Ukraine: a fight to the death!

As we head closer to the six month mark of the Ukraine war, the military confrontation is locked in a virtual stalemate. Despite Russia controlling about twenty percent of pre-war Ukraine there is little likelihood of a military victory by either side anytime soon.

NATO / US will fight until the last Ukrainian and the Russians are in no mood to talk either. The implications of this stubborn desire to fight are severe.

 Source: Pexels

1. Ukraine will suffer more widespread and intense destruction while Ukrainians will continue to be displaced as internal and external refugees (at least the Ukrainians can move freely to other countries!).

2. In a stalemate, NATO is tempted to escalate the war to achieve its aim of weakening Russia, i.e. more advanced weaponry in larger quantities will be sent to Ukraine. In turn, this will increase the likelihood of Russians attacking NATO supply lines within Ukraine but possibly also in Poland. Whether NATO starts protecting these vital supply routes inside Ukraine with 'disguised' NATO personnel (say as foreign mercenaries from the Ukrainian Foreign Legion) or contractors is an open question? Another potential flashpoint.

3. For its part, if Russia believes the war is shifting decisively away it will fall back to a long standing Cold War strategic doctrine, i.e. threaten to go nuclear. Subsequently, NATO will have to play 'nuclear' chicken over Ukraine and call Russia's bluff or threaten escalation itself.

4. Militarily the war can only get more dangerous. Both sides will feel the need to escalate if the balance tips to the other party. NATO and Russia have backed themselves into political corners domestically with little flexibility for a face saving climb down.

5. Oil, gas and food inflation will not subside while Western sanctions remain in force. Poorer nations will suffer disproportionately. Sri Lanka and Ecuador are examples of possible outcomes in many other states. Europe will also suffer due to disruptions in its energy supplies. Hence, European domestic discontent over the war will increase the longer the war lasts.

6. Post war (we'll have to think about a post-war world sometime!), the world will be left with roaming hordes of trained and weaponized far right extremists. These extremists, currently extolled as war heroes fighting for freedom and democracy, will pose an immediate threat to Europe's internal security as they transition from loose, individually driven anti-state movements to battle hardened entities with a chain of command (remember the origins of the Taliban?).

Source: Pexels

To be sure, in the current situation an early end to the war is unlikely. Thus, one wonders who benefits more from a protracted conflict, Russia or NATO?

In Russia war fatigue, especially as sanctions start to bite, will grow with time. Russia will also face problems recruiting soldiers as it runs out of able bodied people due to mounting casualties as well as war fatigue.

Similarly, Ukrainians too will run out of people. Perhaps that may precipitate soldiers from friendly countries like Poland, etc. be given 'leave of absence' to join the Ukrainian Foriegn Legion (of their own volition of course!) to supplement diminishing personnel in the Ukrainian army.

Moreover, as the cost of the war starts to hit US / European budgets, support for Ukraine will cool and feed an anti-war movement, especially as inflation hits people's wallets. This will ultimately force political leaders to shift focus from a military to a diplomatic solution. However, that may be many months away.

The Ukraine war has made the world a messy and dangerous place. Many countries will pay the price for what is essentially another European war (great power politics of the nineteenth century come to mind). One can only hope sanity prevails and efforts shift towards a political solution sooner rather than later. Only after peace is restored can the world can begin the difficult process of rebuilding.

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Imran is an adventurer, blogger, consultant, guide, photographer, speaker, traveler and a banker in his previous life. Imran lives in Singapore. He is available on Instagram (@imranahmedsg) and can be contacted at imran.ahmed.sg@gmail.com.

US occupies Pakistan’s Miran Shah in effort to dismantle Haqqani group

The US has finally acted. Miran Shah, headquarters of the Taliban's Haqqani group, is now under US occupation. The American flag flutters at a temporary US base in the North Waziristan town.

Emboldened by its successful 'intervention' to kill Bin Laden, the US has decided 'enough is enough.' No more threats or cajoling by US Central Command, ISAF, Panetta or any other high ranking US official.

April 22 early morning, soldiers from the US 101 Airborne were inserted into Miran Shah with orders to secure the city center until reinforcements from the neighbouring Afghan town of Khost arrive and secure the Khost – Miran Shah main road. It is understood that up to 1,500 US soldiers will ultimately be based in Miran Shah, with most arriving from Afghanistan within the next three days.

An aerial shot of the Pakistani town of Miran Shah, North Waziristan

An unnamed source in the Department of Defense said, "This is not a temporary move. Following recent high profile attacks on Kabul it became essential for ISAF to secure a forward base and deny the outlawed Haqqani group operating space and flexibility."

US troops have already begun repairing an old World War Two British airfield so as to permit C-17 transport planes to use the facility. A fort occupying the town's high ground and manned by several hundred Pakistani Frontier Constabulary paramilitary troops has been left untouched.
Despite the incursion, US officials are hoping the Pakistani reaction will be tempered. "US troops have strict orders not to engage Pakistani security personnel in fire fights. Efforts for a commanders meeting between the two sides are on. We hope the Pakistanis understand this is not a move against Pakistan but against terrorism – our joint enemy."

The US appeal for rationality will likely fall on deaf ears in Pakistan.

The recent Bin Laden raid on Abbotabad, the 2010 slaying of several civilians by a CIA operative in Lahore and frequent US drone strikes in the tribal areas have soured Pakistan - US ties almost beyond repair. Anti-Americanism runs higher than at virtually any time in the last two decades – and this is in a country which burnt down the US Embassy in 1979.

It is yet unclear how Pakistan's security establishment will react to the US provocation. Sunday is a holiday in Pakistan. Most in the nation's capital Islamabad are still unaware of the US incursion.

However, it is sure to provide more ammunition to Islamists within and outside the military establishment.

A map of Pakistan's Federally Administered Tribal Areas, including the location of Miran Shah

US officials remain vague on their response if Pakistan's military starts covertly supporting armed anti-US lashkars (tribal militias) opposed to the expansion of the US presence from Afghanistan to Pakistan.

However, the US does seem to have prepared a diplomatic strategy to seize the initiative from Pakistan.

According to a confidential briefing, the State Department has agreed to support Afghanistan's contention that the Durand Line drawn in the 1890s is not an international border between the two nations. Additionally, Pakistani diplomats will be told in no uncertain terms that the US will support Baloch nationalist efforts for an independent state if 'push comes to shove.'

When asked about the US move, Pakistani security analyst Mian Iqbal told TGMS, "Undoubtedly, Obama is playing to his domestic gallery with US presidential elections around the corner. However, for Pakistan this is a disaster. At best, the country will erupt into violence for months, if not years. At worst, this is the beginning of end of Pakistan as we know it today. The Pakistani state, including the military, does not have the capacity to control the situation anymore. The world must be prepared for a manifold increase in global Islamic terrorism – it is the only weapon left for Pakistanis to salvage their tattered self-respect."

One hopes that US military strategists have evaluated all possible outcomes of the new, radical US strategy to quell violence in Afghanistan. Otherwise, it may just be further military escalation of an already unwinnable war.

*IMPORTANT NOTE TO READERS*

Alright, so the events described above did not occur, at least not yet. It describes a fictional (though entirely possible) scenario devised by the Grand Moofti.

Pakistan is fast moving into the global 'doghouse' – the same place the country found itself during its last decade of democracy: the 1990s. In such an environment, anything is possible and one cannot count on rationality from any actors, including the US.

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Imran is a business and management consultant. Through his work at Deodar Advisors, Imran improves the profitability of businesses operating in Singapore and the region. He can be reached at imran@deodaradvisors.com.