Singapore: Monaco of the East!

Cities reinvent and regenerate themselves constantly. At least, cities which thrive and beat the ravages of time to stay relevant are no strangers to change.

Singapore is no exception. During the last ten years, the city explicitly decided to shirk its 'Fine City' image, moving from being a sterile, gum free environment to a hip, happening urban setting. As is often the case, Singapore's policymakers succeeded ... perhaps too well for the city's own good.

The casino, nightlife and incremental lifting of social restrictions worked its magic. From being the fortress 'Gibraltar of the East,' Singapore reinvented itself in the image of Monaco, i.e. the 'Monaco of the East.'

Monaco, of course, is a playground for the world's wealthy. Singapore too has become a playground for the worlds wealthy, particularly China's nouveau riche looking for a 'safer' place to park themselves and their cash. And, the annual haze notwithstanding, breathe fresh air.

Education is a key component of Singapore's drive to retain economic competitiveness in the coming years

To some extent, the 'New Singapore' means accepting larger income gaps between the wealthy and the not so wealthy. According to one widely accepted measure of income inequality, the Gini coefficient, Singapore's income inequality has risen during the last year – even taking into account all government subsidies and other redistribution measures.

However, all is not well in the PAP's (Singapore's ruling People's Action Party) domain.

Singaporeans are pushing back in an unprecedented manner. Locals are unhappy with Chinese immigrants driving Ferraris while subway trains get more crowded; or having to fight with foreigners for places in the local school system.

Nonetheless, there is no turning back for Singapore. The city's 5.3 million people will become 6 or even 6.9 million, maybe not at the PAP's proposed timetable but perhaps sometime within the next decade. (Seats on subway trains will remain a scarcity for commuters, forevermore!)

In the midst of all the changes in Singapore, one change becomes ever more obvious with time: Singapore's price competitiveness is eroding.

According to the latest Mercer cost of living survey, Singapore is the world's fifth most expensive city for expatriates. Hong Kong, Geneva, Zurich and Shanghai are all cheaper cities. The change may not be explicitly policy driven but it is a consequence of multiple factors, including growing Singapore's population by 66 percent in two decades.

To be sure, Singapore has moved beyond the stage of relying simply upon cost to retain economic competitiveness. Nonetheless, can Singapore afford to be the fifth most expensive city in the world and still preserve its 'regional hub' status – or will the Little Red Dot be relegated to being a hub exclusively for knowledge intensive 'Research and Development' areas such as biotechnology?'

Relying on knowledge intensive industries is no bad thing really ... if Singaporeans don't mind the income gap between rich and poor widening further in the coming years.

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Imran is a business and management consultant. Through his work at Deodar Advisors and the Deodar Diagnostic, Imran improves profits of businesses operating in Singapore and the region. He can be reached at imran@deodaradvisors.com. 

Reflections from Pakistan XII: Malala’s Swat Valley

Until a few years ago, Pakistan's Swat Valley was a serene, beautiful region known only to a handful of foreign and Pakistani domestic tourists. All that changed with the gradual infiltration of the valley by Taliban extremists during the 2000s. In fact, by 2006 the Pakistani state had lost control of most of the valley. The Pakistani state was left protecting Buddhist relics in the Swat Museum and a few other isolated pockets of authority, mostly in the form of minor paramilitary bases.

However, with the gradual Taliban takeover of the valley, alarm bells rang in Islamabad. Islamabad, Pakistan's capital, is approximately 250 kilometres and a four hours drive from the Swat's largest town, Mingora. (As the crow flies, the distance between the two cities is approximately 135 kilometers.)

Additionally, Swat is part of Pakistan 'proper,' civil courts, Constitution and all. The Swat Valley is not part of Pakistan's Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). There is no comparison between Swat and South Waziristan.

Pakistani soldiers raise the Pakistan flag at the Baine Baba Ziarat, the highest point in the Swat Valley located at a height of approximately 2,130 meters 

Initially uncertain about how to respond to the Taliban's encroachment on Pakistani territory, the state marshalled its forces and acted in 2009. Taking advantage of an unprecedented act of 'Islamic' justice – the whipping of a teenage girl by extremists in a public square – the government lined up public opinion behind a massive military offensive intended to eject Islamic militants from the Swat Valley.

