As
we head closer to the six month mark of the
Ukraine war, the military confrontation is locked in a virtual
stalemate. Despite Russia controlling about twenty percent of pre-war
Ukraine there is little likelihood of a military victory by either
side anytime soon.
NATO
/ US will fight until the last Ukrainian and the Russians are in no
mood to talk either. The implications of this stubborn desire to
fight are severe.
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| Source: Pexels |
1.
Ukraine will suffer more widespread and intense destruction while
Ukrainians will continue to be displaced as internal and external
refugees (at least the Ukrainians can move freely to other
countries!).
2.
In a stalemate, NATO is tempted to escalate the war to achieve its
aim of weakening Russia, i.e. more advanced weaponry in larger
quantities will be sent to Ukraine. In turn, this will increase the
likelihood of Russians attacking NATO supply lines within Ukraine but
possibly also in Poland. Whether NATO starts protecting these vital
supply routes inside Ukraine with 'disguised' NATO personnel (say as
foreign mercenaries from the Ukrainian Foreign Legion) or
contractors is an open question? Another potential flashpoint.
3.
For its part, if Russia believes the war is shifting decisively away
it will fall back to a long standing Cold War strategic doctrine,
i.e. threaten to go nuclear. Subsequently, NATO will have to play
'nuclear' chicken over Ukraine and call Russia's bluff or threaten
escalation itself.
4.
Militarily the war can only get more dangerous. Both sides will feel
the need to escalate if the balance tips to the other party. NATO and
Russia have backed themselves into political corners domestically
with little flexibility for a face saving climb down.
5.
Oil, gas and food inflation will not subside while Western sanctions
remain in force. Poorer nations will suffer disproportionately. Sri
Lanka and Ecuador are examples of possible outcomes in many other
states. Europe will also suffer due to disruptions in its energy
supplies. Hence, European domestic discontent over the war will
increase the longer the war lasts.
6.
Post war (we'll have to think about a post-war world sometime!), the
world will be left with roaming hordes of trained and weaponized far
right extremists. These extremists, currently extolled as war heroes
fighting for freedom and democracy, will pose an immediate threat to
Europe's internal security as they transition from loose,
individually driven anti-state movements to battle hardened entities
with a chain of command (remember the origins of the Taliban?).
 |
| Source: Pexels |
To
be sure, in the current situation an early end to the war is
unlikely. Thus, one wonders who benefits more from a protracted
conflict, Russia or NATO?
In Russia war fatigue, especially
as sanctions start to bite, will grow with time. Russia will also
face problems recruiting soldiers as it runs out of able bodied
people due to mounting casualties as well as war fatigue.
Similarly,
Ukrainians too will run out of people. Perhaps that may precipitate
soldiers from friendly countries like Poland, etc. be given 'leave of
absence' to join the Ukrainian Foriegn Legion (of their own volition
of course!) to supplement diminishing personnel in the Ukrainian
army.
Moreover,
as the cost of the war starts to hit US / European budgets, support
for Ukraine will cool and feed an anti-war movement, especially as
inflation hits people's wallets. This will ultimately force political
leaders to shift focus from a military to a diplomatic solution.
However, that may be many months away.
The Ukraine war has
made the world a messy and dangerous place. Many countries will pay
the price for what is essentially another European war (great power
politics of the nineteenth century come to mind). One can only hope
sanity prevails and efforts shift towards a political solution sooner
rather than later. Only after peace is restored can the world can
begin the difficult process of rebuilding.
______________________
Imran
is an adventurer, blogger, consultant, guide, photographer, speaker,
traveler and a banker in his previous life. Imran lives in Singapore. He is available on Instagram
(@imranahmedsg) and can be contacted at imran.ahmed.sg@gmail.com.
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