Book review: The China-Pakistan Axis by Andrew Small

Over the years the China-Pakistan relationship has become a virtual constant in foreign policy matters pertaining to South Asia. Yet it is a relationship about which little is known. That is partly by design – the two nations like to keep the exact nature of the relationship out of the spotlight – but also because few experts have taken the time to dissect it.

Source: Wikipedia

The China – Pakistan Axis by Andrew Small is a worthy attempt to shine light on the longstanding linkages between the two nations.

The book chronicles the development of the relationship over the decades since the 1960s in a changing geopolitical environment. Indeed, the author brackets the relationship into easy to understand ‘bite size’ segments based on underlying themes during particular periods.

By the end of Small’s work, the reader has a good understanding of the main tenets of the Pak – China relationship. Nonetheless, the book is at best an introduction and not an in depth analysis. To be sure, it is an entertaining and worthy introduction.

However, the subject warrants more detailed analyses including in individual aspects of the China – Pakistan relationship, e.g. foreign policy coordination; counter terror cooperation especially with regard to Uygur separatism; economic cooperation; and even military industrial production.

One hopes Small’s book will be the first in a series – by different authors - on what is until now an enigmatic relationship between two very different nations.

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Imran is a Singapore based Tour Guide with a special interest in arts and history. Imran has lived and worked in several countries during his past career as an international banker. He enjoys traveling, especially by train, as a way to feed his curiosity about the world and nurture his interest in photography. He is available on Instagram (@imran_traveller); twitter (@grandmoofti) and can be contacted at imran.ahmed.sg@gmail.com.

Konya: Mevlana Rumi's city

After Eskisehir, next stop was Konya. We traveled by a Turkish Railways high speed bullet train - yes, Turkish Railways have high speed trains running on several key routes connecting Ankara and Istanbul to other parts of the country. Konya, Mevlana Rumi's city, is connected via bullet trains to both Istanbul and Ankara.

Many observers suggest Konya is Turkey's most religiously conservative city – the heartbeat of Islam in Turkey.

The main square in Konya with the Selimiye Mosque in the foreground and the Mevlana Rumi shrine complex (with the green tower) in the background (Photo: Imran Ahmed)

Even before arriving in Konya I got a whiff of this conservatism while looking for hotels. One of the hotels stated on its booking conditions that couples must show proof of marriage at the time of check-in! (Ticket: check; passport: check; marriage certificate: check!)

The influence of Rumi is felt everywhere – not only in the in the notable absence of stores selling alcoholic beverages. Indeed, Konya thrives on religious tourism (and it does a good job at it too). Much of this tourism revolves around followers paying homage to Rumi at his tomb.

Rumi's tomb is ensconced in a complex, including a museum devoted to his life and the beliefs of his Mawlawiyah Order. Amazingly, entry to his tomb and attached museum is free (good on you, Turkey!).

Rumi's grave inside the shrine complex (Photo: Imran Ahmed)

Rumi was born in 1207 in Afghanistan – then a part of the Persian empire - and died in 1273 in Konya. Over his lifetime, Rumi developed a unique Islamic philosophy through his teachings. His philosophy was beautifully expressed through his poetry which was written mainly in Persian and Arabic, but also in Turkish and Greek. It were his teachings that ultimately led to the establishment of the Mawlawiyah Sufi order.

Though Rumi was born into a family of theologians – his father was a mystical theologian, author and teacher – it was Rumi's meeting and subsequent relationship with Shams al Din of Tabriz (1185 – 1248) which greatly affected his religious views. Shams, best known for his Forty Rules of Love, became Rumi's spiritual mentor and guide until his disappearance in 1247.

Undoubtedly, Konya is Rumi's city. It is hard to escape Rumi's influence – it permeates the entire city. Rumi's influence gives the city a unique character. To be sure, Konya has other attractions, e.g. museums and even some beautiful gardens (Alaeddin Hill), the city is one big shrine to the Great Mevlana.

Turk kahvesi or Turkish coffee served konya style (Photo: Imran Ahmed)

Enjoy Konya not only for the Mevlana but, more importantly, for what he represents: tolerance, positive reasoning, goodness, charity and Love.

Come, come again, whoever you are, come!

Heathen, fire worshipper or idolatrous, come!

Come even if you broke your penitence a hundred times,

Ours if the door of hope, come as you are. 

- Rumi

Stay tuned for my next post on Adana – home of the famous Adana Kebab!

Imran is a Singapore based Tour Guide with a special interest in arts and history. Imran has lived and worked in several countries during his career as an international banker. He enjoys traveling, especially by train, as a way to feed his curiosity about the world and nurture his interest in photography. Presently, Imran is spending ten weeks (March – May 2019) in Turkey exploring the country. He is available on twitter (@grandmoofti); Instagram(@imranahmedsg) and can be contacted at imran.ahmed.sg@gmail.com.

Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria and Mali: still more interventions to come?

Over a decade ago, the United States reacted to the 9/11 attacks with military interventions in Afghanistan and Iraq. Afghanistan's Taliban and Iraq's Saddam Hussein may be history but Islamic extremism is anything but weakened. So, while another attack on the US mainland may not have occurred in the intervening years, US foreign policy successes have been limited at best. Particular if curbing the growth of austere, extremist Islam is defined as a key US policy objective.

A balance sheet of events in the Islamic world since the turn of the century makes poor reading. In the years since America started to proactively (aka militarily) 'defend' its overseas interests, much bad stuff has happened. At the same time and just as important, positive events within the Islamic world have been in short supply.

Afghanistan: The war is winding down and the US seems only interested in making sure Pakistan releases all the Taliban captives held in its custody. Afghanistan may not be another Vietnam but it is hard to argue for a clear-cut American victory. In fact, Islamic radicalism in Pakistan has increased partly due to the effects of the US intervention in Afghanistan.

Islamic terrorism nearly brought Pakistan to its knees a few years ago, with the Pakistani Taliban attempting to move out of its traditional havens in the tribal areas and into 'settled' areas of Pakistan like the Swat Valley and Peshawar's outlying districts. The immediate danger may be past for Pakistan but political instability and Taliban inspired violence will negatively affect the country for some years to come.

Iraq: Saddam's gone and in its place is a nation divided along ethnic and sectarian lines. The Kurds have their piece. Sunni – Shia bloodletting continues with alarming frequency. Iraq's minority Christian community, a beneficiary of Saddam's secular nationalism, is struggling to maintain its freedoms.

The real winner in Iraq is former president Bush's arch-enemy: Iran. Shia politicians have taken over Iraqi state institutions and provide Iran a potent platform through which to play the centuries old Persian – Arab rivalry. The heightened Shia – Sunni tensions in the Arab Gulf, particularly Bahrain, can be attributed partly to Iran's greater presence within the Arab world.

Egypt: It seems Egyptians wanted democracy as much as their Iraqi brothers. Egypt did not wait for American troops to bring them democratic freedoms. Instead, following Tunisia's lead, Egyptians took to the streets and brought down longstanding dictator, Mubarak. Subsequently, Mubarak's nemesis, the Muslim Brotherhood has assumed control of the Egyptian state.

The 'legitimization' of the Muslim Brotherhood through the formation of Egypt's government is significant. Arguably, the Brotherhood is the spiritual Godfather of Al-Qaeeda and other Islamic extremist offshoots. How the Brotherhood's leadership uses its new found powers, prestige and organs of the Egyptian state may be decisive in the battle for Islam's silent majority.

Syria: Another bastion of secular Arab nationalism is tottering and on the verge of collapse. In Syria, Western intervention has been crucial in allowing Islamic extremists to create another battleground and, possibly, ultimately control the reins of a recognized nation- state. Islam's historic Sunni - Shia rivalry will most certainly be exacerbated by events in the Levant as Syria's civil war deepens. As in Iraq and Egypt, Syrian Christians will be big losers as Islamist influence further pervades the country.

Africa: Africa has been an unfortunate continent in so many ways for so long. Islamic extremism can now be added to the woes of the African continent.

From Nigeria in the west to Somalia in the east, there is no denying radical Islam has found itself a new playground. Lest one wishes to give Africa the benefit of the doubt, one can throw Mali into the mix for good measure. Oh and there are also thousands of unaccounted weapons and trained jobless Tuareg fighters – formerly part of Libyan leader Gaddafi's military – looking for a piece of land to settle.

Libya itself is not handling the transition to democracy too well. Essentially the country is divided into fiefdoms controlled by different tribes and groupings, with the active participation of Sunni extremists.

Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC): The GCC is mentioned not because several Islamists have been arrested in the normally sedate United Arab Emirates (UAE). Or the troubles in Bahrain continue and threaten to spill over into Saudi Arabia. No, the GCC is important because of Saudi Arabia's influence (and cash) within the wider Islamic world.

In Saudi Arabia, the most pertinent issue is the pace of social reforms and the development of civil society. Surely, reforms are proceeding apace. Women have been nominated into the country's consultative assembly. Nonetheless, real reforms in empowering women and co-opting females into mainstream society are still missing from the agenda. Separate but equal is not only expensive but does not work.