Following bloody street battles and hand to hand combat, the military emerged victorious and declared victory a few months after Operation Rah-e-Rast began in May 2009. The operation came with a heavy price tag: millions of Swatis became temporarily homeless and street fighting had destroyed much physical infrastructure in the valley.

As Malala's optimism testifies, the war was worth the cost. The Swat Valley is open for tourism again. As a visitor to the Swat Valley myself late last year, I bear witness to the Valley's beauty and also its return to normalcy.

Surely, isolated (and unacceptable) acts of violence still occur across the Valley. However, the Taliban has been driven out. Girl schools are open. Women walk the streets alone – subject to 'pre-Taliban' social constraints imposed by the traditionally conservative Pashtun culture. Swat's residents radiate hope and happiness; more so than most other parts of Pakistan. Electricity shortages mean nothing to Swat's residents, they are happy simply to breathe freely again.

Most importantly, an unambiguous and defiant message has been delivered to the Pakistani Taliban by the Pakistani state and people: there is a line in the sand beyond which Islamist encroachment onto the country's 'mainland' will not be tolerated.

One may find many reasons to criticize the Pakistan army, beginning with General Zia's disastrous 'Islamization' process in the 1980s. However, any visitor (or resident) to the Swat Valley can do nothing but praise the Pakistani military. The army has brought order back to the valley – restoring hope and sanity in the process. If Pakistan has only one success story from its war against the Taliban, the Swat Valley has to be it.

View a small selection of my photos from the Swat Valley here.

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Imran is a business and management consultant. Through his work at Deodar Advisors and the Deodar Diagnostic, Imran improves profits of businesses operating in Singapore and the region. He can be reached at imran@deodaradvisors.com. 

Sufism – a Quest for Eternal Truth

All are invited to a free talk on Islam's Sufi traditions in the context of other faiths, particularly Buddhism, organized by the Asian Classics Institute (Singapore).

Date:          July 1, 2013 (Monday)

Time:          7.30 – 9.00 pm

Venue:       #02-45 Shaw Tower, 100 Beach Road, Singapore

For more details and registration, please visit Asian Classics Institute.

Singapore punches above its weight diplomatically - really?

The haze is an 'externality,' a phenomenon ostensibly beyond the control of Singapore's government. A result of burning forests and peat, commonly attributed to 'slash and burn' farming techniques employed in nearby Indonesian islands. However, never during the last two decades has the haze affected behaviour as severely as during the last few days. Sure, the haze was bad a few times in the late 1990s but it probably did not reach 'hazardous' levels on the Pollutants Standards Index (PSI) measure. During the last few days, the PSI seems to have breached the 400 number a few times.

The haze places more than just the health of Singapore's greatest asset – its people – at stake. Its economic implications are significant.

Indonesia: hear the roar of Singapore's mighty Merlion?

Absent and unhealthy workers affect productivity. Retail sales are affected by people staying indoors as much as possible. Tourism takes a hit as people cancel or shorten pleasure and business trips. For those brave individuals who visit Singapore anyway, they may not leave with happy memories and will most certainly not spend as much time in indulging in outdoors activity (e.g. Sentosa, Orchard Road, alfresco dining).

Despite being a problem with roots in Indonesia, Singapore has diplomatic options to help alleviate – if not completely redress – the annual haze dilemma. To be sure, Singapore must balance the 'carrot and stick' effectively to ensure the Republic's relations with Indonesia are not irrevocably damaged.

Diplomacy is a delicate art requiring the virtuous use of many different soft and hard levers in an optimal combination. Results are never guaranteed and unintended consequences may also arise from using any number of diplomatic tools.

Singaporeans are often told, Singapore is a small country but due to hard work and progress, the country punches above its weight. The present is as good a time as any to demonstrate Singapore's regional clout by pushing for a sustainable solution to an ongoing problem. To remain hostage year after year to the same problem is not an option.

Singapore's politicians and civil servants, including diplomats, are well paid and highly trained. Ordinary Singaporeans will be happy to see them earn their keep by continuing current efforts to address the crisis. Surely, Singapore's otherwise wise and masterful civil service scholars and policy makers can come up with lasting solutions to vexing questions such as the haze?

