It's
hard to be optimistic about Pakistan these days. The country's
multiple crises are coming together to bring about a perfect storm.
(I can't remember when the country was last in non-crisis mode?)
Credit: Unsplash - The Artist Studio
The two main political parties contending for power - Nawaz
Sharif's (now Shehbaz Sharif's?) PML-N and Imran Khan's PTI - are
playing a savage game of musical chairs in Islamabad and several
provincial capitals. There is even less focus on governance than is
usually the case.
And
governance is what is required to pull Pakistan's economy back from
the precipice. Ordinary Pakistanis are already struggling under the
weight of 30 percent plus food price inflation (officially) pushing
food insecurity to a level not seen in several decades. Moreover,
electricity brownouts and gas shortages have expanded such that
Islamabad seeks to implement policies to encourage reduced
consumption (increasing suppy to keep pace with demand is much too
difficult as it requires strategic planning). Foreign exchange is in
such short supply that each day we receive news of more factories
suspending production due to lack of imported raw materials. It's a
mess even before one mentions the 'circular debt' plaguing the energy
sector – which gets worse with each passing day.
All
this while the security situation deteriorates alarmingly (let's talk
some more with the Taliban?!). Afghanistan's Taliban government has
reinvigorated, many would also say supported, the Tehreek-e-Taliban
Pakistan (TTP) to carry out a series of high profile attacks
especially in the western border province of Khyber Pakhtoonkhwa
(KPK). These attacks have laid bare the state's claim that terrorism,
particularly the TTP, had been defeated. No, the various groups were
simply biding their time while regrouping. This time – and space -
was provided to them by the recent attempt to negotiate. Releasing
tens of militants from Pakistani jails by the authorities as a
confidence building measure preceding the talks was simply icing on
the cake.
Credit: Unsplash - Hassan Anwer
But wait, the bad news isn't finished yet. There's
another open wound which has been festering for several decades and
the infection looks to be spreading, i.e. the Baloch separatist
movement. Despite the secular, republican nature of the Baloch
insurgent movement there are whispers of collaboration between them
and the revitalized religious extremists. The enemy of my enemy is my
friend right?
Moreover, a nascent Sindhi nationalist movement
has recently turned to violence - with the support of Baloch
insurgents. Though it's a tentative, cautious shift at the moment, if
a tight Sindhi-Baloch nationalist nexus is formed in future it spell
more trouble (and violence) for Pakistan. Such violence, particularly
if it emerges in Karachi, the country's commercial hub will further
damage economic growth prospects. (Already business confidence within
the city has been affected by a post-COVID resurgence in street
crime.)
Unfortunately, most of these issues are systemic and
cannot be wished away without sustained reform. (To be sure, having
six, or was it seven, Finance Ministers in the last 4.5 years across
two governments is not conducive to reform efforts!) Nonetheless,
Pakistan has to start somewhere in order not to break more promises
to its citizens.
Stay tuned (i.e.please follow!) for future
posts in which I take a closer look at each of these subjects,
including my suggestions for tackling these issues.
NB - I
will be traveling to Pakistan in the next few weeks and will get a
better understanding of ground realities following my visit.
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