9/11 is understood primarily as an act of war against the US and western interests – and it most certainly was such an attack. However, it is the Islamic world which has suffered the greatest repercussions since September. The show of aggression not only prompted western military interventions in a host of Muslim countries – the list appears to grow annually – but has resulted in introspective soul searching by the Islamic world. During this intellectual exercise, Muslims have killed each other in large numbers with both randomness and precision. Undoubtedly, all the blame cannot be placed at Washington's door. However, the US might better serve international security by nudging reforms in the Saudi kingdom rather than sending troops to foreign shores at the first hint of trouble. The ripple effects from a reforming Saudi society will be positively felt far and wide in the Islamic world.

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Imran is a business and management consultant. Through his work at Deodar Advisors and the Deodar Diagnostic, Imran improves profits of businesses operating in Singapore and the region. He can be reached at imran@deodaradvisors.com. 

US occupies Pakistan’s Miran Shah in effort to dismantle Haqqani group

The US has finally acted. Miran Shah, headquarters of the Taliban's Haqqani group, is now under US occupation. The American flag flutters at a temporary US base in the North Waziristan town.

Emboldened by its successful 'intervention' to kill Bin Laden, the US has decided 'enough is enough.' No more threats or cajoling by US Central Command, ISAF, Panetta or any other high ranking US official.

April 22 early morning, soldiers from the US 101 Airborne were inserted into Miran Shah with orders to secure the city center until reinforcements from the neighbouring Afghan town of Khost arrive and secure the Khost – Miran Shah main road. It is understood that up to 1,500 US soldiers will ultimately be based in Miran Shah, with most arriving from Afghanistan within the next three days.

An aerial shot of the Pakistani town of Miran Shah, North Waziristan

An unnamed source in the Department of Defense said, "This is not a temporary move. Following recent high profile attacks on Kabul it became essential for ISAF to secure a forward base and deny the outlawed Haqqani group operating space and flexibility."

US troops have already begun repairing an old World War Two British airfield so as to permit C-17 transport planes to use the facility. A fort occupying the town's high ground and manned by several hundred Pakistani Frontier Constabulary paramilitary troops has been left untouched.
Despite the incursion, US officials are hoping the Pakistani reaction will be tempered. "US troops have strict orders not to engage Pakistani security personnel in fire fights. Efforts for a commanders meeting between the two sides are on. We hope the Pakistanis understand this is not a move against Pakistan but against terrorism – our joint enemy."

The US appeal for rationality will likely fall on deaf ears in Pakistan.

The recent Bin Laden raid on Abbotabad, the 2010 slaying of several civilians by a CIA operative in Lahore and frequent US drone strikes in the tribal areas have soured Pakistan - US ties almost beyond repair. Anti-Americanism runs higher than at virtually any time in the last two decades – and this is in a country which burnt down the US Embassy in 1979.

It is yet unclear how Pakistan's security establishment will react to the US provocation. Sunday is a holiday in Pakistan. Most in the nation's capital Islamabad are still unaware of the US incursion.

However, it is sure to provide more ammunition to Islamists within and outside the military establishment.

A map of Pakistan's Federally Administered Tribal Areas, including the location of Miran Shah

US officials remain vague on their response if Pakistan's military starts covertly supporting armed anti-US lashkars (tribal militias) opposed to the expansion of the US presence from Afghanistan to Pakistan.

However, the US does seem to have prepared a diplomatic strategy to seize the initiative from Pakistan.

According to a confidential briefing, the State Department has agreed to support Afghanistan's contention that the Durand Line drawn in the 1890s is not an international border between the two nations. Additionally, Pakistani diplomats will be told in no uncertain terms that the US will support Baloch nationalist efforts for an independent state if 'push comes to shove.'

When asked about the US move, Pakistani security analyst Mian Iqbal told TGMS, "Undoubtedly, Obama is playing to his domestic gallery with US presidential elections around the corner. However, for Pakistan this is a disaster. At best, the country will erupt into violence for months, if not years. At worst, this is the beginning of end of Pakistan as we know it today. The Pakistani state, including the military, does not have the capacity to control the situation anymore. The world must be prepared for a manifold increase in global Islamic terrorism – it is the only weapon left for Pakistanis to salvage their tattered self-respect."

One hopes that US military strategists have evaluated all possible outcomes of the new, radical US strategy to quell violence in Afghanistan. Otherwise, it may just be further military escalation of an already unwinnable war.

*IMPORTANT NOTE TO READERS*

Alright, so the events described above did not occur, at least not yet. It describes a fictional (though entirely possible) scenario devised by the Grand Moofti.

Pakistan is fast moving into the global 'doghouse' – the same place the country found itself during its last decade of democracy: the 1990s. In such an environment, anything is possible and one cannot count on rationality from any actors, including the US.

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Imran is a business and management consultant. Through his work at Deodar Advisors, Imran improves the profitability of businesses operating in Singapore and the region. He can be reached at imran@deodaradvisors.com.