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Imran is a business and management consultant. Through his work at Deodar Advisors and the Deodar Diagnostic, Imran improves profits of businesses operating in Singapore and the region. He can be reached at imran@deodaradvisors.com. 

Another protest rally in Singapore – what else is new?

Not so long ago, criticisms of Singapore's ruling party figures were typically voiced only in hushed tones. For good reason: critics feared defamation law suits which often ended only once the defendant declared bankruptcy. Soon enough, some of Singapore's fiercest opposition activists were either bankrupt or preoccupied with trying to keep their heads afloat. Meanwhile, ordinary citizens were too busy pursuing the coveted 'Five C's,' leaving little spare time for any political activism.

That was the last century. Much has changed in Singapore since the dawn of the new Millennium. The River Safari, Esplanade, Singapore Flyer, Gardens by the Bay and Marina Bay Sands now grace Singapore's limited land mass.

A view of Singapore's skyline in the new Millennium

However, the real changes have been in the Singaporean's psyche.

The list of subtle though significant changes in Singapore is endless. Corruption cases originating in the public sector elicit no more than shrug – although if sex is involved then all details must be made public in the name of 'transparency!' Crime, including loan sharking, is more common than at any time in recent memory. And, horror of all horrors, even labour unrest and strikes have resurfaced in Singapore.

One of the most apparent changes is a willingness to challenge official government policies openly. Today, Ex-Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong's famous 'Out of Bounds' markers are slowly but surely becoming obsolete.

There is no more hiding behind anonymous social media monikers or whispering behind closed doors. Instead, opposition is expressed directly at the ballot box and, more surprisingly, through regular demonstrations at Singapore's own Speakers' Corner located at Hong Lim Park. (The Hong Lim Park 'haven' of free speech was itself an innovation of the new Millennium, inaugurated in the year 2000.)

During the last few months, Speakers' Corner has been the venue for several rallies. A couple were directed at the government's immigration policies while the most recent gathering expressed participants' disapproval at the government's new media regulations which came into force a few days ago.

Humans are fascinated by new and original activities, especially if they include an element of 'shock value.' This certainly seemed the case with the recent string of protests at Singapore's Speakers' Corner. Many joined the demonstrations not only to express displeasure but also to experience something novel.

However, humans also get bored easily. People tend to move on to the next new thing quickly – unless there is a glue to make the activity stick sustainable. The Singapore government must wait to see if there is any glue binding Singapore's social activists together; particularly once the novelty of raising anti-government placard and slogans fades away.

Nevertheless, recent events have established one fact: protest rallies at Hong Lim Park are no longer the exclusive domain of political activists. In fact, protest gatherings may soon become just another Saturday afternoon bonding activity for Singaporean families wishing to visit a park.

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Imran is a business and management consultant. Through his work at Deodar Advisors and the Deodar Diagnostic, Imran improves profits of businesses operating in Singapore and the region. He can be reached at imran@deodaradvisors.com. 

Reflections from Pakistan XI: Islamabad is a foreign city

Islamabad is Pakistan's custom built capital. A city built on an empty piece of land during the 1960s. Until recently, Pakistanis were not 'from' Islamabad – they just happened to live in Islamabad. (Until recently, only bureaucrats and diplomats lived in Islamabad.) However, today a new generation of 'Islamabadis,' with their own culture and lifestyle has emerged.

Islamabad's location on the Potohar Plateau surrounded by the Margalla Hills was no accident. Despite sitting astride an earthquake fault line, President Ayub Khan selected the location due to its proximity with Rawalpindi, Lahore and Peshawar. As a bonus, nearby hill stations like Murree, standing at a comfortable 2,300 meters above sea level, are just about one hour drive north. From the capital, Lahore is several hours drive south while Peshawar is a road journey of a couple of hours northwest.

Daman-e-Koh park in the Margalla Hills which surround Islamabad

Islamabad is home to Pakistan's Parliament and civil bureaucratic leadership. The country's lawmakers and senior mandarins live in nice, leafy neighbourhoods dotted across the city's 900 square kilometer area. Despite being the country's capital, many Pakistanis feel Islamabad is a foreign city; not a part of the 'real' Pakistan. It is easy to understand why such a belief is so widespread.

