Ukraine: a fight to the death!

As we head closer to the six month mark of the Ukraine war, the military confrontation is locked in a virtual stalemate. Despite Russia controlling about twenty percent of pre-war Ukraine there is little likelihood of a military victory by either side anytime soon.

NATO / US will fight until the last Ukrainian and the Russians are in no mood to talk either. The implications of this stubborn desire to fight are severe.

 Source: Pexels

1. Ukraine will suffer more widespread and intense destruction while Ukrainians will continue to be displaced as internal and external refugees (at least the Ukrainians can move freely to other countries!).

2. In a stalemate, NATO is tempted to escalate the war to achieve its aim of weakening Russia, i.e. more advanced weaponry in larger quantities will be sent to Ukraine. In turn, this will increase the likelihood of Russians attacking NATO supply lines within Ukraine but possibly also in Poland. Whether NATO starts protecting these vital supply routes inside Ukraine with 'disguised' NATO personnel (say as foreign mercenaries from the Ukrainian Foreign Legion) or contractors is an open question? Another potential flashpoint.

3. For its part, if Russia believes the war is shifting decisively away it will fall back to a long standing Cold War strategic doctrine, i.e. threaten to go nuclear. Subsequently, NATO will have to play 'nuclear' chicken over Ukraine and call Russia's bluff or threaten escalation itself.

4. Militarily the war can only get more dangerous. Both sides will feel the need to escalate if the balance tips to the other party. NATO and Russia have backed themselves into political corners domestically with little flexibility for a face saving climb down.

5. Oil, gas and food inflation will not subside while Western sanctions remain in force. Poorer nations will suffer disproportionately. Sri Lanka and Ecuador are examples of possible outcomes in many other states. Europe will also suffer due to disruptions in its energy supplies. Hence, European domestic discontent over the war will increase the longer the war lasts.

6. Post war (we'll have to think about a post-war world sometime!), the world will be left with roaming hordes of trained and weaponized far right extremists. These extremists, currently extolled as war heroes fighting for freedom and democracy, will pose an immediate threat to Europe's internal security as they transition from loose, individually driven anti-state movements to battle hardened entities with a chain of command (remember the origins of the Taliban?).

Source: Pexels

To be sure, in the current situation an early end to the war is unlikely. Thus, one wonders who benefits more from a protracted conflict, Russia or NATO?

In Russia war fatigue, especially as sanctions start to bite, will grow with time. Russia will also face problems recruiting soldiers as it runs out of able bodied people due to mounting casualties as well as war fatigue.

Similarly, Ukrainians too will run out of people. Perhaps that may precipitate soldiers from friendly countries like Poland, etc. be given 'leave of absence' to join the Ukrainian Foriegn Legion (of their own volition of course!) to supplement diminishing personnel in the Ukrainian army.

Moreover, as the cost of the war starts to hit US / European budgets, support for Ukraine will cool and feed an anti-war movement, especially as inflation hits people's wallets. This will ultimately force political leaders to shift focus from a military to a diplomatic solution. However, that may be many months away.

The Ukraine war has made the world a messy and dangerous place. Many countries will pay the price for what is essentially another European war (great power politics of the nineteenth century come to mind). One can only hope sanity prevails and efforts shift towards a political solution sooner rather than later. Only after peace is restored can the world can begin the difficult process of rebuilding.

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Imran is an adventurer, blogger, consultant, guide, photographer, speaker, traveler and a banker in his previous life. Imran lives in Singapore. He is available on Instagram (@imranahmedsg) and can be contacted at imran.ahmed.sg@gmail.com.