Pakistan in 2023: optimism is hard to find

 

It's hard to be optimistic about Pakistan these days. The country's multiple crises are coming together to bring about a perfect storm. (I can't remember when the country was last in non-crisis mode?)

Credit: Unsplash - The Artist Studio

The two main political parties contending for power - Nawaz Sharif's (now Shehbaz Sharif's?) PML-N and Imran Khan's PTI - are playing a savage game of musical chairs in Islamabad and several provincial capitals. There is even less focus on governance than is usually the case.

And governance is what is required to pull Pakistan's economy back from the precipice. Ordinary Pakistanis are already struggling under the weight of 30 percent plus food price inflation (officially) pushing food insecurity to a level not seen in several decades. Moreover, electricity brownouts and gas shortages have expanded such that Islamabad seeks to implement policies to encourage reduced consumption (increasing suppy to keep pace with demand is much too difficult as it requires strategic planning). Foreign exchange is in such short supply that each day we receive news of more factories suspending production due to lack of imported raw materials. It's a mess even before one mentions the 'circular debt' plaguing the energy sector – which gets worse with each passing day.

All this while the security situation deteriorates alarmingly (let's talk some more with the Taliban?!). Afghanistan's Taliban government has reinvigorated, many would also say supported, the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) to carry out a series of high profile attacks especially in the western border province of Khyber Pakhtoonkhwa (KPK). These attacks have laid bare the state's claim that terrorism, particularly the TTP, had been defeated. No, the various groups were simply biding their time while regrouping. This time – and space - was provided to them by the recent attempt to negotiate. Releasing tens of militants from Pakistani jails by the authorities as a confidence building measure preceding the talks was simply icing on the cake.

Credit: Unsplash - Hassan Anwer

But wait, the bad news isn't finished yet. There's another open wound which has been festering for several decades and the infection looks to be spreading, i.e. the Baloch separatist movement. Despite the secular, republican nature of the Baloch insurgent movement there are whispers of collaboration between them and the revitalized religious extremists. The enemy of my enemy is my friend right?

Moreover, a nascent Sindhi nationalist movement has recently turned to violence - with the support of Baloch insurgents. Though it's a tentative, cautious shift at the moment, if a tight Sindhi-Baloch nationalist nexus is formed in future it spell more trouble (and violence) for Pakistan. Such violence, particularly if it emerges in Karachi, the country's commercial hub will further damage economic growth prospects. (Already business confidence within the city has been affected by a post-COVID resurgence in street crime.)

Unfortunately, most of these issues are systemic and cannot be wished away without sustained reform. (To be sure, having six, or was it seven, Finance Ministers in the last 4.5 years across two governments is not conducive to reform efforts!) Nonetheless, Pakistan has to start somewhere in order not to break more promises to its citizens.

Stay tuned (i.e.please follow!) for future posts in which I take a closer look at each of these subjects, including my suggestions for tackling these issues.

NB - I will be traveling to Pakistan in the next few weeks and will get a better understanding of ground realities following my visit.