Islamabad has a sense of order and logic absent from Pakistan's other cities. The 'grid' design of Islamabad city streets helps reinforce the perception of order. In stark contrast, Pakistan's other cities have developed with little or no urban planning. Cities like Karachi and Lahore are breaking under the weight of the country's ever expanding population.

Islamabad's order is far removed from the problems of 'real' Pakistan. Thus, by residing in Islamabad, Pakistani lawmakers and senior mandarins have little practical understanding of the life experienced by most Pakistanis.

Given Pakistan's multitude of serious problems, it is easy to understand why the Pakistani political elite might wish to insulate itself from the rest of the nation by sticking its head inside Islamabad's hallowed ground.

Unfortunately, Pakistan's problems are compounding to the extent that Islamabadis cannot hide from them any longer. Islamabad has electricity rationing like the rest of the country. Extremist mullahs make noise in Islamabad – even violently such as during the 2007 Lal Masjid incident, 2008 attack on Islamabad's Marriott Hotel, or most recently during protests in September 2012 against an allegedly blasphemous film – as in the rest of the country. Other ills plaguing Pakistan, including crime, inflation and unemployment, ultimately find themselves seeping through Islamabad's sterilized door.

Certainly, Islamabad is a nice showcase for Pakistan. But Islamabad is a foreign country. Pakistanis can only hope Prime Minister designate Nawaz Sharif's government will remember there is more to Pakistan than Islamabad (and Lahore).

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Imran is a business and management consultant. Through his work at Deodar Advisors and the Deodar Diagnostic, Imran improves profits of businesses operating in Singapore and the region. He can be reached at imran@deodaradvisors.com. 

Sharif’s enviable tasks for Pakistan

With Pakistan's elections out of the way, Pakistanis are eagerly anticipating two things sorely missed during the last five years of democracy: governance and leadership.

One would expect democracy – with its large quotient of accountability to the people – will have provided large doses of both governance and leadership to Pakistan.  Not so. Since the removal of President Musharraf's regime, the only aspect of democracy visible to most Pakistanis has been an unmistakable slide towards anarchy.

The military, still smarting from the ignominies associated with the final few years of Musharraf's rule, stayed away from active politics. Moreover, the military is busy fighting Taliban militants bent on undermining the Pakistani state. It was left to an activist judiciary to try and maintain some semblance of control over an inept civilian government. The judiciary's controversial efforts unseated Prime Minister Gilani but failed to galvanize the government to implement any meaningful policy reforms.

Imran Khan, the white knight ever-ready to save Pakistan, made some electoral inroads in Election 2013. Khan's party was helped by the 'protest vote' against Pakistan's two mainstream political parties (vehicles for Zaradari and Sharif). Having won the most seats in the Khyberpukhtoonkhwa (KPK) provincial assembly, Khan has the opportunity to prove himself by forming the KPK government. Voters will be watching closely to see how his party fares in the rough and tumble of Pakistani politics.  

Nonetheless, Nawaz Sharif won a handsome victory in Election 2013. People expect him to put his mandate to good use. Top of the nation's wish list are security and reliable electricity. Sharif has the reputation of being pro-business. Surely, a businessperson understands that electricity is a prerequisite for a modern economy!

Additionally, people outside of Sharif's stronghold of Punjab province will scrutinize his focus on Pakistan's three smaller provinces. Will he abandon the likes of Karachi, rural Sindh, KPK and Balochistan or will the federal government help to provincial governments' resolve pressing issues? If Sharif acts as the Prime Minister of Punjab, the strategic repercussions for the federation may be severe. Already, separatist forces are clearly at work in Balochistan. It will not take much for disgruntled elements to undermine the federation in the other provinces.

Zardari's government chose to compromise national interests in favor of competing personal interests. Sure, Pakistanis can vote out Sharif's government in five years if his party too fails the country. However, the country is fast running out of time; and five years is a long time in today's wired age.

Pakistan rightly expect Sharif's incoming regime to make progress in stemming the country's decline. Pakistanis may not tolerate another five years of supporting a political elite which does no more than attend the National Assembly a few times a year, while keeping themselves isolated from national consciousness behind multiple layers of state sponsored security.

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Imran is a business and management consultant. Through his work at Deodar Advisors and the Deodar Diagnostic, Imran improves profits of businesses operating in Singapore and the region. He can be reached at imran@deodaradvisors.com.