Karachi: Pakistan’s orphan without a guardian

On a trip to Karachi during the summer monsoon season 2019 the Federal Government made loud promises about cleaning up Karachi (and its drains) within one week. To add substance to the claims the Frontier Works Organization (FWO) and the Pakistan Rangers, both branches of the powerful military establishment, were handed the task. The Federal Minister for Ports and Shipping was appointed to handle the task and, as with the PML-Ns ‘law and order’ clean up initiated in 2013 – the Federal Government was prepared to go it alone if the efforts were not supported by the provincial and civic authorities.

Yet another public fund (remember the Dam Fund?) was created to solicit public donations to help pay for Karachi’s cleaning. One supposes charitable funds are required for this essential civic service because not enough taxes are collected by the authorities in Karachi? Not.

The Karachi Municipal Corporation (KMC) building. The KMC is one of the several governmental agencies responsible for Karachi's current state of civic neglect. (Photo: Wikipedia)

One year later – monsoon season 2020 - Karachites are reminded they live in Pakistan's largest orphan city. City roads are streams inundated with various blends of sewage and rain water – clean drinking water is an unrealistic dream not worth mentioning.

In other words, no substantial improvements have been made during the last twelve months. Additionally, there has been no accountability at any level neither for the civic lapses nor for the millions collected in donations by the 2019 Clean Karachi campaign.

As if on cue, accusations of blame regarding inaction and lack of preparedness are being hurled. These accusations are closely followed by tall claims about immediate action including by the Prime Minister himself, i.e. political grand standing.  

While the city (MQM), provincial (PPP) and federal (PTI) governments' fight for supremacy over the goose that lays golden (revenue) eggs, ordinary Karachites continue to suffer. Karachites don't care which political party, e.g. ANP, MQM, PML-N, PPP or PTI, fixes their city. People simply want the political leadership to stop bickering and take action.

Pakistan’s leadership must ask itself if Pakistan can progress while its economic heart and largest city is mired in civic despair.

A listless Karachi places a glass ceiling on Pakistan’s development while a vibrant Karachi acts as a catalyst for national growth.

Conclusion: Karachites wait patiently for monsoon 2021 when, in all likelihood, they will again wake to urban flooding. The flooding will automatically be followed initially by finger pointing and subsequently by dramatic promises from politicians (and ‘non-political’ military men) of renewed efforts to clean Karachi. Ironically, while Karachi waits for monsoon 2021 the city will return to its usual water shortages and the water mafia.  

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Imran is a Singapore based Tour Guide with a special interest in arts and history. Imran has lived and worked in several countries during his past career as an international banker. He enjoys traveling, especially by train, as a way to feed his curiosity about the world and nurture his interest in photography. He is available on Instagram (@imranahmedsg); twitter (@grandmoofti) and can be contacted at imran.ahmed.sg@gmail.com.

Pakistan's Kashmir obsession: unhealthy and unrealistic?

As the Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan arrives in New York for the latest session of the United Nations General Assembly it's necessary for Pakistanis to ask exactly what the country can do about Indian Kashmir.

Muzaffarabad is the largest city and capital of Azad Jammu and Kashmir. It is located near the confluence of the Jhelum and Neelum Rivers and is a four hour drive from Islamabad, Pakistan's capital. (Source: Wikipedia: Obaid 747) 

The country's economic managers are walking around with a begging bowl because the country cannot pay its bills leave alone spend money on national development. The Pakistan Banao (Bachao?) Certificates launched with great fanfare early in Khan's term and designed to raise Pakistan's foreign currency reserves have done little to strengthen reserves.

The economy is in the midst of a serious downturn with no recovery in sight for at least the coming 18-24 months. Large scale manufacturing is shrinking while small and medium sized enterprises labor under the effects of increased taxation, a sharp drop in the value of the Rupee and an emasculated consumer struggling to make ends meet while losing more discretionary income with each passing day given an official inflation rate above thirteen percent.

The country is running out of water but has no money to build dams. Despite arm twisting and 'forced donations' (e.g. via each Pakistan Railways ticket sold) the Supreme Court's Dam Fund is nowhere near numbers required to seriously assist with the urgent building of dams across the country. Indeed, the much hyped Dam Fund has become a hazy memory for most and an embarrassing one for those promoting crowdfunding as an alternate means to pay for massive national infrastructural projects. 

The electricity situation is no better. Despite suffering shortages and brownouts for the last several decades, Pakistan has been unable to fix its electricity load shedding problem until today. Much of the country suffers hours without electricity daily in both Winter and Summer months. Even when electricity is available it is not stable with voltage fluctuations playing havoc with machinery; a disincentive for manufacturing concerns requiring stable, uninterrupted electricity for normal operations.

