of State move quickly. The reader is kept in suspense and will hardly notice the length (437 pages) of the novel. 

To be sure, the author cashed in on post 9/11 conventional wisdom which conveniently placed every international terrorist incident at Pakistan’s doorstep.[i] Nonetheless, Secrets of State is more nuanced than many post 9/11 ‘terrorist’ thrillers. Palmer’s fiction is a good addition to the genre. Anyone who enjoys a good geo-political thriller will find Secrets of State a good read.

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[i] In the aftermath of 9/11, if an American in Washington DC caught the flu, it must have been a conspiracy involving biological weapons hatched in Pakistan’s governed tribal areas! Likewise, if a firecracker exploded unannounced on the streets of London it was an Islamic extremist attack planned and plotted by Pakistanis!

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Imran is a Singapore based Tour Guide with a special interest in arts and history. Imran has lived and worked in several countries during his past career as an international banker. He enjoys traveling, especially by train, as a way to feed his curiosity about the world and nurture his interest in photography. He is available on twitter (@grandmoofti); Instagram (@imranahmedsg) and can be contacted at imran.ahmed.sg@gmail.com

The Blood Telegram: Nixon, Kissinger, and a Forgotten Genocide: a book review

A good book to learn more about an under-researched war: the 1971 Indo-Pakistan war which led to the creation of Bangladesh. 

The author puts the war /crisis in the context of global politics and the US - Soviet Cold War which was raging in the 1970s. He also attempts to provide a balanced view though he often fails. Indeed, the book focuses more on the crisis as it plays out on US domestic politics. 

The books adds to the academic literature on the short war but is aimed more at the student of US politics rather than those interested in the minutae of South Asian politics. 

Only for the very interested.

Imran is an adventurer, blogger, consultant, guide, photographer, speaker, traveler and a banker in his previous life. He is available on twitter (@grandmoofti); instagram (@imranahmedsg) and can be contacted at imran.ahmed.sg@gmail.com.