The country has no proper waste management systems. Without a drastic betterment in urban sanitation levels improvements in preventive healthcare will remain wanting. (Picking up litter from urban areas and dumping it on the outskirts of cities so it is out of sight does not constitute proper waste management.) It's not surprising Pakistan is one of the only countries where polio still afflicts children. 

The air quality in Pakistan's cities is rapidly deteriorating due to pollution. Indeed, Lahore is blanketed by haze virtually on a daily basis with air quality moving into the healthy range an exception to the daily norm. Islamabad and Karachi are not far behind. This is the air Pakistan's infants breathe daily – and there is no shortage of infants given the country's fertility rate.

Pakistan cannot provide adequate food, housing, education or medical care to the majority of Pakistanis. In many households, animals are more precious than women, who have few effective social or economic freedoms. All these problems are compounded by Pakistan's unbridled population growth with its population increasing exponentially every few decades.

So as PM Khan travels back to Pakistan in a few days on on a borrowed Saudi luxury jet he may wish to ask himself what's more important for Pakistan's two hundred million plus citizens: ratcheting up Kashmir hysteria a few more notches or implementing a national development agenda on a war footing?

Imran is a Singapore based Tour Guide with a special interest in arts and history. Imran has lived and worked in several countries during his career as an international banker. He enjoys traveling, especially by train, as a way to feed his curiosity about the world and nurture his interest in photography. He is available on twitter (@grandmoofti); Instagram(@imranahmedsg) and can be contacted at imran.ahmed.sg@gmail.com.

PTI’s Khan panders to Islamists and Mr Chief Justice I can’t hear you now?

Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehrik-Insaf (PTI) government's recent collapse in facing down Islamist radicals over the appointment of Pakistani Princeton University economist - who happens to be Qadiani - to a government advisory panel, is shameful.

Even more shameful is that Imran Khan did not use even one iota of his considerable political capital to support Atif Mian. There was no public statement from King Khan himself, only official comments by his minions.

Source: Wikipedia

Is this the Naya Pakistan for which Pakistanis voted?

Apart from the fact that the government's behavior is illegal - Pakistan's Constitution is unambiguous on the subject – it sets a dangerous precedent for the State's future. 

PTI's surrender places in doubt Khan's ability to follow through with his ambitious reform program in the face of protest. Economic reform requires tough decisions and if the government is only capable or willing to implement populist policies then whence the reform?

The incident underscores  the recent disintegration of Imran Khan's principles at the altar of political expediency – following on from his decision to appoint 'lotas' (aka electables) in a hitherto principled political party.

Undoubtedly, we cannot bury the notion of Naya Pakistan until the PTI's five year term is complete. However, the PTI has not had an auspicious start and the omens don't look good, especially for women and non-Muslim minorities.

Before one gives up all hope, perhaps one can give a shout out to the otherwise activist 'Suo Moto' Chief Justice? Yes, we appreciate your efforts in building dams Mr Chief Justice but can we request you also focus on your day job and dutifully enforce Pakistan's Constitution in Atif Mian's case?

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[i] No citizen otherwise qualified for appointment in the service of Pakistan shall be discriminated against in respect of any such appointment on the ground only of race, religion, caste, sex, residence or place of birth. Pakistan Constitution, Article 27 (1)

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Imran is a former banker and  has lived and worked in several countries during his international banking career. He enjoys traveling, especially by train, as a way to feed his curiosity about the world and nurture his interest in photography. He is available on twitter (@grandmoofti); Instagram (@imranahmedsg) and can be contacted at imran.ahmed.sg@gmail.com

Note to Pakistan’s economic managers: reforming tax collection techniques

As the euphoria surrounding former cricket star Imran Khan’s election victory begins to fade in Pakistan, the country’s economic managers must deal with the hard tasks ahead. Immediately improving foreign currency reserves is simply a tactical necessity. The real challenges are strategic.

If Pakistan approaches the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for economic support – as is widely predicted by most analysts – then the IMF will remind Pakistan’s new Finance Minister of at least two priorities: increasing revenue and reducing expenses.

In order to achieve these two objectives there is a need to move away from the simple solution of imposing additional withholding taxes on an already excessively used taxation technique. To date, this method has only resulted in mixed success.

Presently, virtually any financial transaction in Pakistan’s organized sector, i.e. a documented transaction and not in cash, requires the collection of withholding tax. For example, registering a car or paying motor vehicle tax; registering a property; cash dividend payments made by listed corporations to individuals; and banking transactions such as preparing a bank draft all require collection / payment of a withholding tax. 

In theory, this tax payment is an advance tax and may be adjusted against future corporate or individual tax liabilities. In practice, few individual taxpayers make the effort to reduce their tax liability by the advance tax amount. For corporations, except maybe for top tier multinational and local institutions, increased bookkeeping coupled with a weak and often corrupt tax collection infrastructure reduce the incentive to claim advance tax. In other words, other than a few large corporations with sufficient resources to devote to copious bookkeeping, few businesses ever see the benefits of any ‘advance tax’ collected on their behalf.

Sure, it will be easy to continue and ‘widen’ Pakistan’s tax base by implementing additional presumptive tax on more transactions – or increasing percentages on existing advance tax payments - especially as these tax collections will likely be booked under the Direct Income Tax category and (falsely) boost the government’s claim of broadening the tax net.  Nevertheless, such taxes will only make Pakistan’s economy more inefficient by pushing up the cost of doing business, especially for Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs), a backbone of the country’s economy.

Improving Pakistan’s tax collection infrastructure through reforming the operations of Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) is a prerequisite for success. It should be noted that reforming the FBR is a necessary though not sufficient condition for enhancing the country’s tax revenue.

One means of increasing FBR’s operational efficiencies is to reduce unnecessary human touch points. Corporate and individual tax payers should have as little interaction with humans as possible. Basic tax transactions must be simplified. More transactions should be shifted online. Online transactions reduce the possibility of corruption, improve speed and result in simplicity - an all round elegant solution.

To the naysayers who believe serious reform of the FBR is impossible only need look at the successes of NADRA and even the Election Commission. Both these government agencies have adopted new technologies and greatly simplified the lives of many Pakistanis as a result. Transactions which took weeks, months or even longer and were impossible without several unproductive visits to government departments are now routinely completed using a few clicks on a keyboard. Smart solutions are the way forward for the FBR.

Undoubtedly, increasing revenue and reducing expenses lie at the heart of any economic restructuring be it national, corporate or individual. Unfortunately, converting these two principles into effective policy decisions is a complicated process fraught with political minefields. Nonetheless, Imran Khan’s Justice Party (PTI) has a real opportunity to lay the foundation for genuine reform.

In my next post, I will discuss the necessity of approaching the ‘Filer’ and ‘Non-Filer’ distinction with greater finesse. ‘Non-Filers’ are not synonymous with tax evaders. Hence, throwing all ‘Non-Filers’ into a ‘penalize by paying more tax’ bucket is an unfair use of state powers. The policy must be improved to make it more equitable. Stay tuned.

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Imran is a Singapore based Tour Guide with a special interest in arts and history. Imran has lived and worked in several countries during his past career as an international banker. He enjoys traveling, especially by train, as a way to feed his curiosity about the world and nurture his interest in photography. He is available on twitter (@grandmoofti); Instagram (@imranahmedsg) and can be contacted at imran.ahmed.sg@gmail.com

Imran Khan: don’t you have a province to govern?

As a cricketer, Imran Khan was a fine leader and brought cricketing glory to Pakistan in 1992. However, even during his World Cup victory speech it was clear what Imran Khan is about – himself! Imran's victory speech ignored Pakistani fans, the nation and his teammates. It only referred to his personal obsession and his career (watch the video from one minute onward to understand why I make the claim).

As a politician, Imran Khan has fared less well. For starters, it seems Imran's ego cannot accept losing Pakistan's 2013 general elections, particularly to a 'twice tried and failed' Nawaz Sharif and the Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N). After all, Imran Khan's Pakistan's Tehrik Insaf (PTI) party promised to rid the nation of corruption in 100 days; build a cricket pitch in each district; and, most importantly, was led by the only person who knows how to fix Pakistan, i.e. Imran Khan himself.

So maybe it was Imran's ego which led to the PTI's poorly timed (Pakistan's Independence Day – really?) and unsuccessfully executed 'Long March' from Lahore to Islamabad. Once the Long March fizzled out, the Prime Minister 'wannabe' decided to take his party deeper into the political wilderness. He has called for a civil disobedience movement  against the government by demanding Pakistanis stop paying utility bills, taxes, etc (Imran Khan: Pakistan's Martin Luther King, jr. in the nation's fight against an 'illegitimate' government?!).

The Pakistan Monument located in Islamabad, the nation's Capital city

Now the PTI has asked all its Parliamentarians to resign from the National and Provincial Assemblies. But wait, there's some fine print. No Parliamentarians need to resign from the Khyberpukhtoonkhwa (KPK) Provincial Assembly! I guess the polls were only rigged in the three provinces where the PTI did not win enough seats to form a government?

Imran Khan – hit the reset button and get with the national storyline! You can still salvage the PTI and yourself from the hole you have dug over the last few weeks.

Rescind calls for civil disobedience and move away from confrontation. Instead, start delivering on election promises through the PTI managed KPK provincial government. Focus energies on constructive and useful issues, e.g. spearhead the polio immunization campaign in KPK, champion female education in a province still sceptical of its benefits, etc. There are a thousand and one things in KPK which scream for attention and political will. Voters will naturally flock to the PTI once they see KPK effectively governed by the party.

The way to winning the Pakistani people is not through confrontational politics. It is through good governance. The people of KPK gave you an opportunity to showcase your party's effectiveness in governing. Don't squander the trust of the KPK electorate.

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Imran is a business and management consultant. Through his work at Deodar Advisors and the Deodar Diagnostic, Imran improves profits of businesses operating in Singapore and the region. He can be reached at imran@deodaradvisors.com. 

Pakistan’s 2013 General Elections: some positives and negatives

Positive

1.   Largest voter turnout in three decades drowns out Islamic militant extremists;

2.   PPP candidates suffer a drubbing! Electorate demonstrates unhappiness with disastrous five years under Zardari and his people. Bhutto aura appears to be fading;

3.   Imran Khan's party goes some way to break the traditional two-party stranglehold on Pakistani politics;

4.   Clear mandate to PML-N;

5.   All politics is local – province's voted according to local issues;

6.   Imran Khan's PTI to most certainly be part of new KPK government – will provide opportunity to party to demonstrate practically PTI's effectiveness at governance;

7.   Many first time voters across the country. The power of the ballot seeps into national consciousness.

Negative

1.   Imran Khan's party splits electorate;

2.   Clear mandate to a party with a dubious /mixed historical track record in governing Pakistan;

3.   Clear divide in voting patterns across the four provinces – national versus provincial politics;

4.   Other than Punjab, likely that governments of three smaller provinces will not be from party forming federal government – will most certainly lead to tensions between Centre and Provinces;

5.   Islamic militants and 'gangster' elements demonstrate ability to carry out violent acts almost at will throughout the country. Law enforcement agencies appear helpless;

6.   Likely that PML-N will soften stance against religious extremists thus setting country back socially. Women's rights and cultural environment to particularly suffer;

7. Secular ANP party virtually wiped out from KPK assemblies.

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Imran is a business and management consultant. Through his work at Deodar Advisors and the Deodar Diagnostic, Imran improves profits of businesses operating in Singapore and the region. He can be reached at imran@deodaradvisors.com. 

Pakistan's other Imran and its chattering classes

Since the advent of Zardari's Pakistan People's Party (PPP) led government in 2008, governance in Pakistan has all but disappeared. Some may refer to the deterioration as 'creative chaos' but in reality the decline is simply a manifestation of an incompetent government with a corrupt leadership comprising of politicians who have no desire to address any national issues. Their only wish being to retain the privileges of power.

 

 

One beneficiary of the PPP's incompetent government is Pakistan's former cricket star, Imran Khan.

After spending years in the political wilderness, Khan's party the Tehreek Insaf (PTI) is knocking on the doors of Pakistan's political mainstream. For a politician who has yet to win an elections in his own parliamentary constituency, the PTI's progress is no small achievement.

The ordinary Pakistani voters' disillusionment with the country's two main established political parties, the PPP and Nawaz Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League-N, is a major contributing factor to the PTI's popularity.

A vote for PTI is a protest vote. A desperate electorate's plea for help. An electorate repeatedly abandoned and deceived by established politicians. Significantly, Pakistan's protest voters have not turned to Islamic parties, primarily because the orthodox religious establishment is a pillar for the existing decayed political structure.

Khan's success with the PTI bodes well for the future of Pakistani politics.

The party has not shied away from public discussion about difficult political or economic issues. Consequently, not only has public awareness about important national issues increased but, most importantly, the standards for policy debate have improved. Pakistan's vibrant television media - always looking for the next sensational news item - has latched onto the PTI's agenda as a tool to take the establishment to task.

Moreover, the PTI has struck a chord with Pakistan's normally apathetic youth. Suddenly, politics is no longer a dirty and dangerous pastime, but a national obligation. The PTI's 'tsunami' of change is predicated upon politicizing large numbers of young voters.

The PTI has also galvanized educated professionals into action. Many professionals, alarmed at the prospect of retiring in a 'Failed State,' have moved beyond heated debate during whiskey drinking sessions and entered the political arena. Whether such 'technocrats' are merely PR 'talking heads' or they will exercise significant policy making influence within the party remains to be seen.

The Minar-e-Pakistan: erected on the site where the Pakistan Resolution was passed in Lahore in 1940

To most Pakistanis, Imran Khan is a cricketer who also built the Shaukat Khanum Memorial Cancer Hospital and Research Centre. Khan was a playboy who turned into a pseudo-mullah, an anglophile become 'desi.' For Pakistani voters, the PTI may be a naive, confused political party but it does hold out hope for positive change for a people who deserve better than criminals and gangsters walking the corridors of power.

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Imran is a business and management consultant. Through his work at Deodar Advisors and the Deodar Diagnostic, Imran improves profits of businesses operating in Singapore and the region. He can be reached at imran@deodaradvisors.com.